0-1 Starts: A Historical Perspective
Over 136 season openers, the Wolverines have lost only 22 games — just 16.2 percent.
http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/index.ssf/2015/09/numbers_1.html#incart_river
We've lost our season opener 16 times since 1946. In five of the ensuing seasons we won at least a share of the Big 10 title, and finished 2nd three times.
Discuss.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:18 AM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^
I'd much prefer to talk about interesting topics on MGoBlog than be super focused on the next game while under some illusion that I matter to the team.
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September 8th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
Yes, we lost our opening game for just the 22nd time in 136 seasons. That doesn't tell me how this team is going to be the rest of this year or give me some inside scoop on predicting the final record. Nobody knows that. This stat is meaningless and will not help us know how the rest of the season will go. The Utah loss left a bitter taste in my mouth and I just want to see a victory over Oregon State and then move on to the next game.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:33 AM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^
There really is nothing to discuss about this stat, but if you think you now have more insight and feel like you have a better perception on how the season will play out because of said stat, then have at it.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:42 AM ^
This stat will hopefully calm down the "sky is falling" crowd
September 8th, 2015 at 11:55 AM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 11:53 AM ^
nothing to discuss about this stat if your only goal on this blog is "maintain focus" and "just worry about Oregon State." Dude, it doesn't matter what we talk about right now or "focus" on, this post is intrinsically no less valuable than a post breaking down Oregon State. This is an interesting topic as we almost always win our opener even when we stink so it is somewhat novel. If you don't want to discuss it why are you insisting on discussing it?
September 8th, 2015 at 12:05 PM ^
I think the clarification he has made is sufficient to realize that he is not claiming that fans shouldn't look past opponents. It seems he is pointing out that this type of stat is really an abuse of any sort of inductive reasoning, because the rates of success after losing the opener in years past likely have nothing to do with the rate of success of this year's team.
I don't think he made this point well, and I also hate the "even fans gotta take it one game at a time" meme. However, it should now be clear what this poster likely intended to point out.
September 8th, 2015 at 12:08 PM ^
Thank you. Yes, this was the point I was trying to make. Apparently, it came across as something I did not intend.
September 8th, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^
I think people understood. I just don't think most people want to discuss "inductive reasoning" on a football blog and are more of the mind to just say, "yeah, weird, we lost our season opener, let's discuss how that could play out."
September 8th, 2015 at 12:19 PM ^
Fair enough, man. Didn't expect people to be irate over this.
September 8th, 2015 at 2:49 PM ^
given that this is a new coaching staff, and many analysts have predicted 7-5 ish seasons.
Yeah they could go 11-1, but a lot of change means hesitant play and growing pains.
September 8th, 2015 at 10:51 PM ^
...Best Comeback from a Negbang.
September 8th, 2015 at 2:25 PM ^
Since we are nearly equally tenured on the blog, I am surprised you think MGoBloggers would not be up for discussing inductive reasoning :)
September 8th, 2015 at 3:45 PM ^
maybe some would, but The_Mad_Hatter is not one of them.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^
I was thinking a Muttley restroom trip during the 4th quarter cost us the game.
September 8th, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
I missed a critical part of my pregame ritual.
September 8th, 2015 at 12:02 PM ^
I wondered who I was going to blame.
September 8th, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
Damn it, Muttley!
I'll tell you what I tell my girlfriend on long car trips: Hold it in or learn to go in a bottle!
September 8th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^
We, as fans, can worry/talk about any future game we want due to having nothing to do with their outcomes.
We are going to beat MSU in October. *gasp* OMG I should worry more about OSUw. My bad.
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September 8th, 2015 at 12:33 PM ^
about 22% of the time. I get caught up in how to win, like I have anything to do with it.Then I realize that nothing I say or do will impact the game in any way whatsoever.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:46 AM ^
I agree with you, but then again, I'm not exactly what you would call "stable".
I'm so scarred and damaged from past losses to teams that I overlooked that I don't allow myself to do it anymore. Every time I let my guard down, bad things happen.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:57 AM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
That would make the winning percentage more impressive. Nebraska lost their first opener since I believe 1985 on Saturday. But they were playing Idaho, LA Tech and South Dakota St. We've started with ND, Boston College and Virginia just to name a few.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:24 AM ^
Five of those losses came at the hands of Notre Dame (to hell with them).
