UPDATED (SUN NITE) Quick BCS update, Now With BCS standings!

Submitted by Wolverine In Exile on November 8th, 2009 at 11:59 AM
EDIT:: updated projected BCS with conference tie-ins. thanks to posters.
EDIT EDIT:: Now updated with BCS standings from Sunday night.

I thought I'd give a quick recap as to how things stand following yesterday's amazing day of action.

The championship:

Key Points:
1) Fla / Ala still on track for "OMG Death Match 2009 Greatest Game In History of College Football" in SEC championship. After looking at the polls released this morning and listening to some of the scuttlebutt in the media, I think this is a no-doubt elimination game for one of the nat'l championship slots. Ala got their big roadblock game out of the way, and even a loss to Auburn may not hold them back fro the BCS championship if they beat Fla in the SEC Championship. Fla only has SoCar, Fla Intl and FSU left, so their path seems fairly straight.

2) A Big XII champion Texas will take the second slot. The only real probable stumbles for Texas left are roadies at Baylor (not too hard) and at Tex A&M (rivalry, but still should be a blowout). The big rock in their  path now is the Big XII championship game where either a DL loaded Neb or a resurgent K-St awaits.

3) TCU has jumped Cincy for #4 in BCS, but this may be temporary as Cincy's high profile schedule is about to start. However, looking at the BCS standings (4th in both human polls and 4th in computers) I don't think we can discount anymore the real possibility that TCU's a stunning Cinderella to human voters to the point where they may stay ahead of Cincy as prime beneficiary of a Fla/Ala/Tex stumble. I still think Cincy in the end is going to end up ahead of TCU, but I think the chances of a TCU jump and hold over Cincy is growing.

4) Sorry Boise, but you're out unless TCU stumbles and everyone else collapses. Your hopes were banked on a 1-loss Oregon and voters with a moral dilemma on whether to vote a team with a worse record and a loss head to head above you. Boise looks good in BCS standings, but may be the first team to be in all the positions (non BCS conf in the top 8) for an auto-qualify but not get one.

The At-Large Situation
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Reference: 10 slots, 6 conf autobids, 4 at large

ACC: Ga Tech
Big East: Cincy
Big Ten: more on that in a moment
Big XII: Texas
SEC: Fla / Ala winner
PAC-10: Oregon, for now

How many at-large left? 4

So does an undefeated non-BCS team get in? For sure one, so let's assume chalk holds and TCU gets the auto-qualify for non-BCS teams.

Ok so now there are 3 at large bids, who's in? 2 bid conferences?
Yes, so let's look at candidates by conference.

ACC: No one jumps out. Maybe a 2-loss Miami at #14 in BCS standings? Let's put them in the candidate pool

Big East: 1-loss Pitt would be the only real resume blockbuster (#12 BCS), but if we assume a Cincy win in two weeks, then a 2-loss Pitt isn't that attractive.

Big Ten: Here's the rub. Penn St was all setup to be a 2nd BCS bid easy, but with the turmoil of yesterday, it seems that Iowa (#10 BCS) / Ohio St (#11 BCS)  next week is an elimination game. I don't think a 2- loss Iowa, a 3-loss OSU or a 2-loss Penn St (who lost every meaningful game this year) is that attractive.

Big XII: A 2-loss OkSt (#19) would seem to be on the only candidate. We'll throw them in the pool

SEC: Fla / Ala loser. That's it since conferences can't get more than 1 at large

PAC-10: Is a 2-loss USC attractive? In this climate, yes. USC sits at #9 BCS. If Oregon (#13 BCS) tanks again though, we're only looking at 1 Pac-10 team. Arizona has a good BCS rank (#17) but USC and Oregon are going to take the Pac-10's two slots available.

Anyone else?
Yes, an undefeated Boise St team gets a dip in the candidate pool.

So anyone get in right away?
Assuming Oregon holds on to get the Pac-10 title, and USC wins out, I'll put a 2-loss USC team in.

