Upset Watch: Week 12

Submitted by Maize_in_Spartyland on November 15th, 2011 at 7:00 PM

The top three teams remain intact, with blowout wins in Lubbock (#2 Oklahoma State) and Baton Rouge (#1 LSU). The Crimson Tide also picked up a win in Starkville. Other than that, much is uncertain, as Oregon moved up, Stanford moved down, Oklahoma moved up, and Boise State moved down. If LSU wins out and Oklahoma State loses, a rematch could take place in the national title (with either Alabama or Oregon). We haven’t seen this in awhile: Four games involving FBS and FCS opponents this week.

 

As typical with the Watch, we’ll review the picks from last week, noting the bad picks, and point out a few games to give the underdog some credit in, even if it is only in Vegas. We’ll also look at a sure-fire favorite and attempt to preview the Michigan game.

Be sure to check out my website, Before Visiting the Sportsbook, throughout the week, for more content.

 

Recap:

Wins

Western Kentucky (5-5) +41.5 @ LSU (10-0). Result: LSU 42 Western Kentucky 9.

 

Miami Florida (5-5) +9.0 @ Florida State (7-3). Result: Florida State 23 Miami Florida 19.

 

Losses

Kentucky (4-6) +13.0 @ Vanderbilt (5-5). Result: Vanderbilt 38 Kentucky 8.

 

Washington (6-4) +12.5 @ USC (8-2). Result: USC 40 Washington 17.

 

@ Mississippi (2-8) +2.5 Louisiana Tech (6-4). Result: Louisiana Tech 27 Ole Miss 7.

 

@ SMU (6-4) -8.5 Navy (4-6). Result: Navy 24 SMU 17.

 

@ Illinois (6-4) +1.5 Michigan (8-2). Result: Michigan 31 Illinois 14 [Props to MichNukeEng for correctly predicting that Michigan would cover]

 

Poster Picks

Number 7 chipped in on two picks, with Virginia (-9.5, 31-21) and Missouri (+1, 17-5).

 

Trebor loves his favorites, see Michigan State (-2.5, 37-21) but an underdog cam through for him, in Oregon (+3.5, 53-30).

 

This Week

Northern Illinois is playing on national television for the third straight week on a Tuesday night; however, they are at home this week, playing host to Ball State (8:00 PM EST/ESPNU). Ohio teams dominate ESPN coverage on Wednesday, with Ohio visiting Bowling Green (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN3) and Western Michigan visiting Miami (OH) (8:00 PM/EST/ESPN2/ESPN3). Thursday brings us a pair of top 25 teams putting their rankings on the line, with (#20) Southern Miss visiting Legion Field, for a matchup with UAB (8:00 PM EST); North Carolina visits Lane Stadium, for a showdown with (#8) Virginia Tech (8:00 PM EST/ESPN/ESPN 3D(!)/ESPN3). (#2) Oklahoma State’s (nearly) point-a-minute offense takes the field Friday night at Iowa State (8:00 PM/EST/ESPN/ESPN3), knowing Bedlam looms; Toledo visits MAC West rival Central Michigan (8:00 PM/EST/ESPNU).

 

Only three games involving top 25 teams with week, again. (#18) Michigan hosts (#16) Nebraska in a Legends/Bo Division matchup (12:00 PM/EST/ESPN/ESPN3). (#5) Oklahoma puts their BCS bowl hopes on the line, visiting Waco (8:00 PM/EST/ABC); Baylor has never defeated Oklahoma (0-20). We’ll stay in the Big 12, at the same time, but different station, with (#13) Kansas State visiting (#23) Texas (8:00 PM/EST/FX); Kansas State has won three straight dating back to 2006.

 

Upset Watch

@ Rutgers (7-3) +3.0 Cincinnati (7-2). The Scarlet Knights are 105th in total offense (118th rushing, 61st passing); Cincinnati is 40th (31st rushing, 66th passing). Rutgers is 21st in total defense (58th rushing, 11th passing); the Bearcats are 50th (2nd rushing, 115th passing). Rutgers is 2-4 ATS since 2005 against Cincinnati (1-5 SU). Cincinnati Coach Butch Jones is 11-10 at Cincinnati (9-12 ATS, 7-7 ATS as a favorite); Rutgers Coach Greg Schiano is 66-66 at Rutgers (67-56-1 ATS, 40-29-1 ATS as an underdog). Cincinnati will likely be without QB Zach Collaros (1854 passing yards, 63.4% completion, 14 passing TDs, but 8 INTs), who was on crutches at the end of the loss to West Virginia, last week. Sophomore Munchie Legaux (205 passing yards, 53.6% completion, 1 INT) will likely be under center for the Bearcats. Rutgers run defense against Cincinnati’s run offense is a bad matchup for the Bearcats, as is Cincinnati’s pass defense against Rutgers’ pass offense. Collaros is the second best quarterback in the Big East, needless to say, he’s a huge loss. Take Rutgers to cover, and win.