September 8th, 2015 at 11:22 AM ^
"WMU>Utah"
-an mlive commenter
September 8th, 2015 at 11:34 AM ^
sparty still hasn't stopped drinking nor gone to bed!
September 8th, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 11:26 AM ^
I don't see how this statistic would provide any information whatsoever about our prospects this season.
The only thing this tells me is that either sometimes we schedule tough opponents in the opener OR sometimes our team isn't perfect.
Oh, and that there's more than one game in a football season.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:31 AM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 12:12 PM ^
September 8th, 2015 at 11:37 AM ^
Tried to say the same thing but people think they now have a revelation into the rest of the season.
September 8th, 2015 at 12:08 PM ^
Or, people find it interesting to look at how this year stacks up historically.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:43 AM ^
In five of the ensuing seasons we won at least a share of the Big 10 title, and finished 2nd three times.
Three of those first place Big Ten finishes were against ND from 88-90 in frustrating losses in games between Top 10ish (or better) teams. A fourth was against ND in 98 as we opened as an overranked 5th ranked team on the road, but improved steadily over the year to win a number of close games in not-so-impressive fashion.
While I expect this team to continue battling like the aformentioned teams, thinking along the lines of "Don't worry, this team is poised to take on the Big Ten just like in 1988 (or 89, 90, or 98)" is quite a stretch and grossly understates the challenge ahead.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:50 AM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 12:29 PM ^
This exactly.
September 8th, 2015 at 1:28 PM ^
September 9th, 2015 at 1:33 AM ^
We've lost our season opener 16 times since 1946. In five of the ensuing seasons we won at least a share of the Big 10 title, and finished 2nd three times.
Discuss.
IMO, there is an implication that the factual observation--that we've often done well historically after dropping our opener--is relevant to this season. (Why else post it?)
My point is to dig into the details of the years that we won at least a share of the Big Ten, and then to question whether those specific years ('88, '89, '90, and '98) have any relevance to this year (as opposed to some vague reference to "five* of the ensuing seasons").
IMO, when the details are brought to light, the relevance of the observation is weakened substantially
*The fifth was 1950, for which I know less than those with access to the SuperGuide™.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:36 AM ^
Nice stat.
I don't think it means anything for this year, but for other reasons I think we have a reasonable shot at doing well in the B1G season. Not great, but well enough given the circumstances.
Before the season, when everything was a mystery, I was thinking that I wouldn't be shocked if we went 6-6 and I wouldn't be shocked if we went 10-2. After the Utah game, I'll be pretty shocked if we're either of those. I think we saw a team that is squarely in the 8-4, maybe 7-5 range.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:59 AM ^
My hope ...
Seriously ... just improve in all facets of the game ... every game get better.
Good things will follow.
EDIT -- over on MGoVideo there's an excellent "chalk talk" breakdown of some of the plays of the game:
http://mgovideo.com/chalk-talk-2015-michigan-vs-utah/
Some of the problems needing correction are highlighted there. Excellent video and commentary.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^
are right now, a hard fought loss against Utah on the road is much more valuable than a "kick ass win" against UConn or Western. The game was both a good learning experience for a team that needs it and provided good perspective for a fan base that (desperately) needs it. I am glad we are not talking September Heisman for Rudock and breaking down a dominant win over a cupcake right now. That has gotten old in recent years.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:48 AM ^
Oregon State is all we need to think about. Get that W, then let's concentrate on UNLV. Get that W, and then we can concentrate on BYU... and so on, and so on, and so on. I really hope to see improvement every week unlike the past few seasons.
September 8th, 2015 at 11:51 AM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^
So we are going to win a national championship this year!?!?
September 8th, 2015 at 12:20 PM ^
Michigan (4) v. Alabama(1)
TCU(2) v. USC(3).
Michigan beats Bama 82-7 and then holds off SC 78-17.
Yes, National Champions.
September 8th, 2015 at 12:25 PM ^
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September 8th, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^
There is no way our D gives up 17 points!
September 8th, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^