So who's in at at-larges? TCU, Fla/Ala loser, USC

Leaving? undefeated Boise St, 2-loss Miami, 2-loss Pitt, 2-loss OkSt

Meaning? as much as cache means with Miami, it may come down to Actual Bowl Slots....

BCS Title: Fla (sake of discussion) v Texas
Rose Bowl: Oregon v. Big Ten Champ (Iowa for sake of discussion)
Orange Bowl:Ga Tech v. ????
Fiesta Bowl: ??? v ???
Sugar Bowl: ??? v. ???

Miami would be a nice choice in the Orange Bowl, but as a poster pointed out, an all-ACC Orange Bowl isn't likely. Let's start with putting the already qualified at-large's + the Big East champ Cincy (since they don't have a formal tie-in) in:

Sugar Bowl: would still like a SEC team, so with Ala sitting there, let's put them in.
Fiesta Bowl: would like a western team for attendance purposes and they get one of the 1st two at-large choices since the Big XII team is in the championship, so let's put USC there (big draw)

So now we have:
BCS Title: Fla v Tex
Rose Bowl: Oregon v. Iowa
Orange Bowl: GaTech v ???
Fiesta Bowl: USC v. ???
Sugar Bowl: Alabama v. ???

Well b/c of conference tie-ins and choices for big name teams, we likely will not have the poor man's natl championship of Cincy v TCU possible. So let's slot:

* Put TCU in Fiesta v USC as Dallas area alums will flock to Arizona
* Cincy as an undefeated team has some interest and a Cincy v Alabama matchup would be good for ratings.
* This leaves the Orange Bowl. As I said before, Miami would be nice, but unlikely due to ACC rematchery. next best looking is either an undefeated Boise St or the Fighting T-Boone's. While OkSt may guarantee an ungodly number of tickets sold due to Pickens fronting cash, I think Boise gets it.

So that's it?
Well no. If either USC or Oregon drops another game, I think you may be looking at a "poor man's natl championship" in the Fiesta Bowl with TCU v. Boise St, Cincy v Alabama in the Sugar, and OkSt taking on GaTech in the Orange.

Any big losers from yesterday?
Yes, three big losers come out
1) Penn St-- they had a BCS bid locked if they could just win out. Now they may be competing with Wisconsin&tOSU/Iowa for 2nd best Big 10 bowl
2) Notre Dame-- Another team who had their BCS bid mapped out, beat Navy, Pitt, UConn, and Stanford, and they're cashing a huge check.
3) The Pac-10-- Oregon's loss as mentioned above puts 2 Pac-10 BCS bids in serious question.

We stand on the precipice of 4 Div I teams being undefeated at the end of the season, all with BCS victories. Chaos ensues.

Comments

redfirelx

November 8th, 2009 at 12:18 PM ^

Bowl tie-ins are below unless a team is in the BCS Championship game:

Rose Bowl - Big Ten champ vs. Pac-10 champ
Fiesta Bowl - Big 12 champ
Orange Bowl - ACC champ
Sugar Bowl - SEC champ

Big East Champ has no tie-in, but gets an BCS spot.

GT would have to be in the Orange Bowl.

BostonWolverine

November 8th, 2009 at 12:38 PM ^

I personally think an undefeated Boise State will make it, especially since they beat the BCS rep for the Pac 10 in Oregon. I also think USC is too much of a money-maker to lose a spot. Which means the at-larges will be: TCU, Boise St., USC and the FLA/ALA loser.

That said, if Boise St. plays a 1-loss 'Bama team (Sugar), Cincy plays Georgia Tech (Orange) and TCU plays (Fiesta) with Texas/Florida in the title game, there's a possibility for FOUR undefeated teams to end the season. And if Boise can knock off 'Bama, or TCU can knock off USC, the BCS is going to be in deep, deep trouble. Deeper than it already is.

