TO's obviously cost us this game, but...
One of the most important stats is the battle of 3rd down conversions. The team that converts 3rd downs better usually wins the game. Tonight: Iowa 8-18 for 44.4% vs. Michigan 3-11 for 27.3%
Even with all those TOs, if we hold up better on 3rd down defensively (esp. when it's 3rd and 24 and we give up a deep post in a defense playing a center fielder, which IMO was our worst play of the game in any phase), we probably win.
Of course, the converse is probably true: even with being that poor on 3rd downs, if we don't turn it over 5 times, we probably win.
Most importantly, if we don't turn it over and we win 3rd down, we win easily. We clearly owned the line of scrimmage tonight. I think every game left on the schedule is a possible win.
October 11th, 2009 at 12:39 AM ^
Good to hear from someone who we know knows what he's talking about. (That was an awkward sentence.) Still sloppy, but like you said, we're going to be able to win every game this year if we can execute.
October 11th, 2009 at 12:54 AM ^
turns overs didnt help the cause but we were still in the game at everypoint know matter how you look at it and to keep denard robinson in with two mins left in the game being down two points says alot about our coaching staff. tate really has show whether he has had a good game or not that he is clutch i am very impressed with this kid and he is a true freshman and he is very impressive this kid is gonna be a very good or maybe even great qb and he should have had the chance to get us in scoring position in the last two mins of the game
October 11th, 2009 at 12:45 AM ^
My take: TO's were not the only thing that cost us this game.
October 11th, 2009 at 1:04 PM ^
I think our inability to capitalize on a few of Stanzi's errant throws that hit Warren and Woolfolk also hurt. Warren probably should have had 2 pick 6's that game. They capitalized we didn't.
October 11th, 2009 at 12:41 AM ^
The 40 whatever yard pass on 3rd and forever didn't help. I blame Forcier! Tate should be in street clothes for Delaware State.
October 11th, 2009 at 12:42 AM ^
i agree. i just said it in another thread: Tate doesn't have a go-to guy on a 3rd down, and that's why we're seeing poor numbers on his statsheet. we don't have a reliable target.
where has Greg Mathews been in the passing game? I thought he could be that posession receiver that finds a hole in the d and wants the ball on 3rd down and 8. But he's been totally M.I.A.
October 11th, 2009 at 12:43 AM ^
Turnovers obviously cost us the game. Bro, enough said there. That is why we lost. A muffed punt, fumbles and two intercpetions. Can't win when you turn it over 4 times. I'm sorry. I was very happy with the reviews on the incomplete passes. Good offciating tonight
October 11th, 2009 at 12:50 AM ^
The only TO that i feel was inexcusable was the muffed punt. Mathews is a senior, he can't make those kind of mistakes in a big game like this. Granted he's come up big for us in the past, and our return game is much better than last years in terms of HOLDING ON TO THE DAMN BALL, but still.
October 11th, 2009 at 12:52 AM ^
I thought Minor's fumble was kind of a weak one, too. They didn't seem to be clubbing it out of his hands, rather he was just being squeezed and didn't secure it going into the pile. It happens, but I thought it kind of a weak turnover.
October 11th, 2009 at 12:55 AM ^
true, i actually kind of forgot about that one.
at least he responded in a big way though later in the game
October 11th, 2009 at 1:10 AM ^
I thought that really changed the complexion of the game going into half time
October 11th, 2009 at 1:12 AM ^
Scored on that drive too
October 11th, 2009 at 1:20 AM ^
made a two point coversion.
October 11th, 2009 at 1:26 AM ^
At one point in like the 3rd Q, they showed that Iowa's starting field position was their own 45, while our was our own 25. That's probably a function of our turn overs, but think about that for a minute.
October 11th, 2009 at 1:23 PM ^
I'm looking forward to The Mathlete's By The Numbers analysis.
Iowa starting field position and results (average Iowa 40)
Iowa 34: Int Pick 6
Iowa 43: TD
Mich 19: FG
Iowa 35: Punt
Mich 46: FG
Iowa 22: TD
Iowa 35: Punt
Iowa 31: Missed FG
Iowa 14: FG
Iowa 15: Punt
Iowa 28: Punt
Mich 16: Turnover on downs
Mich 42: TD
Iowa 24: Punt
Mich 45: Punt
Iowa 31: End of game kneel downs
Michigan starting field position and results (average Mich 27)
Mich 26: Int
Mich 28: TD
Mich 30: Fumble
Mich 27: Punt
Mich 22: Punt
Mich 19: Fumble
Mich 33: Punt
Mich 39: Punt
Mich 43: TD
Mich 1: Punt
Mich 26: Punt
Mich 41: TD
Mich 17: Game-ending Int
October 11th, 2009 at 10:58 AM ^
Iowa got 6 of their 8 conversions on the two first half TD drives:
3rd and 6 for 10 yards
3rd and 3 for 4 yards
3rd and 12 for a 34 yard TD
3rd and 6 for 33 yards
3rd and 24 for 47 yards
3rd and 1 for a 1 yard TD
October 11th, 2009 at 11:26 AM ^
We did own the line of scrimmage, which really surprised me. Of course, it raises the question of why we were so much worse (at least on the OL) against MSU. Their DL tossed us around. Was it really just a matter of them timing the snap counts?