2014 Football Road Record

Submitted by Tuebor on December 3rd, 2013 at 9:32 AM

What do you think the road record will be for Michigan next season?  Hoke is 6-8 on the road at Michigan and 1-2 (hopefully 2-2 by next season) at neutral sites. This averages close to 2-3 on the road each year.  With next seasons brutal road schedule 2-3 might be the ceiling.  I feel like if i put the +/- at 1.5 safe money is on the over and at 2.5 safe money is on the under. 

 

@ Notre Dame - Loss, their last game against us with Everett Golson back.  Early season let down.

@ Rutgers - Win, (5-6 AAC) This is likely a win against an inferior opponent, knock on wood.

@ MSU - Loss, Their defense takes a step back but is still Al Borges kryptonite.  We do score an offensive touchdown though.

@ Northwestern - No idea, should be a win but the Pat Fitzgerald improbability drive could have other plans.

@ OSU - Loss, They lose Hyde but can we stop Braxton Miller?

Comments

bubblelevel

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^

Hey ! Let's get started being a downer and douche bag for next seasons projections too !  Hurray !

Really - your projections are based on your and the board's pitiful mob mentality this season.  Get over it.  You saw what the team can do Saturday.  Shit happens during seasons.  Borges is going to be OC'ing for his career and should be pretty close to what we saw Saturday.

Your analysis of teams is sophomoric.  

Worst case is at most 2 losses.  Realistic based on this team's roster and the opponents is 1 loss.

Braxton Miller sans Carlos Hyde is a loss next season if that's the case.  They guys on OSU behind Hyde are not in his category.  No Hyde Saturday and we would have won by 2 touchdowns.

mGrowOld

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^

2-3.  There is nothing yet in Hoke's resume at Michigan that should give us any sense of false security that we're going to turn things around and start winning road games against quality opponents. We have yet to win even one road game against a team with a better than 500 record.

Until I see it happen once I'm betting against it happening.  

O Fo Sho

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:16 AM ^

fall off of a cliff next year.  They con't have the recruiting to remain consistant.  They are likely losing 7 from their defense and more importantly Narduzzi (hopefully).  State could easily be a 6-6 team next year. 

If our OL gels (i know, I know) we could be looking at a season like State is having this year.  We need to start winning on the road....i think that happens with maturity and we will start to see that next year.  ALSO- we just seem to have ND's number lately.  Devin will go for 450 yds on them and our D is going to make a mightly leap forward next year. 

Ty Butterfield

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:29 AM ^

MSU has out coached Hoke and Co in every game so far. It took a favorable spot on 4th down and a great catch by Dileo to win last year. Michigan has not scored a TD against MSU in 2 years. Sorry but I don't see Staee falling off a cliff.

O Fo Sho

December 3rd, 2013 at 1:31 PM ^

where was State just last year??  State is GREAT defensively this year, no question.  However, their recruiting doens't and won't allow them to be consistantly good.  They are losing 7 starters, most of all will be NFL players.  They are losing their defensive guru.  They most certainly will take a step back. 

You comment like they've been getting double digit W's every year.  They were average a year ago and lose a ton.  They have done a great job coaching up players. 

Ty Butterfield

December 3rd, 2013 at 2:39 PM ^

Dantonio seems to be able to find the players he wants for his system. If the coaching staff at State can get them to perform well then star rankings do not matter. The suckitude of the RR years helped Dantonio immensely. Even last year when State went 7-6 Michigan could not score a TD. Sorry if I don't buy the "MSU is going away" argument.

Reader71

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:18 AM ^

I could see a loss @Rutgers. I am always weary of away games to stadiums no one on the team has ever seen before. This is why I thought we'd win our home game against Nebraska in 2011 and lose the road trip in 2012. I hope Rutgers is just really bad.

I don't think @NW is a real road game.

Perkis-Size Me

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:21 AM ^

At this point, with this coaching staff, every road game is a tossup, from OSU to Purdue. Our road performances are so woeful that until proven otherwise, I have zero faith that this staff can win a road game against a good opponent.

Call me a pessimist, but given the results over the past three years, I also consider myself a realist.

denardogasm

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:30 AM ^

Not sure why we'd be worried about Gholson. He was never that amazing and now hasn't played for a year and we get him early. My feelings on Sparty depend on Narduzzi's status. Northwestern is what they are and have ways been. Miller didn't beat us this year, Hyde did, and I hope the loss of him will be more of a loss than the gain of home field advantage. These are my thoughts but after this year I offer no predictions.

Trebor

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:33 AM ^

ND - Going out on a limb and saying we win. Golson is back, but he wasn't great by any stretch last year, so I'm not convinced he's the solution. Plus they lose Tuitt and Nix with no apparent replacement.

Rutgers - This should be a win. They were a mediocre AAC team, so they should be a mediocre-at-best B1G team.

MSU - Sadly, we contine this awful stretch of losing. It's no longer a "let's spend 364 days gameplanning for this," it's just a team with a great defense and generally effective-enough offense. As long as Dantonio is there, winning in East Lansing isn't going to be easy.

