Ups And Downs: Season-To-Season And Historic Production Changes

Submitted by LSAClassOf2000 on January 2nd, 2013 at 10:31 AM

“A HIGH-LEVEL LOOK AT OVERALL PRODUCTION”

After an afternoon of disappointment followed by reflection, I decided to take a look at the last ten years of Michigan football and conduct a little “then and now” look at it. I had most of this data already, so it was reasonably convenient for me.

I added the South Carolina data into the figuring of seasonal averages for rushing offense and defense, passing offense and defense and scoring offense and defense. I then split the ten seasons into “the previous eight” versus “the last two” and provided separate averages for these. Granted, an average of two numbers isn’t exceedingly meaningful, but it aids in approximating a few other items. More specifically, increases or decreases in productivity between the two periods. Recognizing the dangers of the “average of averages”, given that there are so many data points involved, I will accept the summary statistics as a decent approximation and a good basis for discussion.

So you can see the trends between the first two seasons with this coaching staff, I figured out the percent change along the six metric between the two years, but then I also did this for the “Hoke Era”, if you will, versus the previous eight years so it is possible to see, at a high level, some of the effects of the change.

DATA AND RESULTS:

 

SEASON

Mich Rushing Off. - Avg. Yds

Mich Passing Off. - Avg. Yds

Mich Rushing Def. - Avg. Yds

Mich Passing Def. - Avg. Yds

Mich Scoring Off. - Avg. Pts.

Mich Scoring Def. - Avg. Pts.

2003-04

172.9

270.8

116.6

180.5

35.4

16.9

2004-05

153.6

232.9

133.3

202.9

30.8

23.3

2005-06

164.6

222.7

137.3

202.8

28.8

20.3

2006-07

175.5

195.2

43.4

224.9

29.2

15.9

2007-08

164.9

220.2

156.9

178.9

27.2

21.4

2008-09

147.6

143.2

136.9

230.0

20.3

28.9

2009-10

186.2

198.3

171.9

221.4

29.5

27.5

2010-11

238.5

250.2

188.9

261.9

32.8

35.2

2011-12

221.9

182.9

131.7

190.5

33.3

17.4

2012-13

182.2

199.1

151.7

169.7

29.8

19.8

10 Year Average:

180.8

211.6

136.9

206.4

29.7

22.7

Avg. (Previous 8 Seasons):

175.5

216.7

135.7

212.9

29.3

23.7

Avg. (Last 2 Seasons):

202.1

191.0

141.7

180.1

31.6

18.6

% Change (Prev. 8 Seasons to Last 2 Seasons):

13.2%

-11.9%

4.3%

-15.4%

7.3%

-21.4%

% Change (2011-12 to 2012-13):

-17.9%

8.1%

13.2%

-10.9%

-10.5%

12.1%

 

DISCUSSION:

There shouldn’t be too much in here that you didn’t already surmise.

For one thing, in some of the numbers anyway, you will clearly note what has been called “The Denard Effect” around these parts when it comes to offensive production, particularly rushing and scoring offense.  Between this season and last, the 17.9% decrease in average rushing can be explained by injuries and by role and scheme changes in the offense. It will be interesting to revisit this analysis next year for this reason. The other thing that will not shock anyone is the drop in passing overall during the current regime, but the uptick from last year to this year, mainly due to “the Gardner effect”, if you will.

An interesting statistic to me as well is that, despite appearances, the pass defense did get better this year compared to last despite what I would term the absence of pure pass rusher, at least in my opinion. The rush defense actually took a step back statistically, although you watching the games makes that difficult to believe for me sometimes.

There are plenty of springboards for discussion in this, I believe, but I am interested in what the MGoCommunity thinks.

ADDENDUM (at the request of Blue In Seattle - excellent idea, BTW):

 

SEASON WINS LOSSES OC  DC
2003 10 3 Terry Malone Jim Herrmann
2004 9 3 Terry Malone Jim Herrmann
2005 7 5 Terry Malone Jim Herrmann
2006 11 2 Mike DeBord Ron English
2007 9 4 Mike DeBord Ron English
2008 3 9 Calvin Magee Scot Shafer
2009 5 7 Calvin Magee Greg Robinson
2010 7 6 Calvin Magee Greg Robinson
2011 11 2 Al Borges Greg Mattison
2012 8 5 Al Borges Greg Mattison

FOR THOSE OF US SUFFERING THROUGH WINTER:

Comments

DonAZ

January 2nd, 2013 at 11:01 AM ^

I continue to wonder if there's a statistic that fully explains a team's season ... and I'm not sure one exists.

My gut sense is 2012 was a season where turnovers cost us more than turnovers in other years.  I wish there was a statistic that captured the "cost per turnover" ... an INT that's a pick-6 is much costlier than a fumble at the 50 that you get back three plays later.

I could be completely wrong about this ... my gut sense may well be whacked.

My sense is also an analysis of 1st down production would show we faced a lot of 2nd and long this year compared to others.  That would be the effect of a lack of running game.

Continuing on a theme ... my sense is Michigan's 3rd down stopping rate was roughly comparable to last year, but we game up "costlier" 3rd down conversions.  How one would place a value on a 3rd down conversion I don't know.

Damn my coffee ... it's not clearing my head as I want it to.

snarling wolverine

January 2nd, 2013 at 12:04 PM ^

Interceptions were a major, major problem this year - we threw 19 on the year (while our opponents threw seven).  I'm not sure, but that's probably our highest total (and the -12 net INT comparison probably the worst) over the past decade.  Putting aside the specific context of each INT, that's just way too many possessions to be giving away without at least punting or kicking field goals.

 

Vasav

January 2nd, 2013 at 11:34 PM ^

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/putting-2011-context-updated

AC1997 did a nice job of figuring out what the best seasons were since Bo came to town based on some simple metrics. It sounds like you're looking for something that's both a) more comprehensive in grading a season and b) has a larger sample size (all seasons not just BCS-level ones). I don't think I've seen anything quite like that, and if I did I'd ask that someone add in pre-Bo seasons as well.

Either way I hope this year-old post can kinda help you get the info you're looking for.

Blue in Seattle

January 2nd, 2013 at 1:47 PM ^

Having the context of the Win-Loss totals would at least add contextual flavor, as well as jog the subjective memory of the reviewer/consumer of your data.  Another interesting context, at least for increasing discussion would be to list the OC/DC for each season.  Your data covers the Terry Malone, return of DeBord, then of course in the RR and Hoke Staff.

Just from memory, it seems to me the best years as far as W-L record were years with the lowest average pts for Scoring Defense.  Also in each of those years the Defense allowed half of what the Offense could generate, on average.

A final point to make for me is that when you compare the average pts of Scoring Offense, the two years with Al Borges match the two years with Rich Rodriguez that cover the Denard Era. So just from the table of statistics you have provided, I would say that Hoke was able to maintain the Denard production equal to, (actually slightly better than) Rich Rodriguez, and of course has dramatically improved the defense.

It boggles my mind when people take a myopic view of one game and conclude that one or more coaches, "need to go".  From the player talent perspective, Hoke pretty much has been coaching Rich Rodriguez's players.  In doing that he matched the Offensive production and improved the Defensive production.  The reviews on talent indicate Hoke has improved there over previous years.  I really don't understand what there is to doubt about this staff.