My guess is they're not going to do that. They'll put 'Bama in the Orange against GT, so 'Bama isn't against an upstart team that could have a legitimate title beef if they lose.

The battle of undefeateds: TCU vs. UC will get a lot of ratings, and since they're both on the fringes, whoever wins will not make too much of a title splash, because an Undefeated TCU is less than a 1-loss 'Bama, for whatever reason.

Boise St. going against USC will then happen, because while USC is respected as a program, they have an excuse to win that game (BSU beat Oregon, who beat USC). You can nod to a "down year" for USC and that's all set.

I think we could be looking at 3 undefeated teams from BCS conferences - UC is the real deal. I'm from Cincinnati, so I have been paying pretty close attention to the Bearcats since they joined the Big East.

Regardless, the BCS is going to have to do a lot of work to keep themselves from really screwing up what little credibility they have left. I don't think they'll succeed.

Wolverine In Exile

November 8th, 2009 at 1:02 PM ^

Trouble is in the form of congressional hearings that threaten the BCS's monopoly. Chaos is multiple undefeated teams at the end. If Boise, TCU and Cincy all finish the regular season undefeated and all get BCS slots, then congress loses their big stick, in that all the schools got a chance to get paid, much less play for a natl title. The "trouble" for the BCS would be if undefeated Boise and TCU don't get in the money with a BCS game... then you'd have the senators demanding more hearings and causing problems for the BCS coalition.

Quick check shows that neither of the current Texas senators are TCU grads, so they lose that advocacy :)

If chaos occurs, all the better for the BCS, b/c in that scenario, the more debate the better for increasing ratings and interest.

BostonWolverine

November 8th, 2009 at 1:23 PM ^

I see trouble as "will no longer exist after 2014."

A situation like that is the perfect moment for playoff apologists to get themselves heard. As I am in favor of a playoff, I see an occurrence like this as a huge opportunity.

That's why I think the matchups will be the way I said in the post (if all the wins play out). The controversy won't be as big, so playoff supporters won't have as big of a beef.

The trouble is losing credibility - it has so little among fans at this point. If the situation I proposed plays out, then it won't have any left. Four undefeated teams, all of whom played (and beat) tough opponents? It's chaos, sure, but it's three teams that didn't have the chance to prove themselves - or DID prove themselves but don't have anything to show for it.

MichiganFootball

November 8th, 2009 at 2:42 PM ^

Can Miami be in Orange Bowl against Georgia Tech? I am unclear if there is rule that would prevent them from picking two ACC teams for that Bowl. Regardless I don't think the Orange Bowl would want that match up b/c of the way Miami already beat Georgia Tech this year.

As for the at larges I think regardless of what happens with the rest of the Pac 10, USC is in if they win out (which is no sure thing as they could easily lose to either Stanford or Arizona). Miami is probably next in the pecking order as long as the opening is not in the Orange Bowl. I still think that Penn State would go over an undefeated Boise team. Think of it from the perspective of a BCS bowl, would you rather have a Cincinnati-Boise/Georgia Tech-Boise match up or a Cincinnati-Penn State/Georgia Tech-Penn State match up? I do think that if Ohio State beats Iowa, Boise has a decent chance of getting picked over Iowa.

The bowl selection order for this years games is Orange, Fiesta, Sugar (though Bowl's that lose a team to the national championship get to pick before this)

I think match-ups will look like

National championship: Alabama(assuming they beat Florida)-Texas

Rose Bowl-Ohio State/Iowa vs. Arizona/Oregon
Sugar Bowl- Florida(b/c they lose national championship they get first pick of remaining teams) vs. TCU
Fiesta Bowl-USC (they would second pick of remaining teams because they lose the second ranked team) vs. Cincinnati
Orange Bowl-Georgia Tech vs. Penn State

Irish

November 8th, 2009 at 11:05 PM ^

I think the 2nd opponents for the Orange and Sugar bowls are really yet to be decided, but if your doing it right now really can't complain. Its a good write up.