Where will UM hoops points come from?

Submitted by champswest on April 19th, 2010 at 11:02 PM

With the departure of Harris&Sims, UM also loses 52% of its offense. Who will pick up the scoring slack for the Wolverines? The short answer is no one and everyone. At this point, it seems unlikely that anyone on the roster is capable of supplying 16 to 18 points per game. The more likely scenario is for balanced scoring, and not just from the 5 starters, but from as much as 11 deep. It is not as impossible as it may sound. We may have lost our big 1-2 scoring punch, but we also lost 50% of the shot attempts. That means more shots for the other guys next year and less standing around waiting for Manny to shoot the ball.>

What have we gained in 2010-2011? For starters, more height. We can field the 4&5 spots with 2 guys each that are 6’8” or taller.< More length means better D and better D means more offense. It also means better rebounding leading to more offensive opportunities. We gain everyone playing their natural positions (point guards to run the offense, scoring guards to shoot the ball and 6’8”+ guys (instead of 6’4” Novak) to guard the other team’s 4. With 6 new guys we also gain depth. And last but not least we gain chemistry. We all saw what teams with few stars (Butler, Northern Iowa, Cornell, etc.) can accomplish when they play hard and play together. T-E-A-M!

If you look at the scoring potential by position, it is reasonable to expect next years team to produce the same scoring ability. The chart below compares last years output by position with next years potential group of players. (Note: I have made some assumptions as to what positions individuals might play and the number of minutes and potential scoring average. My emphasis is more on the position’s potential considering who we have playing there and not so much on what any individual player might achieve). We will probably lose scoring at the 3 and 5, but could gain at the other 3 spots. No single player even needs to make a big leap in average. The biggest increase in this scenario is Vogrich going from 1.5 ppg to 5 ppg. No player has a higher average than 8 points (Douglass and Smotrycz).

Now, 6 of these guys are new and I have never even seen them play so I am assuming a lot. But, the thing that I like most is our potential depth. We could start a team of Morris, Douglass, Novak, Smotrycz and Morgan and spell them with Hardaway, LLP, Vogrich/Sykes, McLimans and Horford. We have shooters&slashers. We have big guys to pound the boards or to take their man outside and make them defend the 3 point shot. We will be very young and inexperienced, but hopefully they will have great chemistry and hunger. If they work hard together this summer, they could end up playing around .500 next year (and that could be better than the 2009 team did). And then in 2011 we add Brundidge and maybe another big. It’s a start.









Plus/

2009-2010


2010-2011

Minus
Pos.
Min. PPG     Min. PPG PPG
1 Morris 24.3 4.4   Morris 30 7 2.6

Douglass 15.7 3.4   Douglass 0 0 -3.4

        Hardaway 10 5 5

Position total 40 7.8   Position total 40 12 4.2









2 Douglass 15.7 3.4   Douglass 25 8 4.6

Lucas-Perry 21.3 4.8   Lucas-Perry 15 6 1.2

Position total 37 8.2   Position total 40 14 5.8









3 Harris 36.1 18.1   Harris 0 0 -18.1

Vogrich 5.5 1.5   Vogrich 10 5 3.5

        Novak 20 7 7

        Sykes? 10 5 5

Position total 41.6 19.6   Position total 40 17 -2.6









4 Novak 33.2 7.4   Novak 0 0 -7.4

Wright 8.6 1.4   Wright 0 0 -1.4

        Smotrycz 20 8 8

        McLimans 20 4 4

Position total 41.8 8.8   Position total 40 12 3.2









5 Sims 32.1 16.8   Sims 0 0 -16.8

Gibson 10 3.9   Gibson 0 0 -3.9

        Morgan 20 5 5

        Horford 20 5 5

Position total 42.1 20.7   Position total 40 10 -10.7





 



Team Total   65.1       65  

Source: michigan.rivals, michigan.scout



* Douglass (2009-2010) Min&Points split evenly between Pos. 1&2.

Comments

AC1997

April 19th, 2010 at 11:37 PM ^

I like what you're trying to do here and those of us who are optimists when it comes to Michigan basketball like the output of your analysis. I do have a couple of issues though:

-- Hardaway is NOT a point guard. He's a pure shooting guard at 6'5" who is known for his outside shot but not his handle. Put his minutes with the 2s and move LLP or Stu with the 1s.
-- I'm interested in how Vogrich responds next year and whether he's able to see more playing time because his shot is what they needed on the court this year instead of the bricks they threw up. Though his athleticism and D kept him on the bench. However, having his PPG jump from 1.5 to 5.0 when his minutes only jump to 10 seems a bit TOO optimistic. Look at the minutes that Morris and LLP played and neither could crack 5.0

But I do like the idea here. I think that Hardaway/Vogrich need to step up and be the bombers that this team needs and two of the four big guys need to show they are ready to play 30 minutes per game.

UNCWolverine

April 20th, 2010 at 12:33 AM ^

Ok, I'll state the obvious. Vogrich and Stu better combine for more than 8.1 points/game this year or we're fugged. Stu should average double figures by himself plain and simple.

