2016 initial win total over/unders are up

Submitted by SAMgO on May 20th, 2016 at 11:36 AM

The Golden Nugget Casino has released their opening over/unders.


Clemson -- 10 (-120 over, EVEN under)
Florida State -- 10 (-120/EVEN)
Tennessee -- 10 (-110/ -110)
Oklahoma -- 10 (+110/-130)
LSU -- 9.5 (-140/+120)
Michigan -- 9.5 (-120/EVEN)
Alabama -- 9.5 (-110/-110)
UCLA -- 9 (-120/EVEN)
Louisville-- 9 (-110/-110)
Notre Dame -- 9 (+105/-125)
Baylor -- 9 (+105/-125)
Houston -- 9 (+130/-150)
Georgia -- 8.5 (-145/+125)
Ohio State-- 8.5 (-115/-105)
Oregon -- 8.5 (EVEN/-120)
TCU -- 8.5 (+105/-125)
Oklahoma State -- 8.5 (+110/-130)
Florida -- 8 (+105/-125)
Stanford -- 8 (+110/-130)
Michigan State-- 8 (+115/-135)
USC -- 7.5 (-120/EVEN)
Ole Miss -- 7.5 (-105/-115)
Auburn -- 7 (-120/EVEN)
UNLV -- 4.5 (-130/+110)


All SEC teams -- 103.5 (-110/-110)
All Big 10 teams -- 97.5 (-110/-110)
All ACC teams -- 96.5 (-110/-110)
All Pac-12 teams -- 81.5 (-110/-110)
All Big 12 teams -- 69.5 (-110/-110)
All Power Five Conference teams -- 446.5 (-110/-110)





May 20th, 2016 at 11:55 AM ^

I wouldn't say Oklahoma is a likely loss. OSU isn't replacing those they've lost with schmucks. They've had good recruiting classes nearly every year. I think Oklahoma and the Michigan games are toss ups. They should beat MSU IMO. Everybody else, I think they are heavy favorites against. If they go less than 4-0 against Wisconsin, PSU, N'W and Nebraska, they shoudl be disappointed with themselves IMO. Those are not good teams. I think their O/U should be at 9.5 like ours. 


May 20th, 2016 at 1:41 PM ^

Also, it's subjective but I wouldn't say that a 51% chance of a loss means it's a "likely" loss. There's still a pretty good chance they could win. I would put likely upwards of 65%. 

Again, subjetive so we just may have different ideas of "likely"


May 20th, 2016 at 11:56 AM ^

Yes it will, Nebraska isn't good, Northwestern isn't good, Penn State isn't good, and Michigan state lost almost as much as they did but have worse recruiting.  OSU will be favored in every single one of those games, I'd bet a couple they will be double digit favorites.  Going worse than 4-2 in that stretch would be an abject failure of a season for them.  They are more likley to go undefeated than finish with 8 wins imo.


May 20th, 2016 at 12:38 PM ^

(For the record, I still think it's unlikely they go 8-4, my guess would be 10-2 or 9-3)

However, it is possible. Let me help you picture it. 

Loss #1:

  • An incredibly young and inexperienced (albeit talented) team has to travel to fresh out of the College Football Playoff (and probable Big 12 Champion) Oklahoma in week 3 of the season at night in a raucous environment. (Probable loss)

Losses #2 and #3

(lose 2 of the 3 following Big Ten Road games)

  • At Wisconsin. Very loud, night game against the most talented team in the Big Ten West. Top Ten OSU teams have gone to Madison and lost a few times in the last decade. Still fairly early in the season, so the youth and inexperience will still be testing the Buckeyes at this point. (50-50 toss up game)
  • At Penn State. Again, very loud, night game (white out) on the road relatively early in the season (and only one week after Wisconsin). I know you're all saying "But James Franklin. LOL PSU will lose by 60." Well, you may be right, but remember Urban Meyer needed overtime to defeat Penn State in his last visit and without an absolutely terrible officiating call early in the game that gave OSU a touchdown, Meyer probably would've lost. And this was his 2014 national championship team; almost no chance his team this year will be as good as the one that year. (Favored to win, but not by much)
  • At Michigan State. I see this loss as less likely, but after last year, anything is possible. Like it or not, Dantonio is the only coach that Urban Meyer does not have a winning record against in the Big Ten (they are 2-2 against each other). They could be caught looking ahead to the Michigan game, especially if we were to have beaten MSU a few weeks prior/MSU was no longer in contention for the East. (Favored to win, but not by much)

Loss #4

  • Harbaugh delivers.

8-4 isn't super likely to me, but writing this all out it doesn't seem like an insignificant chance. 




May 20th, 2016 at 1:25 PM ^

PSU could have another very difficult year.  They've got a new defensive coordinator who left Illinois because he wasn't given full DC responsibilites, coming in to replace the very capable Bob Shoop.  I don't have any idea how good or bad the guy is, but not being good enough to be the full fledged DC (they wanted to keep him as co-DC) at Illinois is a red flag.  And they're going to a completely new offense, having hired a new offensive coordinator as well.  

I like how their QB looks in limited snaps, and while I was watching the spring game they seemed high on the WR's.  But the former has almost no experience and the team still has a lot of holes.  I think the probability of an OSU win is higher than you have above. 

Spirit of 69

May 20th, 2016 at 12:04 PM ^

They'll go 4-0 against Nebraska, Northwestern, PSU, and Wisconsin alone. Ohio State under Urban Meyer does not have to rebuild, they'll be fully stocked with NFL talent next year as well, the same as last year. I don't expect them to post any less than 9 wins for the foreseeable future given the caliber of recruits they bring in and the ability of their coach. It's unfortunate, but it's how it is.


May 20th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^

If you gave me a million dollars every time Ohio State won the B1G... I'd find a way to live with it.

Actually, I could probably graph my utility curve on this. It would look like a pretty standard work/leisure backward bending utility curve.



May 20th, 2016 at 11:43 AM ^

Exactly what I thought. Even if they lose to both us and MSU (unlikely) and lose at Oklahoma, who else is beating them? And what are the odds of all those things happening at once? It's a crazy line. I would set it at like 10.

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May 20th, 2016 at 11:59 AM ^

The line tells you how much "profit" you make.  If you win a bet, they give you your initial wager back as well.

Think of a bet with a friend--you don't give him your money unless you lose, because the friend trusts you.  The casino doesn't have any reason to trust you, so they get to hold the amount you wagered until the bet is settled.

So if you bet "over" on Michigan, you hand them (say) $120 today.  If the "over" wins, then they give you the $120 you bet plus the $100 you won.  So you "profit" $100, but they got to hold your $120 for about 6 months--from today through the end of the season.


May 20th, 2016 at 11:56 AM ^

The casino takes 10% off the top. A standard line would be -110/-110. In some cases, like season win totals, every half point move is so significant that they need to add some "juice" to the lines to influence betting on each side, which is why you'd see a -120 to dissuade people slightly from taking the bet or +110 or EVEN to encourage people taking it.