Tom Izzo and the "more with less" fallacy

Submitted by ClearEyesFullHart on April 4th, 2014 at 12:13 AM

     Izzo inherited a ridiculously loaded MSU team in 1995. Quinton Brooks is largely hailed as one of the best small forwards to lace 'em up for MSU. Power forward Jamie Feick went on to play for the 76'ers. Ray Weathers went on to play for the Suns. Jon Garavaglia was a McDonalds All American and Mr. Basketball. In his first year, he also brought in Morris Peterson of the Toronto Raptors and Antonio Smith. Izzo took that team all the way to the second round of the NIT.

     Then on Feb.17, 1996 There was a rollover accident on M-14 involving U-M player Maurice Taylor’s Ford Explorer. Teammates Robert Traylor, Louis Bullock, Willie Mitchell, Ron Oliver and recruit Mateen Cleaves were all in the vehicle.

   

     Izzo capitalized, adding Mateen Cleaves(Pistons) and David Thomas(founder of Wendy's) who helped MSU all the way back to the second round of the NIT. The parade of blue chips continued with Charlie Bell(Suns) and Andre Hutson(Beat up Chuck Norris when Matt Trannon was but a twinkle in his father's eye). This ushered in the Golden Age of MSU basketball('98,'99, 00) when MSU would bookend a National Championship with two additional Final 4's. Loaded as those teams were, this Golden Age led to the great Tom Izzo “More with Less” fallacy. Because MSU does not recruit on the level of Kentucky, Kansas and Duke(them and 342 other schools) Izzo somehow gained the “Beilein” reputation, the coach who advances in the tournament despite his (Perceived) lack of talent.

     Izzo has led the Spartans for 19 long years. Impressively, he has had them in the NCAA Tournament for the last 17 of them(One or two of those came with a wink and a nod from the selection committee, but we'll come back to that). That's not quite the 34 year bowl streak Michigan enjoyed under Bo-Mo-Carr, but that kind of consistency is rare in college basketball. Under Izzo's reign, MSU has been to 6 Final Fours and won a National Championship. They've also been bounced in the first round 4 times and lost in the Sweet 16 4 times. Until recently, MSU just dominated Michigan in terms of head to head as well as the post-season. Beilein has obviously turned that around in the last 4 years, winning 6 of the last 9. But that is a local issue. You don't come up with an OP title like that simply because there's a new sheriff in town. No, what leads me to believe that the end is near for Izzo is something much more sinister. Recruiting.

     Despite what the media would have you believe, Izzo has simply never HAD to do more with less. He has always been a good recruiter, and he has always had more. I went back and looked at some recruiting numbers and outcomes. There are a number of caveats here. Trey Burke and Caris Lavert were 3* recruits. But to some extent you can look at it as a numbers game(like fantasy football). There's something like a 60% chance that Fantasypros(or Rivals) is going to have each player ranked correctly, a 20% chance they'll be significantly better, and a 20% chance they're going to be worse(Unless you're John Beilein). But if you look at MSU's elite recruit Rivals numbers as far as they go back adding a star for each year of experience(assuming that a sophomore 4* is equal to a freshman 5* and that a 3* player encompasses too great a range to even consider) you find:


2002: 5* Elite 8
2003: 4* 5* First Round
2004: 4* 5* Final 4
2005: bupkis(Roster score of 32) First Round
2006: 4* 4*(RS 28) Second Round
2007: 4* 4* 4*(RS 37) Sweet 16
2008: 4* 5* (RS 36) Runner Up
2009: 4* 4*(RS 51!) Final 4
2010: 4* 5 *(RS 53) First Round
2011: 5*(RS 43) Sweet 16
2012: 5*(Harris) 4* 4*(RS 46) Sweet 16
2013: bupkis(RS 38) Elite 8
2014: 4*(RS 24)

     That's a score of 24 for next year. The next lowest would be the 28 from 2006, the year where MSU scraped into the tournament(wink, nod) .500 in conference and got bounced the first weekend. That team was a 4* player better than next year's roster.  The next lowest was the 2005 team(two 4* players better) that also went .500 in conference and lost in the first round.  For reference, 2009's Final 4 team was rated 51.  For those keeping score at home, in the measurable past that's a Roster Average of 40 points(the equivalent of 8 5* freshmen). More with more.

