Some Hard Numbers on Research Growth Through B1G/CIC Expansion

Submitted by maizeonblueaction on February 23rd, 2013 at 7:38 PM

In a diary entry that got a lot of play last week, MosherJordan took a look at the research reasons for Big Ten expansion, specifically the CIC and if expansion could be an attempt to increase the B1G's share of the federal research dollars pie. I took a great interest in the topic, and I have decided to look at it in a few ways. As a caveat, I'm not a statistician, but I want to put out some data, and maybe more knowledgeable people can make more of this. First, here are all top-100 research universities in the US in pure rank order from 2009, with 1990 research dollar amounts in the middle, and percentage growth from 1990-2009 on the far right, and a national average at the bottom.

 

Johns Hopkins University 1,587,547 1,189,924 1.334158
Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor 636,216 357,971 1.777284
Univ. of Washington - Seattle 619,353 403,391 1.535366
Massachusetts Inst. of Tech. 532,618 463,815 1.148341
Univ. of California - San Diego 511,428 362,134 1.412262
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison 507,898 354,809 1.431469
University of Pennsylvania 499,498 265,314 1.882667
Columbia University 483,111 309,993 1.558458
Stanford University 477,507 507,472 0.940952
U. of California - LosAngeles 467,505 326,204 1.433168
U. of Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh 463,192 179,922 2.574404
Duke University 438,767 210,377 2.085622
U. of North Carolina - Chapel Hill 431,837 183,429 2.354246
Washington Univ. in St. Louis 414,045 209,794 1.973579
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities 390,602 285,276 1.369207
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park 386,635 238,554 1.620744
Harvard University 385,704 305,668 1.26184
Yale University 378,914 287,561 1.317682
Univ. of Southern California 375,024 245,411 1.528147
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus 339,820 156,470 2.17179
Vanderbilt University 336,405 132,406 2.540708
Georgia Inst. of Technology 322,452 188,138 1.713912
Case Western Reserve Univ. 313,044 139,881 2.237931
University of Texas -Austin 309,125 217,400 1.421918
California Inst. of Technology 305,682 179,678 1.701277
University of Chicago 301,159 191,084 1.576056
Northwestern University 300,619 123,352 2.437082
Univ. ofAlabama - Birmingham 300,130 147,758 2.031227
University of Rochester 295,963 209,566 1.412266
University of California - Davis 295,924 153,586 1.926764
Emory University 295,831 103,880 2.847815
U. of Ill. - Urbana-Champaign 288,013 232,426 1.23916
University ofArizona 287,889 184,325 1.561855
Univ. of California - Berkeley 262,069 261,287 1.002993
TexasA&M University 261,491 184,486 1.417403
Univ. of Colorado - Denver 256,007 92,357 2.771928
Boston University 255,178 119,933 2.127671
University of Iowa 252,336 156,804 1.609245
U. of Maryland - College Park 246,985 131,738 1.87482
Univ. of Colorado - Boulder 239,687 138,534 1.730167
Cornell University 238,022 224,206 1.061622
University of Florida 232,737 128,175 1.815775
Univ. of Cincinnati - Cincinnati 229,324 89,199 2.570926
University of Virginia 218,499 116,644 1.873213
Colorado State University 211,890 100,661 2.104986
University of Hawaii - Manoa 203,453 84,635 2.403887
New York University 202,535 160,196 1.264295
University of Illinois - Chicago 196,702 87,219 2.255265
University of Utah 192,354 123,579 1.556527
Univ. of South Florida - Tampa 190,949 60,465 3.158009
University of California - Irvine 177,098 104,128 1.700772
Purdue Univ. - West Lafayette 175,302 127,877 1.370864
University of Miami 172,000 135,177 1.272406
Carnegie Mellon University 170,260 128,048 1.329658
Michigan State University 164,198 115,493 1.421714
University at Buffalo 152,146 132,662 1.146869
Rutgers - State University of NJ 151,122 72,346 2.088878
VirginiaPolytechnic Inst.&St. U. 148,411 91,149 1.628224
University of Kentucky 145,483 58,741 2.476686
Wake Forest University 144,454 59,872 2.412714
Yeshiva University 137,108 129,071 1.062268
North Carolina State University 135,318 86,860 1.557886
Arizona State University 134,598 52,747 2.551766
Dartmouth College 134,113 59,779 2.24348
U. of New Mexico -Albuquerque 133,334 50,483 2.641166
Princeton University 128,876 102,278 1.260056
Georgetown University 119,925 71,598 1.674977
IndianaU.-PurdueU.-Indianapolis 119,060 68,027 1.750187
Univ. of Missouri - Columbia 118,998 48,446 2.456302
Oregon State University 118,252 100,264 1.179406
Florida State University 117,294 65,317 1.795765
Wayne State University 116,682 56,512 2.06473
U. of California - Santa Barbara 113,837 94,966 1.198713
Tulane University 109,269 56,200 1.944288
U. of South Carolina - Columbia 107,504 40,838 2.63245
Stony Brook University 107,396 110,911 0.968308
University of Georgia 106,932 87,013 1.22892
University ofAlaska - Fairbanks 105,885 63,272 1.673489
Mississippi State University 102,903 42,503 2.421076
Tufts University 102,330 75,956 1.347227
Virginia Commonwealth Univ. 97,433 82,534 1.18052
University atAlbany 96,910 28,758 3.369845
Iowa State University 96,483 67,531 1.428722
Washington State U. - Pullman 95,824 53,330 1.796812
Brown University 93,753 73,236 1.280149
University of Vermont 92,555 60,612 1.527008
Univ. of Tennessee - Knoxville 91,706 69,798 1.313877
George Washington University 88,949 53,197 1.672068
New MexicoSt. U.- Las Cruces 88,707 108,485 0.817689
University of Delaware 87,090 34,889 2.496202
Louisiana St. U. - Baton Rouge 86,546 46,468 1.862486
Utah State University 84,082 116,969 0.71884
University of Nebraska - Lincoln 83,702 45,002 1.859962
U. of Massachusetts -Amherst 80,163 53,582 1.496081
U. of New Hampshire - Durham 78,633 28,674 2.74231
Indiana Univ. - Bloomington 78,498 45,351 1.730899
Univ. of California - Santa Cruz 76,085 27,484 2.768338
Naval Postgraduate School 75,825 34,383 2.205305
Rockefeller University 73,906 72,976 1.012744
Univ. of Kansas - Lawrence   73,139 30,287 2.414864
 
