11 Warriors: Sympathy For The Devil
A sobering perspective on how far UM football has fallen in the rivalry (and national relevance). It's been so long since we've had any success in this game, at least in the win column. There have been some good games and some bad. There has been bad luck and injuries. But, the consistent factor is being on the losing side of the win/loss column.
Even though we're a little frustrated with the last season, the finish to the 2018 class, and some questional assistant hires or lack of fires, this article illuminated for me that coaching consistency is the best thing for us. We probably aren't getting any better coach than JH, and although we want it quicker than we're getting it, keeping him around for as long as he wants to be around seems like what's best for UM. We all knew last year was a rebuilding year and I get the feeling that a good 2018 on the field with a few key wins will give the program the energy it needs to regain it's recruiting momentum and take us into the future with a better shot in this rivalry than we've had in quite some time, even if it doesn't return to what it was in the 90s.
February 20th, 2018 at 2:49 PM ^
5* : OSU 3 / M 0
4*: OSU 18 / M 7
3*: OSU 5 / M 11
I'm no math major but I'm pretty damn sure that the gap between us is more than a smidgen which is why ALL the rating services have us in the low to mid 20's and OSU either #1 or 2.
How do you possibly look at that talent disparity and go "yup - we're right there with em all right. Nipping right on their tail we are."
February 20th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
Because I am using a value assigned to each of them individually. You are only using 3 different values and assuming all players at each value are equal. They are not.
See my post above.
February 20th, 2018 at 2:55 PM ^
and does not rely on just it's own rankings, like Rivals does.
February 21st, 2018 at 8:26 AM ^
247 actually provides you with a specific average recruit value. OSU was in the 94s an Michigan was in the 89s.
The Composite team score increases less with each additional recruit. The Composite team score also emphasizes top-top players more. Georgia and OSU each signed 26 and OSU had the higher average recruiting ranking (by 0.06). But, Georgia signed more top 30 type kids and finished 6 points higher in the 247 alogrithm.
Ohio State signed 13 kids ranked higher than anyone M signed. I don't know how close the classes are in actual talent -- but if you're using 247 composite rankings as your measure, they weren't at all close.
To Illustrate the fallacy of this approach, last year's M class was 296/30 = 9.8. The year before was 280/28=10. If you think this year's TCU class was better than last year's M class you're crazy.
February 21st, 2018 at 12:16 PM ^
I am not suggesting its 100% accurate, but anyone is lying to themselves if they can't see a problem with just taking star averages. Again see my post above comparing a 4 star average with top 100 kids vs kids ranked in the 2000s.
Also, I dont think you can really cross compare years to validate your side of the discussion unless you can see a breakdown of each players value in the score. I don't know that they were scored the same from year to year.
February 20th, 2018 at 1:52 PM ^
No, you're being hyperbolic. It's not a good class by the numbers (but it's not "fucking TERRIBLE"), and of course we have no idea how good it will actually be. The class does do a pretty good job at addressing positional needs. Most importantly, even if it turned out to be a meh class, one off class is not a big deal especially if you at least just hit on a few guys. Clearly, we don't want to have the 20th ranked class year in and year out, but the data we have doesn't suggest that to be likely now does it?
February 20th, 2018 at 11:05 PM ^
Right.....1. It seems we got in this mess because of the attrition on the o line from previous classes, and that it should be a lesson learned. I don't really care about stars and rankings. My concern is the ratio of dB's to o linemen is 5 to 1. They might be great players and some of last year's o linemen may turn out good (I hope). But I'd rather not play with fire. Aside from all the "antics" from Mcelwaine, there's nothing in his record that he's the one to go get 2 or 3 great o linemen for next year. It looks like there's about 10 elite o line targets in MI OH GA and FL in 2019. I'm just hoping there's someone on the staff that has a shot at landing a few.
February 20th, 2018 at 3:01 PM ^
The most shocking part of Harbaugh's under achievement is how eager some fans are to accept mediocrity. To put a No. 21 recruiting class in perspective, it means you are recruiting like a fifth place Power Five school.
But even more than that is how this class came to be. If we put together the class by snatching most of our top targets based on the staff's own players rankings, you could make the argument we still had the class we wanted. However, we lost pretty much any real recruiting battle we were in, we had our highest ranked guys decommit, and were forced to issue waves of early signing day offers just to put a class together. The offensive line is our biggest area of concern and we signed a whopping one player that played offensive line in high school.
Add to that the fact that we are way behind or, in some cases, completely out of it for the top ranked in-state offensive linemen (Dobbs, Brown in 2019, Rogers in 2020) and you have to start questioning if this is what a program on the right track looks like heading into Year 4.
February 20th, 2018 at 6:26 PM ^
February 21st, 2018 at 5:07 AM ^
What the hell has Wisconsin been doing for the last decade plus? Michigan State?
I'd like everyone obsessing over rankings to go check out Wisconsin's ranking in the Big Ten in recruiting on average the last decade. It's probably not upper half in the conference. Michigan State is almost always outside the top 20 nationally.
We have two top 5 recruiting classes in a row and go 8-5.
How about we get a program first and see what we become when were not relying stripped down upper classes left from another coach who failed his last couple years?
February 21st, 2018 at 11:22 AM ^
Serious question, because I see a number of Michigan fans make this argument from time to time. Do Michigan fans really want to be like Wisconsin and MSU? Yes, they have done more with less over the years, but what have either of them really won? They are not considered elite by your average fan or pundit and generally lose when they play the elites nationally. It's really strange for me, an OSU fan, to feel a measure of revulsion when Michigan fans try to counter arguments against their recruiting classes by pointing to MSU and Wisconsin. Moments later it turns into schadenfreude, but still.
February 20th, 2018 at 1:07 PM ^
It does have a degree of truth to it, but it also seems a bit myopic when considering Harbaugh.
Season 1: Harbaugh immediately turns the program around and develops Rudock into a draftable QB.
Season 2: Harbaugh brings in Don Brown and has the best defense in the country with a mixture of Hoke and Harbaugh recruits. Borges prospect, Speight, looks serviceable but flails together with Harbaugh at Iowa, and they lose a heart breaker at OSU.
Season 3: With a mass exodus and now feeling the head coach transition costs in recruiting, a rebuild season is expected. This is compounded with Speight performing poorly before injury and O'Korn failing to develop beyond his shoddy soph year at Houston. Harbaugh pulls together an excellent OSU gameplan but cannot overcome O'Korn's limitations.
Offseason: Harbaugh addresses the single biggest concern bringing in former 5* Shea Patterson. Harbaugh does fail to bring in a highly recruited class. Staff changes are fairly minor.
Season 4 Outlook: Mich returns nearly everyone with the likely addition of Patterson. They are some offensive tweaks and a tackle away from returning to or exceeding Season 2 form.
If I were a Buckeye I wouldn't be in pity mode just because of a rebuild season and one recruiting class outside the top 10.
February 20th, 2018 at 2:37 PM ^
February 20th, 2018 at 2:38 PM ^
It's true coming close doesn't count for anything, but people forget how differently 2016, and by extension Harbaugh's time here, would look had a 50/50 spot gone the other way.
With Hoke and RichRod, we've lost our patience as a fanbase, but if you look at the 2018 season, it's not hard to see a team as good or better as the one in 2016, a team that was playoff caliber.
All that said, time to deliver.
February 20th, 2018 at 2:42 PM ^
Huh? Wat?!
Football isn't basketball?
I don't follow?