Week 12 Big Ten Bowl Projections

Submitted by oriental andrew on November 21st, 2011 at 11:15 PM

So that was a pretty good weekend, no?  If you'll recall from last week's installment, most of the pundits expected Michigan to end up somewhere around the Outback against some roughly equivalent SEC team, like Georgia or S Carolina.  What a difference a week makes.  There is now a concensus in terms of Michigan's projected destination.  

So, on with the show...

 
Post Week 12 Rittenberg ESPN-Schlabach ESPN-Edwards CBS Sports CNNSI BTN CFN
MNC Game   LSU LSU LSU LSU   LSU
    Alabama Alabama Alabama Alabama   Alabama
Rose Wisconsin msu Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin Wisconsin
    Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon Oregon
Sugar Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan Michigan
    Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston Houston
Fiesta   Oklahoma Oklahoma Ok State Ok St   Ok State
    Stanford Stanford Stanford Stanford   Stanford
Orange   Va Tech Va Tech Va Tech Va Tech   Clemson
    Rutgers WVU Louisville WVU   WVU
Capital One msu Wisconsin msu Nebraska Nebraska msu msu
    Georgia Arkansas Arkansas Georgia Georgia Arkansas
Outback Nebraska Nebraska Penn St msu msu Penn St Penn St
    S Car S Car S Car S Car S Car Georgia
Gator osu Penn St osu Iowa osu Iowa Nebraska
    Florida Florida Auburn Florida Florida Florida
Insight Penn St Iowa Nebraska osu Iowa Nebraska osu
    Oklahoma TAMU TAMU Baylor Okla Okla
Care Care Iowa NW Iowa  Purdue Penn St osu Iowa
    TAMU Missouri Baylor TAMU TAMU TAMU
TicketCity NW Purdue Purdue Illinois Purdue Purdue Purdue
    UTEP SMU Marshall IA St SMU IA St
Little Caesars Purdue Ohio (YTO) NW NW NW NW Illinois
    Ohio (NTO) Toledo Toledo Ohio (NTO) Ohio (NTO) NIU
New Mexico   Illinois          
    SDSU          
Fight Hunger       Penn St      
        Cal      
New Orleans     Illinois   Illinois Illinois  
      UL-L   Sun Belt UL-L  
Other Illinois            

 

First, the good news - every single projection has Michigan in the firckin' Sugar Bowl, baby!  Who cares that it could be against Houston?  I'd be fine with it.

In other near-unanimous news, all except Schlabach have Wisco-Oregon in the Rose.  Schlabach sees msu winning the B1G.  

The Big Ten is also expected to get 10 teams bowl eligible, hence the random R+L Carrier New Orleans Bowl, the Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl, and the Gildan New Mexico Bowl. 

Our little bros to the north are projected into the Rose (x1), Cap1 (x4), and Outback (x2).  Nice how-do-you-do as the Big 10 runner up.  Nebraska, on the other hand, is projected to the Cap 1 (x2), Outback (x2), Gator (x1), and the Insight (x2).  You can bet the Insight planners would LOVE to see Nebraska-Oklahoma (BTN's projection).  

Finally, those dudes in Ohio are projected as high as the Gator, but also as low as the Meineke Car Care Texas Bowl and the Little Caesar's Bowl.  Personally, I hope Schlabach's prediction of Ohio (YTO) vs. Ohio (NTO) in the Pizza Pizza Bowl happens.  

So yeah - big game coming up.  Go Blue!  Beat Ohio!

Comments

justingoblue

November 22nd, 2011 at 12:00 AM ^

The Sugar would have the second to last pick, choosing between two-AQ's if Houston goes undefeated (BE champ and non-AQ autobid). If Houston loses, they can choose between either the BE champ or anyone else in the top fourteen that hasn't been picked yet. They'll pick Stanford or Oklahoma State or someone else from an AQ conference over the BE champ.

oriental andrew

November 22nd, 2011 at 8:44 AM ^

and it's been said, but this assumes Arkansas beats LSU this (?) weekend to earn a spot in the SEC championship game after all the complicated tie-breakers and beats Georgia; but LSU and 'Bama still end up #1/#2 in the BCS rankings as the top 1-loss teams.  Most pundits are assuming LSU beats Arkansas and that Georgia loses in the SEC championship game, though.