    23,859,752
14,929,167 1.598197

As a fairly important point, all current and future B1G members are in the top 100 as of 2009, with IU being the lowest. Also, total dollar amounts drop off pretty fast outside of the top 50 or so. Now, here are those same numbers from just the B1G schools in that time:

 

Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor 636,216 357,971 1.777284
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison 507,898 354,809 1.431469
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities 390,602 285,276 1.369207
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park 386,635 238,554 1.620744
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus 339,820 156,470 2.17179
University of Chicago 301,159 191,084 1.576056
Northwestern University 300,619 123,352 2.437082
U. of Ill. - Urbana-Champaign 288,013 232,426 1.23916
University of Iowa 252,336 156,804 1.609245
Purdue Univ. - West Lafayette 175,302 127,877 1.370864
Michigan State University 164,198 115,493 1.421714
Indiana Univ. - Bloomington 78,498 45,351 1.730899
 
    3,821,296
2,385,467 1.601907

So, based on pure average, the B1G actually did a scoche better than the national growth average during that time in research dollars (the median number is somewhere around a 70% growth rate nationally, and 60% for just the B1G), but to some extent the fact that some of these universities actually had such large budgets to begin with could hurt their room for growth, with Albany(!) actually just about tripling their research, which is easier to do as it was small to begin with. Notice Hopkins didn't bump much percentagewise, as it had less room to go up. Here's the chart just for the top 25 research universities:

 

Johns Hopkins University 1,587,547 1,189,924 1.334158
Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor 636,216 357,971 1.777284
Univ. of Washington - Seattle 619,353 403,391 1.535366
Massachusetts Inst. of Tech. 532,618 463,815 1.148341
Univ. of California - San Diego 511,428 362,134 1.412262
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison 507,898 354,809 1.431469
University of Pennsylvania 499,498 265,314 1.882667
Columbia University 483,111 309,993 1.558458
Stanford University 477,507 507,472 0.940952
U. of California - LosAngeles 467,505 326,204 1.433168
U. of Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh 463,192 179,922 2.574404
Duke University 438,767 210,377 2.085622
U. of North Carolina - Chapel Hill 431,837 183,429 2.354246
Washington Univ. in St. Louis 414,045 209,794 1.973579
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities 390,602 285,276 1.369207
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park 386,635 238,554 1.620744
Harvard University 385,704 305,668 1.26184
Yale University 378,914 287,561 1.317682
Univ. of Southern California 375,024 245,411 1.528147
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus 339,820 156,470 2.17179
Vanderbilt University 336,405 132,406 2.540708
Georgia Inst. of Technology 322,452 188,138 1.713912
Case Western Reserve Univ. 313,044 139,881 2.237931
University of Texas -Austin 309,125 217,400 1.421918
California Inst. of Technology 305,682 179,678 1.701277
 
    11,913,929
7,700,992 1.547064

Now, the averages look a little better for the B1G, with 55% growth for the top 25, and about 60% for the B1G as a whole, and the B1G does the same on median here, with the previously stated 60% growth rate for the B1G, and only 55% nationally.