 

Kansas State (8-2) +9.5 @ Texas (6-3)The Wildcats are 85th in total offense (22nd rushing, 109th passing); Texas is 44th (15th rushing, 92nd passing). Kansas State is 82nd in total defense (25th rushing, 117th passing); the Longhorns are 14th (10th rushing, 48th passing). Since 1997, Kansas State is 5-2 SU against Texas (5-1 ATS). Since 2001, Texas Coach Mack Brown is 112-26 at Texas (69-65-3 ATS, 55-47-2 ATS as a favorite); Kansas State Coach Bill Snyder is 58-39 at Kansas State (51-39 ATS, 21-10 ATS as an underdog). In conference play, Texas has averaged 182.17 yards through the air (153.75 yards in the last four games). Against top 10 passing offenses, Kansas State is 1-2. Texas is not a top 10 passing offense by any means. Kansas State is 6-1 ATS as an underdog this year. Take Kansas State to cover.

 

@ Washington State (4-6) +3.5 Utah (6-4). The Cougars are 38th in total offense (103rd rushing, 9th passing); Utah is 109th (79th rushing, 102nd passing). Washington State is 84th in total defense (63rd rushing, 94th passing); the Utes are 27th (9th rushing, 76th passing). Since 1999, Washington State is 1-1 SU against Utah (1-1 ATS). Washington State Coach Paul Wulff is 9-38 at Washington State (22-24 ATS, 19-22 ATS as an underdog); Utah Coach Kyle Whittingham is 63-24 at Utah (39-34-2 ATS, 26-25-2 ATS as a favorite). Against teams with top 50 offenses, Utah is 3-1 against pass offenses outside the top 50, but only 2-3 against top 50 passing offenses. Washington State is 0-5 against top 50 rushing offenses, but 3-1 against rushing offenses outside the top 50. Take Washington State with the points.

 

Florida International (6-4) +1.5 @ UL Monroe (3-7).The Golden Panthers are 72nd in total offense (69th rushing, 68th passing); UL Monroe is 61st (70th rushing, 53rd passing). Florida International is 30th in total defense (34th rushing, 56th passing); the Warhawks are 31st (11th rushing, 83rd passing). Florida International is 2-5 SU against UL Monroe since 2004 (2-5 ATS). Florida International Coach Mario Cristobal is 22-37 at Florida International (29-30 ATS, 18-16 ATS as an underdog); UL Monroe Coach Todd Berry is 8-14 at UL Monroe (10-11-1 ATS, 3-4-1 ATS as a favorite). Florida International has averaged 25.6 points on the year (26.8 in conference, but only 16 in the previous three games before a 41-7 win last week). UL Monroe has averaged giving up 27.7 points game (25.5 in conference). Florida International has more talent and should win, but WR T.Y. Hilton (858 receiving yards, 15.1/catch, and 5 receiving TDs) needs to be productive; Hilton has averaged 54.25 yards in the last four games with 1 TD (2-2). Take Florida International with the points, and to win.

 

@ East Carolina (4-6) +7.0 Central Florida (4-6).The Pirates are 58th in total offense (112th rushing, 17th passing); Central Florida is 49th (51st rushing, 47th passing). East Carolina is 58th in total defense (89th rushing, 19th passing); the Knights are 10th (16th rushing, 18th passing). Since 2005, East Carolina is 4-2 SU against Central Florida (2-4 ATS). East Carolina Coach Ruffin McNeill is 10-13 at East Carolina (12-11 ATS, 8-7 ATS as an underdog); Central Florida Coach George O’Leary is 49-50 at Central Florida (52-43-1 ATS, 24-20-1 ATS as a favorite). UCF is 8-10 ATS as a road favorite under O’Leary. UCF is 3-2 when QB Jeff Godfrey (1745 passing yards, 68.5% completion, 4 passing TDs, but 3 INTs) rushes for a TD (1-4 when he doesn’t). ECU is 1-4 when QB Dominique Davis (2737 passing yards, 68.2% completion, 18 passing TDs, but 15 INTs) throws two or more interceptions (3-2 when one or none). UCF has largely been a disappointment this year. Under McNeill, the Pirates are 4-4 ATS as a home underdog (3-5 SU). Take East Carolina to cover the points.

