Wins and losses in the Hoke era (updated)

Submitted by dnak438 on September 7th, 2014 at 3:50 PM

Some time ago I wrote a diary summarizing the wins and losses in the Hoke era. After reading that Michigan is 3-7 in the last 10 games, and 10-11 since Denard went out in the Nebraska game, I thought that it would be worth revisiting the data. Here they are:

Year Date Opponent Location Result UM Them Line Cover?
2011 3-Sep WMU Home W 34 10 -14 yes
2011 10-Sep ND Home W 35 31 3 yes
2011 17-Sep EMU Home W 31 3 -29.5 no
2011 24-Sep SDSU Home W 28 7 -9 yes
2011 1-Oct Minnesota Home W 58 0 -20 yes
2011 8-Oct Northwestern Away W 42 24 -7.5 yes
2011 15-Oct MSU Away L 14 28 2.5 no
2011 29-Oct Purdue Home W 36 14 -14 yes
2011 5-Nov Iowa Away L 16 24 -4 no
2011 12-Nov Illinois Away W 31 14 -1 yes
2011 19-Nov Nebraska Home W 45 17 -3.5 yes
2011 26-Nov Ohio State Home W 40 34 -7.5 no
2012 3-Jan Virginia Tech Neutral W 23 20 -3 no
2012 1-Sep Alabama Neutral L 14 41 13.5 no
2012 8-Sep Air Force Home W 34 25 -21.5 no
2012 15-Sep Umass Home W 63 13 -45.5 yes
2012 22-Sep ND Away L 6 13 5 no
2012 6-Oct Purdue Away W 44 13 -3 yes
2012 13-Oct Illinois Home W 45 0 -25 yes
2012 20-Oct MSU Home W 12 10 -9.5 no
2012 27-Oct Nebraska Away L 9 23 2 no
2012 3-Nov Minnesota Away W 35 13 -11.5 yes
2012 10-Nov Northwestern Home W 38 31 -9.5 no
2012 17-Nov Iowa Home W 42 17 -17 yes
2012 24-Nov Ohio State Away L 21 26 3.5 no
2013 1-Jan South Carolina Neutral L 28 33 5.5 yes
2013 31-Aug CMU Home W 59 9 -32 yes
2013 7-Sep ND Home W 41 30 -4 yes
2013 14-Sep Akron Home W 28 24 -38 no
2013 21-Sep Uconn Away W 24 21 -18 no
2013 5-Oct Minnesota Home W 42 13 -20 yes
2013 12-Oct Penn St Away L 40 43 -2.5 no
2013 19-Oct Indiana Home W 63 47 -9 yes
2013 2-Nov MSU Away L 6 29 6 no
2013 9-Nov Nebraska Home L 13 17 -6.5 no
2013 16-Nov Northwestern Away W 27 19 3 yes
2013 23-Nov Iowa Away L 21 24 6 yes
2013 30-Nov Ohio State Home L 41 42 17 yes
2013 28-Dec Kansas State Neutral L 14 31 5.5 no
2014 30-Aug App St. Home W 52 14 -34.5 yes
2014 6-Sep ND Away L 0 31 3.5 no

First, the losses:

  • Most of the losses are away (9) or at neutral sites (3), with only two at home (2).
  • In most losses, M has been the underdog (11), with the exceptions being 2011 @Iowa, 2013 @Penn State, and 2013 Nebraska.

Next, the wins:

  • 20 are at home, 6 away, 1 neutral win (2012 Virginia Tech)
  • None of the away wins are against good teams: Northwestern (x2), Illinois, Purdue, Minny, UConn
  • We have two wins in games in which we were not favored (2013 @Northwestern, 2011 ND)

The biggest letdowns:

  1. 2013 Akron: -34 difference between the line and the final score
  2. 2014 @ND: -27.5 difference
  3. 2013 @MSU: -17 difference
  4. 2013 @Uconn: -15 difference
  5. 2012 Alabama: -13.5 difference

The best performances (final score vs. the spread):

  1. 2011 Minnesota: +38
  2. 2012 @Purdue: +28
  3. 2011 Nebraska: +24.5
  4. 2012 Illinois: +20
  5. 2013 CMU: +18

Take-aways: things are getting worse and there is not much in the way of signature wins. The lows aren't as low as the Rodriguez or late Carr era, but the highs aren't very high. Here's one way to visualize the state of the program under Hoke: cumulative win percentage (click to embiggen):

 

Comments

991GT3

September 7th, 2014 at 5:05 PM ^

I wonder what the overall cumlative record is of all the teams he has beat. I suspect not much above 50% if that.

Hoke is a mistake and the sooner Michigan recognizes it the faster it can be corrected. The Auburn AD fired his coach after two season with one a NC season. When asked why he did so,  he stated that football is about winning and he did not like the trend of the team being uncompetitive against strong opponents.

Look where they are today after two seasons. A new coach who used the prior coach players and developed them into a top top team. I have no doubt that Michigan has the talent. It does not have the coaching staff to develop them into a top tier team.

Yeoman

September 7th, 2014 at 5:44 PM ^

  • 2014: 1-1
  • 2013: 41-45
  • 2012: 42-59
  • 2011: 76-74
  • 2010: 34-41
  • 2009: 15-33
  • 2008: 16-22
  • 2007: 56-57
  • 2006: 75-62
  • 2005: 45-36

Each coach has three years here and the totals are:

  • Carr 176-155 .532
  • Hoke 159-179 .470
  • Rodriguez 65-96 .404

I'm not sure what this proves--it's rare for any team to have its wins come over opponents with an overall record significantly better than .500.  I think we're probably all in agreement that the '97 team was pretty good and played a strong schedule, but the overall record of the teams M beat that year was 75-69. As a matter of logic this is what you'd always expect to see. The average record is .500, and if you have any losses you'd expect they would come against the better teams.

NotADuck

September 7th, 2014 at 8:21 PM ^

We all need to slow down, take a deep breath, and remember two things.

First of all, this was one game.  The ND game has not been a good barometer of the teams abilities in the past and I believe the same can be said this year.  Its far too early to judge this team and its coaching staff.  That should be reserved for at least after the state game.

Second, don't forget that Hoke is still dealing with the 2010 and 2011 recruiting classes.  The fallout from those classes is still being felt, what with the lack of OL upperclassmen for one example.

Hold your horses people.  This isn't over.

Frequency

September 7th, 2014 at 9:35 PM ^

Interesting to see that info. Outside of the 2011 season, the win against MSU in 2012 is really the only good win that we have had. The 2011 season was great, but since then the list of teams we have beat really isn't all that good.

EDIT - I guess the 2013 ND win might fit in there somewhere too.

EDIT 2 - I forgot 2012 was the year MSU went 6-6. I'm just going to stop analysing things now.

 

pistolwolf

September 7th, 2014 at 10:44 PM ^

so much is discussed on this subject because it is so frustrating. what is posted here is all you ever need to know, it is not a mystery. an elite program will win close to 50 percent of their games against ranked opponents. they will win more then their fair share on the road and will be close to unbeatable at home. that is not mich anymore and that is coaching. if it is just recruting explain boise state all those years.

Yeoman

September 7th, 2014 at 11:44 PM ^

...means comparing them to expectations.

If the lows aren't as low as the late-Carr years, it's because expectations are so low and it's much harder to underachieve. We've got a long way to go before it would even be possible to be as disappointed by anything as were by '06 OSU, or by the '04 or '05 Rose Bowls.