2014 Gardner = 2015 Rudock?

Submitted by ST3 on October 15th, 2015 at 6:40 PM
Category Player A Player B (pro-rated to full season)
Ranking in FBS 94 98
Comp Pct. 61.5 62.0
Yards per attempt 6.7 6.6
Yards passing 1896 1135 (2270)
QB rating 118.8 120.4
TD/INT 10/15 5/6  (10/12)
Times sacked 26 8 (16)

OK, this is getting a little eerie. Player A is obviously Devin Gardner's 2014 season because I don't need to pro-rate his stats over a full season. Player B is Jake Rudock so far this season. They are the same guy. Is it possible Gardner was MGoCloned?

I've been much more content with Rudock's play so far this year than I was with Gardner's last season. I guess winning cures all. Defense and special teams have made a world of difference, but you know that already.

P.S. Gardner averaged 2.6 yards per carry last year to Rudock's 2.7 this year. I didn't excise sack yards, but they are handled the same for both so it's an OK comparison.

Comments

BlueKoj

October 15th, 2015 at 9:01 PM ^

It is an unfair comparison because of the coaching. No player pre-Harbaugh should be compared to post-Harbaugh players. Just look at AJ Williams. He's not the same guy...and it is mostly due to Harbaugh & Co vs. Hoke & Co.

OP's post is irrelevant and meaningless to predict future performance or the outcome of Saturday. There is nothing to conclude except, "WHO'S GOT IT BETTER THAN US?!?!?"

ST3

October 15th, 2015 at 7:05 PM ^

are always dangerous, but multiplying by 2 seems like the simplest extrapolation to make. The int he threw that bounced off of Houma's hands wasn't exactly his fault. Those things happen.

I was surprised by the sack numbers. Over a whole season, Rudock projects to be sacked one fewer times per game than Gardner. Was PTSD (post traumatic sack disorder) from 2013 really that bad, or was it awful coaching from Borges? And if coaching is the reason, why isn't Rudock doing any better than the 98th rated QB? Harbaugh is a QB guru, after all. I just think it's an interesting comparison. Lots to think about and discuss and hopefully help pass the time until Saturday. But for those that spent more time in the DG appreciation thread, I can see how this feels like well worn ground.

Mr Miggle

October 15th, 2015 at 7:17 PM ^

I thought Devin was actually decent last season except for the interceptions. Rudock is doing better there even using the extrapolation method that makes it look the worst. I think we could say Rudock's overall play is trending in the right direction. I don't remember having that feeling last year. This was right about the time Devin got benched in favor of Shane. 

Hail Harbo

October 15th, 2015 at 7:36 PM ^

Yeah, it might suck to do so, but you have to give those the same weight as bonehead blundering pick sixes.  Here's why, for every "unlucky" INT there are lucky drops and lucky deflections.  You don't count the sure INT that is dropped as an INT, do you?  Then do count the unluckly deflection that is an INT as an INT.  

BTW, Brian tries the same logical fallacy in his write ups.  Actually most people do, thankfully the raw numbers are objective and emotional free.

michiganman001

October 15th, 2015 at 6:48 PM ^

I think someone pointed out earlier how statistically Gardner and Rudock are basically having the same type of season. I guess a difference is that other than really App State and OSU, Gardner had pretty mediocre stats all year, however Rudock has had games were he completes around 70% for 7 ypg and one or two TD's, and then has games were he is missing 5 yd throws

Mgoblue2az

October 15th, 2015 at 7:00 PM ^

Hopefully the biggest difference is that rudocks interception numbers are just high at the beginning of the season and improve over the course of the year. Gardner always started really well and ended up racking the interceptions up during big ten play. I think that's the difference we are looking at.

ST3

October 15th, 2015 at 7:56 PM ^

I went back and looked at the Gardner appreciation thread. You are right that he compared them after 5 games. This comparison is to Gardner's full season and it is easier to project a full season from Rudock (we're halfway through, multiply numbers by 2.) I also added the QB rating and their rank among FBS QBs. It's fairly redundant and the post is getting negged as a result.

The Dirty Nil

October 15th, 2015 at 7:28 PM ^

The TD/Int calculation for Rudock is a bit misleading for obvious reasons. The biggest difference is the comparison in competence between this year's offense and last year's offense as many whole.

mm92.

October 15th, 2015 at 7:40 PM ^

I feel so much comfortable with Rudock than I ever did with Gardner. I will never understand the love this board had with Gardner. I know the coaching staff was incompetent but the guy was also terrible.