Blue boy johnson

April 20th, 2010 at 12:45 AM ^

Morgan, Horford and McLimans 20 minutes per game each. No way in hell is that happening. more likely these 3 will split 40 minutes max. Gibson only played 10 minutes a game last season.

Novak and Douglass now upperclassmen and 2 year starters getting big cuts in PT; ain't happening.

Sykes, Vogrich and Hardaway averaging 15 points in 30 minutes per game; highly unlikely, that is Manny Harris type production.

More length means better D and also better rebounding; not necessarily.

My best case scenario is getting 65-70 minutes out of Morgan, Horford, McLimans and Metrics, which will be a big improvment over the 50 minutes recieved from Sims, Wright and Gibson.

I would expect at least 90-95 minutes per game out of Novak, Douglass, and Morris

So I guess I'm looking at 35-45 minutes per game from LLP, Vogrich and Hardaway.

UMfan21

April 20th, 2010 at 12:49 AM ^

I mostly agree with what you are saying, but the biggest disagreement I have is your assumption that chemistry will improve. I don't think that's for certain. I see no one on this team who has stepped up to be a leader yet, and no one will know what kind of chemistry these guys have until the freshmen start gelling.

I'm hoping Morris steps up into a leadership role since Novak and Douglass didn't seem to want that role this past year. I think it's only natural for a PG to be the leader, and DMo probably has the confidence to do it. But someone needs to step up, and the rest need to work together.

This team was much better than they played this year. Simply working together would net them more wins regardless of who left and who is coming in.

The Impaler

April 20th, 2010 at 8:16 AM ^

Well since we are losing 52% of our offense and we scored 65 ppg then we will be scoring 33.8 ppg, right? That's what usually happens when any team has graduating seniors, right?

chitownblue2

April 20th, 2010 at 8:46 AM ^

I don't think we'll be going with an 11 player rotation next year. Maybe we will, but I doubt it.

To be successful, we'll probably need Smotrycz to come in and have an impact (over 10 ppg?), Morris to continue to grow (I thought he played pretty well at the end of the year, but we need to see a little more scoring from him), and have Stu and Zack take a step forward - something both struggled with to varying degrees last year. Having seen a little of Morgan in HS, I'm optimistic that he can contribute some offense as well - he has a wide body, and actually has a decent offensive game as far as ten feet from the hoop. He's not Sims, but he's not a skill-less banger.

So, I'm hoping for double digits from Smotrycz, Stu, and Zack, and for Morgan and Morris to chip in around 8 a game. If we get that, we can be ok.

msoccer10

April 20th, 2010 at 2:34 PM ^

Without any seniors, we are going to depend on Douglas, Morris and Novak improving and hoping two freshman (Morgan and Smotrycz) play very well. Only three freshman averaged more than 10 ppg in the big ten last year, two of which were rated higher than Smotrycz, but one, Drew Crawford, was much lower, so it could happen.

meechiganroses

April 20th, 2010 at 9:11 AM ^

I've agreed with what everyone has mentioned before (leadership, minutes, etc.) The OP mentioned that Butler, NI, and Cornell playing without stars but names like Hayward, Howard, Farohkmanesh, and Ryan Wittman don't escape my memory. And they did more through the regular season besides a dream tourney run. Every NCAA champion has at least one star player on their team. The basketball team doesn't have that right now, unless someone steps up. Morris? Vogrich?

Steve in PA

April 20th, 2010 at 9:54 AM ^

He never bought into JB's system, period. By the time he realized not transferring was a bad decision it was too late.

Da'Sean Butler said it best,

"Everybody has to buy in, and you have to get the right people," Butler said, referring to Beilein's offense, which requires discipline and precise shooting. "You've got to get the absolute right people for that system, because if you have even one person that doesn't understand or doesn't care to understand, a cancer on the team of some sort, then it can throw everything off, honestly."

Sims bought in and had a great senior year. Manny never did and will be playing in Europe next year instead of AA.

Morris will move from an adequate PG to a great PG next year and a few of the guys coming in along with those on the team will pickup the slack. Vogrich and Douglas will be deadly shooters off the pass. Douglas should never have been playing PG.

My only concern is rebounding and I hope that we don't see Novak at 4 next year instead of 3. But, who steps in to take over the 4 spot?

Blue boy johnson

April 20th, 2010 at 10:29 AM ^

Douglass will be a PG at times next season, and I think he will be fine. Well not really a PG but a ball handler out of the 2 guard spot, we only have Morris, Stu and LLP to handle the ball against pressure and I think Stu is better at this point than LLP. I am expecting a big season out of Stu.

mgovictors23

April 20th, 2010 at 4:47 PM ^

I think with the addition of size and the progress of Morris will definitely help us. I just think we will be too inexperienced to do damage in the Big Ten. I still think we have a good future though.

mghorm

April 20th, 2010 at 9:48 PM ^

At least one person on the team will score double figures. no way our leading scorer averages 8 points a game. no team that makes any tournament doesn't have a leading scorer.