Expanded to the top 50, it looks like

 

Johns Hopkins University 1,587,547 1,189,924 1.334158
Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor 636,216 357,971 1.777284
Univ. of Washington - Seattle 619,353 403,391 1.535366
Massachusetts Inst. of Tech. 532,618 463,815 1.148341
Univ. of California - San Diego 511,428 362,134 1.412262
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison 507,898 354,809 1.431469
University of Pennsylvania 499,498 265,314 1.882667
Columbia University 483,111 309,993 1.558458
Stanford University 477,507 507,472 0.940952
U. of California - LosAngeles 467,505 326,204 1.433168
U. of Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh 463,192 179,922 2.574404
Duke University 438,767 210,377 2.085622
U. of North Carolina - Chapel Hill 431,837 183,429 2.354246
Washington Univ. in St. Louis 414,045 209,794 1.973579
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities 390,602 285,276 1.369207
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park 386,635 238,554 1.620744
Harvard University 385,704 305,668 1.26184
Yale University 378,914 287,561 1.317682
Univ. of Southern California 375,024 245,411 1.528147
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus 339,820 156,470 2.17179
Vanderbilt University 336,405 132,406 2.540708
Georgia Inst. of Technology 322,452 188,138 1.713912
Case Western Reserve Univ. 313,044 139,881 2.237931
University of Texas -Austin 309,125 217,400 1.421918
California Inst. of Technology 305,682 179,678 1.701277
University of Chicago 301,159 191,084 1.576056
Northwestern University 300,619 123,352 2.437082
Univ. ofAlabama - Birmingham 300,130 147,758 2.031227
University of Rochester 295,963 209,566 1.412266
University of California - Davis 295,924 153,586 1.926764
Emory University 295,831 103,880 2.847815
U. of Ill. - Urbana-Champaign 288,013 232,426 1.23916
University ofArizona 287,889 184,325 1.561855
Univ. of California - Berkeley 262,069 261,287 1.002993
TexasA&M University 261,491 184,486 1.417403
Univ. of Colorado - Denver 256,007 92,357 2.771928
Boston University 255,178 119,933 2.127671
University of Iowa 252,336 156,804 1.609245
U. of Maryland - College Park 246,985 131,738 1.87482
Univ. of Colorado - Boulder 239,687 138,534 1.730167
Cornell University 238,022 224,206 1.061622
University of Florida 232,737 128,175 1.815775
Univ. of Cincinnati - Cincinnati 229,324 89,199 2.570926
University of Virginia 218,499 116,644 1.873213
Colorado State University 211,890 100,661 2.104986
University of Hawaii - Manoa 203,453 84,635 2.403887
New York University 202,535 160,196 1.264295
University of Illinois - Chicago 196,702 87,219 2.255265
University of Utah 192,354 123,579 1.556527
Univ. of South Florida - Tampa 190,949 60,465 3.158009
 
    18,169,675
11,307,087 1.606928

70% national growth median, 60% for the B1G, and overall average almost exactly equal.

So, my conclusion right now is inconclusion. On pure average the B1G outperforms the national average in research growth during this time by an infinitesimal amount, but on median growth, not so much. Penn State, which would seem to have the most to gain from this arrangement, did not outgain the national median, though outgained the conference median, for what it's worth. So, maybe there is a new strategy that we might see in a few years to shuttle research dollars the CIC's way, but it's not apparent from the last 20 years of data.

 

EDIT: My lack of math skill was made very obvious, as in my original post, I simply averaged the percentage growth, which I went back and corrected.

Comments

grumbler

February 23rd, 2013 at 8:38 PM ^

Not sure where you are trying to go with this, but your overall growth numbers appear to be off.  The sum of the top 100 research uni dollars is 14,929,167 whatevers in 1990, and 23,859,752 whatevers in 2009.  That's a 59.8% jump.  Your 78% number averages the individual percentage increases rather than averaging the totals, and I'm not sure that is a meaningful number, given its skew towards very small programs getting relatively small-value increases.