     Assuming that Dawson stays and Harris leaves, on paper this coming year's State team will be the worst (from a rivals ratings and experience standpoint) since the modern era of recruiting sites(turn of the century). With Izzo reaching for 3* recruits these days, and the NCAA taking steps to weed out thug ball, I don't see much help on the horizon for them either. You're looking at Dawson as a 5* senior, Valentine and Costello as 4* juniors, and that 4* freshman point guard who can't shoot coming in. That's it.

So what happened to Izzo's recruiting? Several things.

     Somewhere in the early 2000's, the NBA stopped playing defense. You see that 5* all the way up there next to 2003? That's Shannon Brown. That's the last one of the guys represented here that went on to the NBA. You're looking at a decade of player development failure.  Obviously, the NBA is the dream for a lot of recruits, and Izzo just plain isn't getting it done. Draymond Green(3* recruit not included) should also be mentioned. Not only is he getting 20 minutes per game in the NBA despite playing for MSU, but he is doing it as an undersized defensive specialist. In a league where the regular season has become the all star game.

 

Facilities.

breslin1

 

 

breslin 2

 

 

The Breslin Center was state of the art in 1989, but it has barely been touched since then. I'm no interior decorator, but moldy concrete is generally not the way to go. 

     Style: Michigan State's defensive mandate is clear: If your man gains an advantage on you, push him, grab him, do what you've got to do. It works great if you can get away with it, but this year MSU is collecting personal fouls like Pokemon cards

I can understand Izzo's feelings of entitlement, as he has benefitted from lazy Big Ten officiating for his entire career, but if you make contact with your hand, arm or elbow away from your body, it is a foul.  It has always been a foul.  He made jokes after the UConn game about his players not being allowed to "touch anybody" and I can totally see where he's coming from.  Who would have ever thought they'd make him play by the rules?

 

     (Related)Results: Call it Karma. Call it correlation without causation. But MSU has badly underperformed their talent level against Michigan(JMo foul trouble aside) or more importantly in the post-season since the Wonders Hall incident. It sounds great, they made it to the Sweet 16 three times. But before the Virginia upset their post season scalps were pretty weak.  St. Louis, Long Island, Valpo, Memphis, Delaware, Harvard. Sixth Seed Memphis is the only one that even moves the needle.  2010 stands out as Izzo's most glaring failure, as their most talented team(RS 53) lost out in the first round.  With a 4-6 year window to grab the attention of high school kids, Izzo's time is running out.

 

(Related) Disillusionment. Izzo seems generally unhappy, and his interaction with the press has lost an air of...sanity.

     If you're keeping score at home, he comes into the press conference near tears. He rips his own recruiting, whining that he has to play guys he hasn't played in a month. Then he cries about the officiating. Then he cries at the officiating again. Then he complains about poor Keith Appling's wrist.

I don't know if many recruits want to play for a sniveling whining excuse machine.

Then you've got the UConn press conference.  His team was just upset by a team that by most accounts has no business in the Final 4, and Izzo seems...Relieved

I dont know of many coaches who would seem that happy that their season was over, that they wouldn't have to coach that particular group of players again.  With this group though, he probably wasn't alone.

 

     This is the most concerning if I am a Michigan State fan. The man calls attention to the Federal Rape Investigation that has been kept out of the media...For no other reason than that he is addicted to making excuses. Then he calls it “ridiculous” and says that he's “sick of it”. Now, whatever you think of the Wonder's Hall incident...Put yourself in the shoes of the victim. Then look at what the mouthpiece of your school is saying about the event that changed your life. Even if that's what you're thinking...What kind of human being is so self-absorbed and stupid that they can spout off PUBLICLY about such a terrible allegation as a personal annoyance? And then when they asked him to elaborate, he told members of the press, “Don't mess with me right now”. You brought it up sir.  The MSU student newspaper just broke the story that Federal Authorities are investigating the victim's claim that the University "engaged in activities to malign her character" in retaliation for her reporting the assault.  I am sure the victim is quite sorry for inconveniencing a man of Izzo's stature. http://statenews.com/article/2014/04/student-claimed-msu-retaliated-against-her-for-reported-assault 

 

Personality.

Most players dont like being trashed in the media and getting the full Bobby Knight treatment in front of their friends and family.  Even the biased MSU media admits that he goes too far http://www.freep.com/article/20140113/BLOG05/301130041/hey-joe-michigan-state-spartans-tom-izzo  But Izzo seems unable to coach any other way, and his talent level is shifting accordingly.

They say that you want to leave a program “Better than you found it”, and the guy won a Championship and went to a bunch of Final 4's, but if he bailed for the NBA or even retired with the roster in its current state...What would that do to his legacy? Everyone has an instinct for self-preservation,but the words “cowardly” and “selfish” might come up. Not in the media of course, they write what he tells them to write. I mean in living rooms and around water coolers.