 

Sure-fire Favorite

Navy -4.5 (4-6) @ San Jose State (3-7).The Midshipmen are 47th in total offense (2nd rushing, 119th passing); San Jose State is 83rd (108th rushing, 35th passing). Navy is 85th in total defense (82nd rushing, 67th passing); the Spartans are 98th (103rd rushing, 65th passing). This is the first ever meeting between these teams. A win for Navy preserves their chances of making their 9th straight bowl game. Navy Coach Ken Niumatalolo is 31-19 at Navy (25-22-1 ATS, 9-12-1 ATS as a favorite); San Jose State Coach Mike McIntyre is 4-19 at San Jose State (11-12 ATS, 11-7 ATS as an underdog). San Jose State is 6-2 ATS as an underdog this year; Navy is 3-3 ATS as a favorite. Navy is 4-5 against non-service academies this year (2002 was the last year Navy had a losing record against non-service academies; since 2002, Navy is 16-3 against service academies). Against teams with top 60 run defenses, Navy is 1-4 this year (1-2 against teams outside the top 60 run defenses). Take Navy to cover.

 

Gameday Prediction

Bo Pelini is 37-14 straight up at Nebraska. Coach Pelini is 11-4 on the road (3-1 this year), 21-11 in conference play (4-2 this year), and 7-8 against the top 25 (2-1 this year). Coach Pelini is 26-24-1 ATS and 11-13 as an underdog ATS (2-2 underdog ATS on the road).

 

Brady Hoke is 55-52 straight up (13-12 at San Diego State, 34-38 at Ball State). Coach Hoke is 60-42-3 ATS and 32-17-2 against the spread as a favorite. 

 

Nebraska’s defense is ranked 38th (21st passing [190.70 yards/game], 66th rushing [161.30 yards/game]). Michigan’s offense is ranked 33rd (84th passing [200.40 yards/game], 11th rushing [235.89 yards/game]).

 

Nebraska’s offense is ranked 50th (101st passing [171.40 yards/game], 13th rushing [232.70 yards/game]). Michigan’s defense is ranked 17th (22nd passing [191.33 yards/game], 41st rushing [130.89 yards/game]).

 

Since 1997, Michigan is 0-1 straight up against Nebraska (0-1 ATS), with the lone meeting being in the 2005 Alamo Bowl. Michigan had averaged 400 offensive yards with 270 of those being passing and 130 rushing.

 

Nebraska is second in the Big Ten in average points per game, with 32.9 (Wisconsin leads with 46.5); Michigan averages 32.5, good for third. Against teams in the top half of the Big Ten in average points per game, Michigan is 1-2 (3-0 against the bottom half); Nebraska is 1-2 against the top half (3-0 against the bottom half).

 

Nebraska is 36th in the country in scoring defense, allowing an average of 22.20 points per game, good enough for 7th in the Big Ten; Michigan is 7th in the country, allowing an average of 16.11 points per game, good enough for 3rd in the Big Ten. Nebraska’s defense has forced 15 turnovers to date (8 interceptions and 7 fumbles); Michigan’s defense has forced 20 turnovers to date (6 interceptions and 14 fumbles).

 

Michigan will need to contain Nebraska’s two biggest rushers on the ground: QB Taylor Martinez (768 rushing yards, 5.0/carry, and 9 rushing TDs) and RB Rex Burkhead (1072 rushing yards, 5.1/carry, and 14 rushing TDs). The duo combined for 221 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs against Ohio, 153 rushing yards and 2 rushing TDs against Michigan State, and 177 rushing yards and 1 rushing TD against Penn State. Burkhead has had six 100+ rushing yard games this season (four of six games in Big Ten with seven rushing TDs in Big Ten, at least one per game; averaging 108.67 rushing yards per game in Big Ten).

 

@ Michigan -3 Nebraska.

 

Michigan 24 Nebraska 14.

 

Who ya got?

Comments

One Inch Woody…

November 15th, 2011 at 7:16 PM ^

My reverse psychology ended up working for us last week, but this week I swear to you this is my real pick in my mind.

Michigan will keep adding spread 'n shred principles to make this offense a lot stronger and given 3 big-play threats on the field simultaneously with Hemingway in the slot (he's lined up there more often now), Denard, and Touissant, the Big 10's 7th-ranked defense will have a tougher time than Illinois' 2nd ranked defense containing this offense.

