Pretty much what I predicted last year

Last year I published my first stock watch based on my preseason team ratings and schedules and compared them to the Vegas preseason projections to identify teams that I thought would be outliers from the consensus opinion on preseason predictions. While I had some mixed results, all three of Michigan’s main rivals were flagged as potential outliers and my numbers differed from most preseason projections.

Here are some quotes I wrote prior to last year’s season:

Ohio State

It pains me to admit it but this Buckeye team could be very dangerous…The Buckeyes are set up for Urban to get credit for an upswing they probably would have had anyway, but it will probably take some significant first year growing pains to keep Ohio from a great theoretical bowl game.

Notre Dame

For once in their football life the Domers could actually be underrated heading into this season…If the bounces go Notre Dame’s way this season they have a shot to be a top-10 team. Their biggest hurdle is going to be a schedule that entering the season looks to be far and away the nation’s toughest…there are plenty of other reasons to be optimistic on the Irish roster.

Michigan State

I have no doubts the Spartan defense is going to be good. I just don’t think they are going to be great and I have major questions about the offense. With a new quarterback and nearly 90% of their receiving production gone, there is little history on their side that they can have a productive offense. Breaking in that many new players at skill positions has Sparty projected to be one of the worst offenses in the country this year, Le’Veon Bell or not. Their defense will keep them afloat but unless Michigan St breaks in a new crew on offense at an unprecedented rate, the offense will be this team’s limiting reagent.

I took the most heat for the MSU pick as several Spartans caught wind of this and told me how a first year quarterback and new wide receivers were nothing to be that concerned about and were highly offended about my prediction as one of the worst offenses in the country. 20 points per game later, I stand by my prediction.

After the big three, it wasn’t all sunshine and roses. I did pick Texas to contend for a national championship, Missouri and Tennessee to be mid-level SEC teams and Kansas State to fall back to the middle of the Big 12.

On the other plus side, I pegged LSU, West Virginia and Arkansas all dead on.

Overall the success was mixed but for Michigan’s three main rivals, I would put my preseason prognostication on them up against anyone’s.

This year my predictions for Michigan and its three rivals are dead on with Vegas heading into the season. Notre Dame should settle in to an average of the unlucky 2011 and the lucky 2012 (8.7 predicted versus 8.5 Vegas). Michigan State should see the offense get better and the defense get worse and compete with Michigan and Nebraska  for the Legends Division title (8.2 versus 8.5). Ohio State should ride an easy schedule to double digit wins (10.7 versus 11) and Michigan is projected to another year of holding serve before the recruits start flooding into the starting lineup (8.6 versus 8.5). There isn’t any significant room between my predictions on these four teams and the Vegas preseason lines.

So who do I disagree on? Let’s look at the five major conferences.

Big Ten

The only title contender I have any major difference with the oddsmakers is in Wisconsin. My numbers are a big fan of new coach Gary Andersen and I have the Badgers nearly a whole game (9.8 versus 9) ahead of the Vegas number. Nebraska will have the inside track for the top record in the Legends Division thanks to an easy schedule. Michigan is rated as the best team, but consider the Huskers frontrunners thanks to a slate that avoids both Wisconsin and Ohio State.

Northwestern, Purdue and Penn State are the three teams I have the most disagreement on and I think they are all three overrated by at least 2 games.

SEC

No major differences for SEC teams. Alabama is obviously the favorite with Georgia and Texas A&M as my two leading contenders. Like last season, I still think South Carolina is a good but not great team.

Big 12

2013 should be a fulcrum year for Texas and Mack Brown. After an amazing run in the 2000’s, the 2010’s have not been the brightest lines on Brown’s resume. If he has the capacity to turn it around, 2013 should be the season to do it. Texas’s roster is rated the highest of any team since the 2011 Alabama squad (based on recruiting rankings with upperclassmen weighted heavily). Several groups are also high on Texas, I have them projected at 10.6 wins, a full game clear of Vegas and everyone else in the Big 12.

By biggest sell team of the year is TCU. Vegas has them predicted at 8 wins and I don’t see them making it to bowl eligibility. Kansas and Charlie Weis could exceed expectations, I have the Jayhawks with an outside shot at bowl eligibility.

Pac-12

Like the SEC and the Big Ten, I think the Pac-12 has a clear-cut frontrunner. Even with the loss of Chip Kelly, I think Oregon is in line for 11 wins on average. I see USC as the biggest threat, I have them a game ahead of Vegas at 10.4 wins (in 13 games) versus Vegas’s 9.5. Stanford is projected at the same 9.5 but I have them as a distant third in the Pac-12 with only 8.3 projected wins.

ACC

Of the seven teams in the new ACC projected to win at least 7 games by Vegas, I am within a half game in my projections for all of them except Virginia Tech. Like TCU from the Big 12, I think Virginia Tech is vastly overrated this year and am only projecting them at 5.2 wins for the season. 

Michigan

As noted above, I am mostly in line with the Vegas line of 8.5 wins for this Michigan season, but barring a Gardner injury, there is definitely more upside to downside. Michigan has 8 games where they should be a solid favorite. At their projected level, odds are that one of them finds a way to get away, but if they can win all 8, that leaves coin flip games against Nebraska, Michigan State, Notre Dame and Ohio State. If Michigan is better than expected at all, those 8 games should move to virtual locks and make a double digit win season a very real season. Without a major change event, there is a very solid downside firewall in place for this season, at least if you think, like me, that Penn State and Northwestern are generally overrated entering the season.