Right now the database appears to be overvaluing dominant wins against bad teams. This will change in the next two weeks as there is enough interplay to start doing better adjustments for team strength based on this season’s games.
There is obviously a lot of noise in here still but I want to keep the numbers clear of human intervention to see how they straighten out as the season goes on. As a reminder, the In Season rating is made up of one quarter of the rating from each game against a FBS opponent (or loss against a FCS opponent) and the remainder is pre season rating. A team with three FBS opponents is 75% in season, 25% pre season. A team like Indiana who has only played one FBS opponent to date, is 25% in season and 75% pre season. Michigan is 50/50 right now. Game success is adjusted for strength of opponent based on the pre-season PAN number.
|Rank||Team||Conf||Preseason PAN||In Season PAN|
|2||Oklahoma St||Big XII||5.0||17.9|
|5||Ohio St||Big Ten||11.8||16.0|
|14||Texas Tech||Big XII||7.0||11.3|
|15||W Virginia||Big East||8.2||10.9|
|17||Air Force||Mtn West||0.4||10.7|
|23||Texas A&M||Big XII||(0.6)||7.7|
- Michigan holds on at #25. There change is a reflection of the movement of other teams. The UMass game had no factor in the final calculation although it would have if we had lost.
- Oklahoma St’s high powered offense and multitude of weak opponents has them at a way too high #2 ranking.
- A lot of conference hodge podge right now. No ACC teams, only W Virginia from the Big East. Michigan and Ohio St only two from the Big 10 after Iowa’s poor showing in Arizona. A lot of Big 12, SEC and PAC 10 in the ratings right now along with 5 teams from the future/past Mountain West conference.
- Michigan Projection
- Since Michigan scraped by UMass for the win, their is no knock on Michigan for their performance. The only adjustments are for changes to their remaining opponents. The projection is largely unchanged but still hovers around 8.5 wins.
Bowling Green – rank 84, 97% chance of Michigan win
@ Indiana –67th, 67%
Michigan State –40th, 66%
Iowa –39th, 65%
@ Penn State –31st, 43%
Illinois –65th, 82%
@ Purdue –43rd, 52%
Wisconsin –26th, 59%
@ Ohio State –5th, 16%
Projected Big 10 finish
The distinctions between Penn St and Purdue are very slight as the six teams between are projected between 4.2 and 5.1 wins. Right now it looks like a solid #1 (Ohio St), four bad teams (Illinois, NW, Indiana and Minnesota) with everyone else lumped in the middle. Michigan would look much better if not for their patsy free Big 10 schedule. Michigan only plays 2 of the bottom four while everyone else in the middle group plays at least 3 and Penn St and Purdue get all four.