Red is Blue

November 22nd, 2011 at 5:11 PM ^

Isn't the scenario Arkansas beats LSU and then LOSES to Georgia?  So that Georgia is SEC champ and LSU and Bama are 1 & 2 and the SEC gets 3 teams to the BCS.  If Arkansas beats both LSU and Georgia wouldn't Arkansas be either 1 or 2 and therefore only two BCS bids for the SEC?

mgoblueben

November 22nd, 2011 at 2:14 AM ^

Can someone start a thread about that story on Jim Delaney over on yahoo.  I personally find Delaney to be another Gee and Gene Smith hooligan but I'm interested what people think about the 9 conference games, the elimination of BCS bowls, and the isolation of the big ten to just a midwest brand rather than national one.  (as stated in the article)

rockydude

November 22nd, 2011 at 3:11 AM ^

Does anyone know if between the two bowls (from our point of view), is the Fiesta or the Sugar Bowl considered more prestigious or anything? Do we care which we get invited to?

My take at the moment is that I want to be in the one that we are more likely to win. Am I wrong in that assumption?

Wolvie3758

November 22nd, 2011 at 7:37 AM ^

The Sugar Bowl is more prestigious..Its been one of the Big 4 Bowl games since the beginning..PLUS its New Orleans and Michigan has only played in ONE sugar Bowl..I remember I was there..we lost 9-7 to Auburn in a game we dominated but couldnt score.

 

I hope we get the Sugar Bowl and I hope its against a undefeated Houston which I think we have a good shot at winning....BEAT OHIO FIRST!!!!

jbibiza

November 22nd, 2011 at 7:58 AM ^

Why Houston instead of Boise State?

I must be missing something because Boise is ahead of Houston in the BCS yet is slated for the Poinsetta Bowl due to lack of a conference hook-up to a good game.  I thought the higher ranked non-bcs school in the top 12 would get the bid - apparently not.

That said, I would much prefer to play Houston as Boise is a tougher out.

Drew Sharp

November 22nd, 2011 at 9:19 AM ^

they will likely win their conference. The BCS requires the following to get a non-AQ school:

1) The non-AQ school wins the conference, AND

2) that school is ranked in the top 12, or the top 16 if it is ranked higher than a BCS conference champ (which they will be because of the Big East)

 

Since Houston will win the conference, be ranked in the top 16 and higher than the Big East champion, they will automatically get picked regardless of how high Boise is ranked.  Given that, there is virtually no chance that Boise goes to a BCS game because they won't win their conference (req'd for auto bid) and would have to be an at-large pick over teams like Stanford and Michigan.

Even if Houston loses, Boise does not have to get picked for a BCS game because they didn't win their conference.  Likely the only way Boise gets picked is if it somehow wins the conference.  If it does, Houston could get left out even if they are undefeated and win the conference because the BCS only has to take one non-AQ school that meets the above criteria.  It's a little messy right now, but realitically, only one of either Houston or Boise is getting in.  Right now, it'll be Houston because they'll win the conference.  If they don't it's possible neither one will get in to the BCS.

 

Drew Sharp

November 22nd, 2011 at 12:13 PM ^

the picture is of the 2007 game (based on the box score shown), and officially was 53,212, but that's not at all possible.   Those two teams played again in 2008, but they moved it to Tampa because of poor attendance in Jacksonville.  The 2008 game was "officially" 27,360 or roughly half of the game pictured above.  So, I guess it did get worse.

UofM-StL

November 22nd, 2011 at 9:57 AM ^

Of all the real BCS teams (Big East champ excluded obviously), I think Houston is our best chance at a win. I would love to see us go up against them in the Sugar Bowl.

Obligatory knock-on-wood statement: let's take care of business next week first.

joeyb

November 22nd, 2011 at 12:07 PM ^

If Oklahoma State beats Oklahoma and the voters do the right thing and move Oklahoma State to #3 at the very least, Oklahoma State will be #2 because the computers still have them at #2 or #3 and that will probably change to #1 and #2. If that's the case, the Sugar bowl gets the first replacement and picks Bama. The Fiesta Bowl then gets the next replacement pick and the first at large pick.

The teams available would be Stanford, Boise State, Houston, Kansas State, and the Big East winner (maybe Baylor, ND, or Georgia Tech under the right circumstances). Which two teams do they pick? 

I don't think they pick Stanford and Michigan because they would be in the complete shadow of the Rose Bowl as runner ups then. I could see picking Kansas State to stay with the Big12 and then Michigan as the most attractive team after that. Stanford would be another attractive choice, having the better record, but I think they take the team that will draw more of an audience and that travels better.

MGoblu8

November 22nd, 2011 at 11:12 PM ^

I would love to see OHIO play ohio. First of all because i went to high school about 20 miles from Athens and my sister and about 15 cousins went to OHIO. My brother goes to all of their games. Always gets killer seats (if you know what i mean). Also because this is the year where I think it is possible that OHIO beats ohio!!!!