However, Nebraska's offense is a running juggernaut and I fail to see how we can slow down Burkhead/Martinez effectively.

In the end, I think this will be a very high scoring game, with Nebraska coming out on top.

Nebraska, 42 - 35.

Trebor

November 16th, 2011 at 8:04 AM ^

My 5 picks this week (gonna sprinkle some underdogs in here...)

Minnesota (+15.5) - Minnesota has been playing much better since halftime of the Purdue game. They'll keep it within 2 scores against a really bad Northwestern defense.

Clemson (-7.5) - Clemson has their eyes set on an ACC title, and they won't let NC State hang around too long in this one like they did last week against Wake Forest.

Tennessee (+1.5) - I still get the feeling that Vanderbilt is playing way above their heads. They've won one game in Knoxville since 1975, and even when they are the "better" team like 2008, they find a way to lose.

LSU (-30) - LSU's winning margins in the SEC this year - 13, 28, 30, 31, 35, 3. Ole Miss' losing margins - 23, 14, 45, 5, 18, 17. Les Miles isn't one to overlook an opponent, so he puts away Ole Miss early and often.

Penn State (+7) - This could be a race to 7 points. Two terrible offenses, two very good defenses. There will probably be more safeties than touchdowns.

Logan88

November 16th, 2011 at 8:33 AM ^

I definitely agree with you on the Minnesota (they look like a real college team now, yay! and NW doesn't usually blow teams out), Tennessee (they just don't lose to Vandy) and PSU (cripple fight!) games.

Re: the Nebraska-UM game, I like UM in a close one: 24-21.

victors2000

November 16th, 2011 at 8:08 AM ^

Michigan 24, Nebraska 17.

I think it will be a hard hitting game, with big plays on both sides of the ball but I think Michigan gets to the Red Zone more than Nebraska. I think Denard will have a decent game, but I'm worried about int's; actually if we do lose this game, I think this will be the reason why. If we play a relatively mistake free game, I like our chances.

jjlenny3

November 16th, 2011 at 8:51 AM ^

this week

Kansas +30.5 vs A&M

GA Tech -10.5 vs Duke

Tulsa -13.5 vs UTEP

Miami -1 vs S. FLa  don't trust any big east teams

ECU  +7 vs UCF

Virg  +17 vs FSU  

Colorado +10 vs UCLA 

Okla  -15 vs Baylor

K State  +9.5  vs Texas

unWavering

November 16th, 2011 at 9:54 AM ^

"Nebraska ranks eighth in the Big Ten in rush defense, allowing 161.3 yards per game, while Michigan averages 231.3 yards on the ground -- 13th in the nation."

This make me smile.  I think we have a great shot at winning this game if we limit turnovers and contain their rushing attack even somewhat.  We have comparable offensive prowess, but our D is more solid than theirs has been.  I'll take UM 35, Neb 27

uminks

November 16th, 2011 at 11:11 AM ^

Michigan's defense plays well at home. The key to winning this game is how well the offense plays. If DROB limits turnovers, has a decent passing game and can run we should score over 30 points, enough to win this game. If the offense has a rough time and the defense is on the filed much of the game against a bigger pounding the run offense we may lose this one. I'll be optimistic and say both the defense and offense will have good games at home!

 

Michigan 31  NE 20

Dr.Jay

November 16th, 2011 at 11:55 AM ^

I think the D shuts down the run, Martinez throws like Uncle Rico so he's not gonna win it with his arm.  Denard throws an int but I got Michigan 28-7

BayWolves

November 16th, 2011 at 12:03 PM ^

Mattison breaks out ever more schemes throuroughly confusing Martinez into 4 picks (2 for Floyd, one for Countess, 1 for T. Gordon). Burkhead runs for 150 in a losing effort because they can't punch it in when it counts.

Michigan 38

Nebraska 20

Number 7

November 16th, 2011 at 2:18 PM ^

Favorite to cover:  Just about everybody, this week.  I'll pick a high profile game, though, and take Oregon to cover the 15 points they're giving against USC in Eugene.

Dog ATS:  Here I like Baylor, who I think will ay Oklahoma closer than 2 TDs (they're getting 15 points, and they're at home).

Dog to win:   Yeah, I'll go against my formerly beloved Utes (as payback for sinking me in the Pick 6).  Washington State, you go ahead and win this one, 3.5 point-underdog-status-be-damned.