S&P Data for Rivals

Submitted by alum96 on October 7th, 2015 at 5:16 PM

Just posting this for kicks since I track it.

This is the S&P+ data for opponents thru 6 weeks of UM, OSU, MSU.  I also posted those 3 teams week over week changes in data - both OSU and MSU had rough weeks in S&P+ rightly so.  This is still early enough in the year, 1 bad or good week can make you move a lot.

In terms of the 18 opponents (5 weeks completed + this week) biggest movers (i.e. 30 spots-ish) were:

  • CMU's D took a huge step up for holding N.Ill to 19.  Even if N. Ill offense has a bad rank.  There could have been other factors like CMU's earlier opponents (not named MSU) doing better.
  • VA Tech's offensive S&P ranking sunk as Pitt held them down and they continue to look like boogers.

Utah slid its way up on both offense and defense as they did nothing but sit in a bye as other top teams looked LOL.   BYU's D also got a 10ish slot pop.  Maryland's O sunk further into the abyss thanks to UM.

==========================

Overall same perception as last week - MSU has faced the best offenses, and OSU the worst.  UM has faced by far the best defenses (will be 4 top 50 defenses after this week).  Even UNLV's D is wonderfully meh by S&P+ standard?  Which is better than we thought.

  Off S&P+ Def S&P+   Off S&P+ Def S&P+    
UM 53 3   48 4    
OSU 52 20   33 6    
MSU 33 40   19 26    
               
               
Offenses Faced              
  Opp S&P+     Opp S&P+     Opp S&P+
Utah 30   VATech 78   W. MI 61
Oregon St 83   Hawaii 121   Oregon 20
UNLV 98   N. Ill 106   Air Force 27
BYU 46   W. MI 69   C. MI 90
Maryland 104   Ind 17   Purdue  69
NW 100   Maryland 104   rutgers 91
  76.8     82.5     59.7
               
               
Defenses Faced              
  Opp S&P+     Opp S&P+     Opp S&P+
Utah 31   VATech 55   W. MI 112
Oregon St 46   Hawaii 72   Oregon 91
UNLV 64   N. Ill 26   Air Force 52
BYU 29   W. MI 112   C. MI 42
Maryland 60   Ind 96   Purdue  76
NW 6   Maryland 60   rutgers 111
  39.3     70.2     80.7
               

 

Comments

MichAero

October 7th, 2015 at 6:02 PM ^

Thanks for putting something like this together. It's nice being able to somewhat look at the SOS of each team thus far.

Quick Question: I'm assuming that the first column of S&P stats are this weeks, and the second column is last weeks? It makes sense with the rest of your write-up, but I don't see anything that makes that apparent.

oriental andrew

October 8th, 2015 at 11:23 AM ^

Why show this week's opponents in the O/D we've faced averages? Seems to make more sense to show teams we've played, average, then this week's team as a comparison to the current averages. 

We haven't faced 4 top 50 defenses YET.

Offenses Faced              
  Opp S&P+     Opp S&P+     Opp S&P+
Utah 30   VATech 78   W. MI 61
Oregon St 83   Hawaii 121   Oregon 20
UNLV 98   N. Ill 106   Air Force 27
BYU 46   W. MI 69   C. MI 90
Maryland 104   Ind 17   Purdue  69
  72.2     78.2     53.4
NW 100   Maryland 104   rutgers 91
               
               
Defenses Faced              
  Opp S&P+     Opp S&P+     Opp S&P+
Utah 31   VATech 55   W. MI 112
Oregon St 46   Hawaii 72   Oregon 91
UNLV 64   N. Ill 26   Air Force 52
BYU 29   W. MI 112   C. MI 42
Maryland 60   Ind 96   Purdue  76
  46     72.2     74.6
NW 6   Maryland 60   rutgers 111

 

alum96

October 7th, 2015 at 9:05 PM ^

It scored 24 on Utah State - nothing big there.

Keep in mind Eastern Washington scored nearly 50 on Oregon.  Oregon's S&P defense rank is 91 so you don't get tons of pts for pounding a horrid defense.  Oregon's D is right up there with Indiana right now.

Putting 24 on Michigan prob got them better offensive data pts than 50 on Oregon.

Their other game was 97th defense Fresno State.

Until the Oregon game Utah also had one of the 15 lowest explosion rankings which made sense as their offense is generally a Stanford / UM type of offense with some spread concepts in it - not TCU or OSU.  Also keep in mind Wilson missed some time btw the UM and Oregon game.  30 is not a bad rank, it would make them #3 in offense right now in the Big 10!  I am actually more surprised on their defense rank then the offense rank which I find fair.

cheebablue

October 7th, 2015 at 9:24 PM ^

Thanks For The Info. Living In Ohio And Bleeding Blue. It's Always Nice To Have Statistical Talking Points, When The Nutz Start Chirping!

SorRy For The Caps. I Believe My Mobile Is Diseased.

UMForLife

October 7th, 2015 at 9:41 PM ^

Thank you for doing this. Purdue has a better S&P than Oregon? Wow. How far Oregon is going to fall. It is amusing that both teams had a final drive that they could have used to win the game again MSU.

alum96

October 7th, 2015 at 10:53 PM ^

There are 2 measures - offense and defense.  Someone posted a "combined" rating on the main board this week which I find useless. 

Purdue has a better statistical defense than Oregon right now.  Oregon still has the advantage on offense (#20).

The only P5 defenses worse than Oregon as of this week are Colorado, Indiana, Virginia, Washington State, rutgers, Baylor (!), Arizona (!!), Texas Tech, and Kansas.  So they are in the bottom 10 out of 60 P5 teams.

bronxblue

October 8th, 2015 at 12:21 PM ^

I'm kind of amazed Oregon's offense is top-20.  Putting the screw to Georgia St, Eastern Washington, and Colorado doesn't seem all that impressive, even if you assume that MSU's defense is better than it looks.

The one thing with any of these advanced stats this early in the year is how outsized a single game can have on the results.  Of course UNLV, BYU, OSU, and Maryland have played other opponents, but the latter three being held to around 100 yards each is going to depress their offensive rankings way more than, say, playing MSU's meh unit.

Still, good stuff.

alum96

October 8th, 2015 at 12:39 PM ^

Yep as you know it gets better as the year goes by - 30 slot swings like we saw with VATech and CMU wont happen in week 8.  Oregon still has scored a ton of pts vs everyone but Utah.  Granted bad competition and all.  In a backwards way their bad D is helping their O ranks because S&P+ doesnt count data that is happening in blowouts.  So if they were winning say 50-13 instead of 50-38 a lot of the data wouldnt count for them in the 2nd halves.