2016 FB Realistic Recruiting Pool via 247 "Warm Interest" V4.0

Hello football fans. This is version 4.0 of a monthly segment I will do of  UM offers that are (as a floor) receiving "modest" interest, utilizing 247's "warm interest" gauge.  Original purpose of this was to winnow down the 100s of offers Michigan gives to a small pool of players where there is at least a whiff of a chance.  But after this massive run of commits in June Harbaugh has done much of that work already for the 2016s.

All caveats, warnings, and wag of the fingers about this methodology can be found in earlier versions:

• May 22: 3.0
• Apr 24: 2.0
• Mar 26: 1.0

Aquaman was kind enough to comment on methodology of the "warm interest" on the V1.0 so I'll copy/paste that here:

The "temps" are usually set by how our analysts agree on where a certain prospect is leaning, but if a prospect reaches out and wants his page a certain way, we always go with their wishes. 

Good example is Jeffrey McCulloch (http://247sports.com/Player/Jeffrey-McCulloch-47648). Michigan is in his top group with Texas, Bama, LSU and probably A&M among others, but he wanted his page to reflect that he's even with everyone, even though we know they're not. 

It's about as good a basic gauge as you'll get on a prospect's interest. We try to avoid situations where it appears the interest is being embellished. In fact, I'd probably move Curtis Robinson and Isaiah Chambers among others to "cool" at this point.

The one group this methodology misses are those committed elsewhere who are strongly considering  UM, so we play those by ear.

-----------------------

When we last met in May I wrote this about the lack of commits (at the time 6, with 0 in the prior 30 days):

Hopefully some movement happens around camp time in June.

Well that escalated quickly.

-----------------------------

This period saw an avalanche of commits from no stars to borderline 5 stars - 14 in all, and June isn't over yet!  All parts of the country were represented except for the sinkhole that is OH.  The vast lack of defensive recruits was addressed, albeit with a lot of "under the radar" types whereas the offense - esp OL - picked up HS studs galore.  With that said with recent data unearthed on how Harbaugh seems to have a "rolling commitment" system in place to SOME degree, some of the names below will most likely not be in the class come Feb 16 - both based on their own decisions and apparently Harbaugh's.  It will surely be interesting to see the Harbaugh @ UM precedent and how it compares to Stanford.

Changes since V2.0:

• New commits - 14.   OT Ben Bredeson, OT Devery Hamilton, OG Michael Onwenu, TE Sean McKeon,  ATH Chris Evans, ATH Victor Viramontes, ATH Kiante Enis, DE Ron Johnson, DL Rashad Weaver, LB Dytarious Johnson, CB Antwaine Richardson, CB Benjamin St Juste, S Devin Gil, S Josh Metellus.
• New Michigan "leaders" in ballz - WR Ahmir Mitchell, WR Brad Hawkins, TE Naseir Upshur, DE Terrell Lucas, CB Tony Butler* (Pitt commit)
• New warm interest (Offense) - WR Chase Claypool, WR Grant Holloway, OT Landon Dickerson, OG Johncarlo Valentin
• New warm interest (Defense) - DE Terrell Lucas, DE Marlon Davidson, DE Isaiah Chambers, LB Erroll Thompson, LB Jeffrey McCulloch, LB Jonathan Smith, CB Jared Mayden
• No longer Warm - RB Toks Akinribade (Iowa), RB Vavae Malepeai (Oregon), WR Donnie Corley (MSU lean), WR Austin Mack (OSU), WR Donald Stewart (Stanford lean), OT Will Fries (PSU), OG Josh Sills (W. Va), DE Erick Fowler (LSU), DE Khalid Kareem (Bama), LB Jaquan Yulee (Bama), LB Camilo Eifler (Wash lean), LB Lamar Winston (Oregon lean), CB David Long (West coast schools), S Andrew Pryts (PSU lean)

OFFENSE  (18 players, 6 UM is a "leader")

DEFENSE  (24 players, 3 UM is a "leader" + 1 PK)

*Bolded dudes who UM is a crystall ballz leader, i.e. >50/50.

I have the crystal ballz leader and # of predictions on the far right of the table.  The # of predictions is helpful as a 75%/25% split among 4 people is not as useful as that same split among 20 people.

The part where I overanalyze:

• Obviously tons of changes since version 3.0.  The offense seems pretty much set aside from holding 1 line position for Davis, 1 TE lean with Upshur, and settling the WR derby.  OSU seems to be running out of room for WRs but Meyer could certainly continue to work WR Mitchell just out of spite.  UM seems to making good progress with WR Hawkins.  So finishing out the offense with those 4 players above would be ideal and at that point you just are working to not lose offensive commits via flips until Feb.  
• The defensive prospect list (ex LBs) was sparse a month ago and while spots are filling up fast this is where almost all of UM's "WTF" (i.e. "Trust Harbaugh"!) offers have gone.  UM did not have many prospects favoring them on the defense last month - esp in the secondary - and aside from DE Ron Johnson picked up a slew of 0-3 star mafia types.  That may just be the reality of what players are currently interested in UM in this cycle, as aside from the LB group and Rashan Gary not a lot of top 300 type prospects seem headed this way. 
• If CB Hill flips it seems like it will be MSU not UM at this point.  Butler has called a OSU offer his dream school but crystal balls still like the UM flip.  While some on message boards seem excited about DE Xavier Kelly, UM has lost some crystal balls (currently none) while MSU and Oklahoma picked up some for him.  Bama has entered the fray for LB Dontavious Jackson so prospects dim there immediately.  LB Jones has been a "lean" for months and was on campus for 5 days recently and LB Bush is starting to see some nice activity away from legacy FSU to Michigan.
• Our 2 guys seemingly most at risk are FB/LB Reese - who apparently wants to play LB and has been guaranteed that at Louisville while at UM its "an option to begin you with" and Evans who seems to be waiting on a ND offer.   And a lot of these lower rated defensive players may be "at risk" in the opposite direction if Harbaugh follows his Stanford pattern of moving on to higher prospects later in the recruiting cycle.  That said, at this moment there are just not a ton of "higher" rated defensive prospects interested in UM - esp in the secondary - to replace the current crop with, even if Harbaugh has that intention.
• As stated last time around, very high chance UM is shut out of OH completely this year unless Butler flips.  He is the only OH guy in the entire list above and obviously not a plan A for Meyer.
• If UM lands all 4 offensive players in bullet point 1, PK Nordin, 1 LB (Bush or Jones), and 1 DT (we need one, if not Gary) it would put this class at 27.  Assume 2 decommits and you get back to #Fab25.