Yeoman

February 24th, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^

That skew is magnified because we're looking at the top 100 list for the end of the period, so at the low end the list is biased toward schools showing recent growth. Look at the top 100 at the beginning of the period and I think you'll find that the larger schools held their own on average, growth-wise. The apparently larger growth of the smaller schools isn't because schools like Hopkins don't have room to grow--it's selection bias.

joeyb

February 24th, 2013 at 10:39 AM ^

B1G schools + non-SEC, non-PAC12 schools in contiguous or potentially contiguous states with above average athletic programs. Schools who have rumors flying about them have been bolded.

Johns Hopkins University 1,587,547 1,189,924 1.334158
Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor 636,216 357,971 1.777284
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison 507,898 354,809 1.431469
U. of Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh 463,192 179,922 2.574404
Duke University 438,767 210,377 2.085622
U. of North Carolina - Chapel Hill 431,837 183,429 2.354246
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities 390,602 285,276 1.369207
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park 386,635 238,554 1.620744
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus 339,820 156,470 2.17179
Georgia Inst. of Technology 322,452 188,138 1.713912
University of Chicago 301,159 191,084 1.576056
Northwestern University 300,619 123,352 2.437082
U. of Ill. - Urbana-Champaign 288,013 232,426 1.23916
University of Iowa 252,336 156,804 1.609245
U. of Maryland - College Park 246,985 131,738 1.87482
Univ. of Cincinnati - Cincinnati 229,324 89,199 2.570926
University of Virginia 218,499 116,644 1.873213
Univ. of South Florida - Tampa 190,949 60,465 3.158009
Purdue Univ. - West Lafayette 175,302 127,877 1.370864
University of Miami 172,000 135,177 1.272406
Michigan State University 164,198 115,493 1.421714
Rutgers - State University of NJ 151,122 72,346 2.088878
VirginiaPolytechnic Inst.&St. U. 148,411 91,149 1.628224
Wake Forest University 144,454 59,872 2.412714
North Carolina State University 135,318 86,860 1.557886
Florida State University 117,294 65,317 1.795765
Iowa State University 96,483 67,531 1.428722
Indiana Univ. - Bloomington 78,498 45,351 1.730899
Univ. of Kansas - Lawrence   73,139 30,287 2.414864

 

Notable schools not on this list: Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, every school from the Big12 aside from Texas, Kansas, and Iowa State.

Nothsa

February 24th, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^

and... I just don't get this aspect of the B1G expansion.

It's true that conference schools are in the CIC. So is Chicago, and UW-Milwaukee is a guest member. It's a prestigious group of research universities. There are certain rather modest advantages to collaborating with scholars at those other universities. We share libraries (though that is not such a big deal in the Internet age). A plus for grad students is they can take courses at other CIC institutions. As far as I know, not many do this - one grad from my department has done so in the dozen years I've been here.

I can see that CIC membership could be perceived as an advantage by a university thinking of joining the athletic conference. Administrators probably get warm fuzzies thinking of the annual trips, lengthy hand-waving presentations, banquets, paid golf outings, and whatever else it is that administrators do at top-level meetings.

That said, I can't think of a single colleague who ever pointed to CIC membership as a factor in why they decided to work with anyone at another school. It's no easier or harder to obtain a big Federal research grant with a team comprised only of CIC members. It was just as likely or unlikely that I would join forces with a professor at Rutgers or Maryland before the athletic merger.

The athletic dollars is what is driving this bus. Academic research collaboration may be correlated, but is certainly not causal. Just look at Nebraska.

Profwoot

February 24th, 2013 at 2:03 PM ^

I would agree with this. I don't really see any practical advantage to the CIC anymore. Penn State has benefited greatly from the prestige of being in the Big 10, but that's not due to anything practical. The Big 10 is just a very nice academic brand. The only non-athletic thing I worry about regarding expansion is the dilution of that brand via adding less-respectable institutions.

Feat of Clay

February 25th, 2013 at 11:38 AM ^

I take your point.

That said, I think some of the CIC's value goes underappreciated.  The CIC was a founding HathiTrust member, and the ongoing library collaborations are a big deal in terms of increasing access to scholarly materials while saving institutions $$.

I always heard that U-M gave out more CIC benefits than it got, in terms of foreign language study, but I am not sure what the numbers actually are.