 

With all of this said, Izzo could pull through this in two or three years. For MSU, that simple metric does seem to predict season outcome pretty well, but if you look at it, Beilein won a Big Ten Championship with a roster score of 5.  Beilein made it to the NCAA Championship game with a roster score of 13. But Tom Izzo is no John Beilein. Can you imagine what Beilein would do with the 40's Izzo has averaged over his career? I very much look forward to finding out.

 

Comments

A State Fan

April 4th, 2014 at 1:29 AM ^

But I'm not really buying the narrative most posters on here are selling.

The idea that Izzo is more insufferable now is less a product of him changing than it is of Michigan fans actually caring about basketball for the first time in his tenure at MSU.

Izzo took a decent but inconsistent MSU program to one of the 5-10 best in the country year in year out. Up until 5 days ago he had one of the most improbable streaks in college bball. Was some of it luck? Yeah. But your final four run last year had some breaks too, that's the nature of the tourney. Msu went S16, S16, S16, E8 the last four years, a stretch only matched/exceeded by Florida (probably, I'm not fact checking as I type this). In that time, Michigan has gone R32, R64, Champ game, E8. Duke's gone LOL. Most programs would kill for the consistency Izzo has brought to MSU.

Now there are a couple good points in the post about early entrants/NBA players. Not a lot of guys are there from the last few years. But Alan Anderson is cashing checks right now, and I think Kalin Lucas would have gone early had he not torn his Achilles (looking at me, still talking injuries haha).

Next year MSU loses a lot of scoring from this team, but I still think they can be top 4-5 in the conference. Its gonna have to be an Izzo team of old though.

A State Fan

April 8th, 2014 at 12:56 AM ^

going off Wikipedia:
7 conf titles
4 BTT titles
.715 win %

4 conf players of the year
18 All Big Ten players
6 All Americans

So yes, being a successful head coach is more than just ncaa tournament success. And Izzo has had his share of success in everything else as well

ClearEyesFullHart

April 4th, 2014 at 1:49 AM ^

"Msu went S16, S16, S16, E8 the last four years"  Well no, in Payne's freshman year(one of the most talented teams Izzo has had) they went out in the first round.  And seriously, look at the teams they beat to get to the Sweet 16.  Before Virginia, they hadn't beaten a ranked team in 4 years of NCAA tournaments.  And Alan Anderson is considerably older than Shannon Brown. 

A State Fan

April 4th, 2014 at 2:08 AM ^

Yeah but I think Shannon Brown is only on 10 day contracts, so I referenced someone who I'm pretty sure is guaranteed. All this is on my phone, so I'm going off memory.

And I see you're right about Payne's first year. I guess during our elite eight game when the announcers said we'd been to three straight S16's, they included the current one. (I try to block out that season anyways, too frustrating haha)

freejs

April 4th, 2014 at 9:00 PM ^

He's obviously benefited from the other program in his state wandering through a ten year wilderness. 

It's not just that UM fans have rediscovered basketball - the program is back and in a big way and you just can't like that if you're Tom Izzo. 

I think his excuse making helped the team have confidence going into this tournament, but it was always a false chin just waiting to be cracked. Was anyone really shocked by the arguing on the bench in the UConn game? 

I also agree with the original poster that it may be time to be a little concerned about MSU's current level of attractiveness. 

He's not going to stop being a good coach - he's obviously a good coach, and any other view of that seems pretty silly. But I do think he's starting to coach pretty tight and that wears on a team eventually. I also think this was far from his finest year of coaching. 

A State Fan

April 8th, 2014 at 12:50 AM ^

took me a while to come back to this thread, I'll toss some responses here and see what happens.

When you say that michigan was wandering through the wilderness and is now back, MSU and UM dont seem to recruit the same kids. So I don't think a Michigan rise is the death of MSU. In fact, most the kids we've both recruited lately have done elsewhere (Kennard, Booker mainly).

I also think that Izzo's recruiting will pick up the next couple classes. he went all in on the big names and missed out on the middle tier the last two years.

arguing on the bench: nothing new. Payne and Dawson have always been yelling at each other and others. Dawson lit into Gauna a lot this year, but I dont think anyone on this team didn't get along and didn't understand the goals of this team were lofty

B-Nut-GoBlue

April 4th, 2014 at 3:09 AM ^

ClearEyes...I had a spare five, yes five whole minutes most around here didn't/don't have, so I guess appreciate the effort and I apparently don't need to look into "WHAT WAS THE REEEAAASON YOU HAD FOR WRITING THIS!!!???".  It was an interesting read regardless of the intention and/or original purpose.

