So I decided I wanted to do an in-depth analysis of in-state recruiting to see if I could prove or disprove what people are saying about Dantonio dominating. For the sake of argument, I’m using Rivals rankings and considering 2008 a full year for Rich Rod because he did have to “re-recruit” kids. I’m only going to look at the Top 10 each year. NOTE: I wrote this intro before I started adding up the totals to try and avoid biases. I’m going 10 points for #1, 9 points for #2, ect.
2008 Michigan: 10 for Cissoko, 9 for O’neill (even though he’s gone), 4 for Martin, 3 for Demens.
2008 Michigan State: 6 for Smith, 2 for Hoover, 1 for Burrell
2009 Michigan: 10 for Campbell, 5 for Gordon
2009 Michigan State: 9 for Baker, 8 for Norman, 7 for Maxwell, 4 for Caper, 3 for Sims, 2 for Treadwell, 1 for Gainer
This is 41 points for Michigan, 43 for Michigan State.
I think you can make a good argument as well that a lot of those 43 points Michigan State accumulated was due to kids Michigan did not recruit due to the new system. For instance, reports are that while RR offered Larry Caper, he did not recruit him very hard. The same goes for Dion Sims. As a disclaimer, this is not to say Dantonio isn’t getting some kids RR wanted. I’m sure Rich Rod wanted Baker and Norman, for example.
Now onto 2010 where Michigan is coming off a 3-9 season that is supposed to affect recruiting greatly.
1. William Ghoston, Michigan State: This one was gift wrapped for Dantonio. I would have loved to have him though.
2. Joe Boisture, Michigan State: This is not a kid who fits in Michigan’s system.
3. Dior Mathis, uncommitted: This is a kid we have a shot with, but at a position where it’s not urgent that we land him.
4. Max Bullough, Michigan State: Legacy recruit. This is 2 of the top 3 in-state recruits that are State commits that were gift-wrapped for MD.
5. Devin Gardner, Michigan: According to reports, I’d be surprised if he weren’t at least #2 in-state during the re-ranks.
Those are the only kids I see in the Rivals250. I don’t know what the order of in-state kids would be after that. What I believe will happen here is that we will land Mathis or he will go out-of-state. Gardner will be at least #2 in-state. Two of MSU’s recruits were locks. Yet, Michigan could still end up with 2 of the top 5 with Boisture being the swing guy (a pro style guy who we weren’t recruiting)
Needless to say, I’m not nearly as worried about in-state recruiting as others are. Like many have said over and over, Michigan can merely go out-of-state to get the rest of what we need. And ask yourself this. Did you ever think to yourself “that win over MSU would have been better if a Pennsylvania kid hadn’t thrown a touchdown to an Ohio kid, but rather it was two Michigan kids?” I doubt it.
Happy 4th everyone!!
P.S. for the record, I do think Dantonio is a good coach and that MSU is going to have a solid program...until he leaves for a better job like Saban did ;)