I'm nursing a little Super Bowl hangover that's making it difficulat to do real work, so instead I decided to dive into Ken Pom to see if there was any real chance of us making the Dance this year.
My takeaway, we need to go 5-2 down the stretch including a win against either Illinois or Wiscy to get a signature win on the resume, and we need to win 2 in the Big Ten Tourney.
Here's how I get there:
Wins - We have a few solid wins, but overall, no real signature win to hang our hat on:
|Penn St. 58||58|
|North Carolina Central||293|
|South Carolina Upstate||317|
Losses - We don't have any bad losses, our worst loss is against Indiana who has an RPI of #63 (that UTEP loss isn't looking as bad now that they are at 18-5). If there is any such thing as a good loss, well, we have quite a few of them. There are no derailer losses and the only one on the horizon is potentially Iowa at #77:
To Go - Ken Pom has us wrapping up at 17-14, which gets us into the NIT in all likelihood. Going 5-2 and getting a couple wins in the Big Ten Tourney is not inconceivable at this piont (KP says 10% chance to get 19 regular season wins - so you're saying there is a chance):
|To Go||Local||RPI||Ken Pom Prediction||Needed for Dance|
|Michigan St.||Home||49||W 66-62||W|
|Big Ten Round 1||?||?||?||W|
|Big Ten Round 2||?||?||?||W|
|Big Ten Round 3||?||?||?||L|
Assuming we don't completely collapse, NIT is looking like a lock, and the Dance is looking like a longshot, but way more likely than I personally thought at any time this year. Go Blue, let's get 'em boys...