And if I didn't have the time I wouldn't bitch about it....and naturally, now I'm an asshole for mentioning that last bit (I gdo understand some of you are just giving him shit with the tl;dr nonesense)

Cold War

April 4th, 2014 at 6:29 AM ^

In the 2014 class, Staee has a 4 star and two 3 stars. We have a 4 star and three 3 stars. In 2015 they have a 4 star . We have no 2015 commits. They also have a shot at Josh Jackson.

Trebor

April 4th, 2014 at 7:34 AM ^

To be fair, they have about as good a shot at Jackson as we do. Kid's almost assuredly leaving the state for college.

However, if you look at the other prospects with interest in MSU vs. those with interest in M, we better not get comfortable next year when they have a down year. Unless Izzo actually leaves (I'll believe he heads to the NBA the day after he coaches a game), they're not going anywhere because there's still a ton of interest from high-level basketball players in their program. And even if Izzo does leave? There will be plenty of interest in that job from some really solid coaches.

Victor Valiant

April 4th, 2014 at 6:41 AM ^

Although I do disagree with the thrust of the writing as far as Izzo being a less than great coach.

I'll now go back to reading the "tl;dr" and "why did you post this theory 101" replies.

MGJS SuperKick Party

April 4th, 2014 at 6:49 AM ^

1. As insufferable as Izzo is on the court, he's a quality human being and a fantastic father.

2. Why do we care? Let's just focus on our team. We are starting our own streak of NCAA tournaments, and we are getting players who fit our team.

NOLA Wolverine

April 4th, 2014 at 8:08 AM ^

Again, he's famous for out playing his seeding in the tournament, not being Duke or Kansas. What do you want out of him? He took a 4 seed to the elite eight this year, he's basically been chugging along. 

marco dane

April 4th, 2014 at 8:53 AM ^

and he lost. To make matter worst:

5* C Jahil Okafor 6-11/260 from Chicago

5* PG Tyus Jones 6-1/175 from Apple Valley,Mn

rebuffed him also. Izzo recuriting prowess is being tested by coaches within midwest espically by Coach B.

Never,never place all your eggs on one curit...certainly will comeback to bite you in the end.

I'm going to enjoy these next couple of years watching him meltdown...

name redacted

April 4th, 2014 at 9:59 AM ^

100% true. Whether ppl here want to accept it or not, every post like this just proves to me that in basketball, WE are the little brother.

You could take 90% of this and flip it and post on a sparty blog: why Mich football has never had to do more with less, player development, etc etc .

GoBlogSparty

April 4th, 2014 at 10:34 AM ^

Where are you getting this meme from about Izzo doing more with less? I would say he normally targets the 4-year type players and molds them into 1 on 1 defenders before giving them much playing time, but I wouldn't call that "less". 

ClearEyesFullHart

April 4th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^

     If I had a dollar for every time a talking head has pointed out that Izzo is "Doing it without NBA talent" I'd buy out the Breslin and pay homeless people to root for the other team.  Thing is, they sure look like NBA talent when they get on campus.  What happens after that?  

     Gary Harris is your exception, and he is a great, great basketball player, but his growth under Izzo can best be summed up as "Push off before you shoot and you wont get the ball spiked back into your face".  I feel fairly confident that I could have coached Gary Harris to the NBA in two years.  Might have been less prone to foul out on the next level too.

GoBlogSparty

April 4th, 2014 at 12:56 PM ^

I think the doing more with less meme belongs to the football coach rather than the basketball coach. Never once have I heard that MSU basketball does not bring in top-flight talent. The reason that doesn't translate into NBA success has to do with player development of the freshman phenoms (Marquise Gray, Kelvin Torbert, etc). That doesn't take anything away from his hall of fame level collegiate accomplishments. 

jmblue

April 4th, 2014 at 10:48 AM ^

Upvoted for being informative, but I don't think we really need to worry that much about MSU at this point.  We are functionally a peer program of theirs by now.  They will probably always be pretty good with Izzo, but we will be as well with Beilein. 

nowicki2005

April 4th, 2014 at 11:59 AM ^

I believe we have way better assistants as far as helping our player development. I could be an msu assistant and just throw the ball at the rim for their war drill or whatever its called. Jordan has did a phenomenal job with our guards.