Northwestern - Win. No more Kain Colter, and Siemian isn't the Unstoppable Throw God he was last year. Venric Mark returning is scary, but without a truly mobile QB he's not the same threat from the RB spot.

OSU - Loss. No more Hyde, but they're not exactly hurting for offensive playmakers, as it would be incredibly surprising to see Miller go to the NFL when he doesn't have a viable position. 11 games to get a new OL to gel, plus returning all that DL talent, and it's going to be tough to win in Columbus.

exmtroj

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:43 AM ^

In his fourth year, after keeping Borges, he needs to win in South Bend, East Lansing, and Columbus or pack his bags. No more excuses, start winning these games.

exmtroj

December 3rd, 2013 at 11:44 AM ^

Not my expectation, because I don't think this coaching staff is anywhere near good enough to do it, but it's the standard I would set if I was Dave Brandon. Hoke's road record and record against rivals is just beyond pathetic, and the excuses are getting old.

I can see it now though, one year from now we're 7-5 again and gearing up for the B Dubs Bowl and everyone here is just saying: "Well, Lewan left...let's just give it another year or two and see." No, fuck that. WIN.

Lucky Socks

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:57 AM ^

@ND - I think their defense will take a step back. I don't think Gholston is a game changer, and I think our defense takes a big step forward. It'll be a challenge. But I think we win

@RU - Win

@NW - Win

@MSU - Their defense also loses a ton. Their offense might take a step forward, but I don't think they'll ever be anything much more than effective and efficient (i.e not scary, explosive). Win, we need it.

@OSU - I think they'll be better. But I also believe we'll be much better. I think we'll be good enough to beat a great team on the road. Loss, but it's a push.

I have a reputation for being an optimist. I think our program takes a permanent step forward next year. 10 wins, even with the schedule. At least 2-1 versus rivals. And don't underestimate a team that has been beaten up verbally and physically as underclassmen. Just like 2011, I think we'll have a chip on our shoulder - except we'll also be a better team across the board.

TorontoBlue

December 3rd, 2013 at 10:59 AM ^

My son and I have met in AA for a football weekend every season since 2002.  With the crappy home slate for 2014, we are thinking its time for a road trip to an away game.  Targeting ND for  the series finale or the first-ever visit to Rutgers.  Thoughts, anyone?

GO BLUE!

Tuebor

December 3rd, 2013 at 11:09 AM ^

The crappy home slate is why I'm not getting season tickets this year.  It will be cheaper to just buy PSU night game tickets on stubhub.  The rest of the games will be going for below face value in the secondary markets. 

bo_lives

December 3rd, 2013 at 11:21 AM ^

No one is concerned that Hoke has not won a game on the road against a team that finished above .500, in THREE years?

We'll be on the road against our two Rivals who combined have one loss in 2013. MSU has eaten Borges's lunch three years straight and OSU may still be undefeated under Meyer and the reigning national champs...

Not trying to be a negative Nancy, but when your OC has had like, 10 games under 300 yards and like, 5 games without TDs... and the head coach is HAPPY with the job the guy is doing... well, what can you expect really.

My prediction is that the line still sucks, and Space Coyote will have to explain to everyone how you have to wait for that magical year when all 5 of your offensive linemen are 5* RS Seniors with three years starting experience in order to average above 3 yards/attempt. It would not shock me if we lost all of our road games, though I will probably still go to at least 3 of them.

FlexUM

December 3rd, 2013 at 11:32 AM ^

If they lose 3 out of 5 of those there should be wholesale changes to the staff and a complete re-evalatuion of the direction of the program.

Tuebor

December 3rd, 2013 at 12:08 PM ^

That would mean you predict us to go 7-0 at home no? I see 2 sure Wins and 5 games that this year makes me questionable on. 

App State - Win, no doubt about it

Miami (OH) - Win, See above

Utah - 33 in sagarin ratings with a 5-7 record in the Pac12,

Minnesota - No longer a guaranteed win.

Penn State - Will the sanction bomb ever hit?

Indiana - If they find even a slightly below average defense look out

Maryland - 7-5 in the ACC.

Blue Mike

December 3rd, 2013 at 1:55 PM ^

Wait, why are we so concerned with Minnesota?  Is this what our pessimism and negativity has come to?  People do remember that we handled them pretty easily this year, at home, right?  Other than the one march down the field, we kept them in check pretty well.  They went on a run after that against the weakest part of the schedule, but let's not make them out to be a 10-win team or anything.

LSAClassOf2000

December 3rd, 2013 at 11:35 AM ^

Well, if you used the Sagarin numbers right now to predict 2014 - which is a not the best thing to do because of the lack of 2014 data, so take the conclusion for what it is worth - we could likely be 2-3. We would be favored against Rutgers and Northwestern, a slight underdog against ND and a sizeable underdog against MSU and Ohio State. Again, that's based on present data, which may or may not mean as much in 2014. There's still much we don't know. 

WolvinLA2

December 3rd, 2013 at 11:43 AM ^

Yeah, not a bad exercise but not particularly telling either.  All teams lose players, and it's still unknown how many that will be, though it's possible (if not likely) that all three lose more talent than we do.   Especially in the case of OSU and ND, where their QB situation for 2014 is up in the air.