Some Hard Numbers on Research Growth Through B1G/CIC Expansion
In a diary entry that got a lot of play last week, MosherJordan took a look at the research reasons for Big Ten expansion, specifically the CIC and if expansion could be an attempt to increase the B1G's share of the federal research dollars pie. I took a great interest in the topic, and I have decided to look at it in a few ways. As a caveat, I'm not a statistician, but I want to put out some data, and maybe more knowledgeable people can make more of this. First, here are all top-100 research universities in the US in pure rank order from 2009, with 1990 research dollar amounts in the middle, and percentage growth from 1990-2009 on the far right, and a national average at the bottom.
Johns Hopkins University | 1,587,547 | 1,189,924 | 1.334158 | |||
Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor | 636,216 | 357,971 | 1.777284 | |||
Univ. of Washington - Seattle | 619,353 | 403,391 | 1.535366 | |||
Massachusetts Inst. of Tech. | 532,618 | 463,815 | 1.148341 | |||
Univ. of California - San Diego | 511,428 | 362,134 | 1.412262 | |||
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison | 507,898 | 354,809 | 1.431469 | |||
University of Pennsylvania | 499,498 | 265,314 | 1.882667 | |||
Columbia University | 483,111 | 309,993 | 1.558458 | |||
Stanford University | 477,507 | 507,472 | 0.940952 | |||
U. of California - LosAngeles | 467,505 | 326,204 | 1.433168 | |||
U. of Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh | 463,192 | 179,922 | 2.574404 | |||
Duke University | 438,767 | 210,377 | 2.085622 | |||
U. of North Carolina - Chapel Hill | 431,837 | 183,429 | 2.354246 | |||
Washington Univ. in St. Louis | 414,045 | 209,794 | 1.973579 | |||
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities | 390,602 | 285,276 | 1.369207 | |||
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park | 386,635 | 238,554 | 1.620744 | |||
Harvard University | 385,704 | 305,668 | 1.26184 | |||
Yale University | 378,914 | 287,561 | 1.317682 | |||
Univ. of Southern California | 375,024 | 245,411 | 1.528147 | |||
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus | 339,820 | 156,470 | 2.17179 | |||
Vanderbilt University | 336,405 | 132,406 | 2.540708 | |||
Georgia Inst. of Technology | 322,452 | 188,138 | 1.713912 | |||
Case Western Reserve Univ. | 313,044 | 139,881 | 2.237931 | |||
University of Texas -Austin | 309,125 | 217,400 | 1.421918 | |||
California Inst. of Technology | 305,682 | 179,678 | 1.701277 | |||
University of Chicago | 301,159 | 191,084 | 1.576056 | |||
Northwestern University | 300,619 | 123,352 | 2.437082 | |||
Univ. ofAlabama - Birmingham | 300,130 | 147,758 | 2.031227 | |||
University of Rochester | 295,963 | 209,566 | 1.412266 | |||
University of California - Davis | 295,924 | 153,586 | 1.926764 | |||
Emory University | 295,831 | 103,880 | 2.847815 | |||
U. of Ill. - Urbana-Champaign | 288,013 | 232,426 | 1.23916 | |||
University ofArizona | 287,889 | 184,325 | 1.561855 | |||
Univ. of California - Berkeley | 262,069 | 261,287 | 1.002993 | |||
TexasA&M University | 261,491 | 184,486 | 1.417403 | |||
Univ. of Colorado - Denver | 256,007 | 92,357 | 2.771928 | |||
Boston University | 255,178 | 119,933 | 2.127671 | |||
University of Iowa | 252,336 | 156,804 | 1.609245 | |||
U. of Maryland - College Park | 246,985 | 131,738 | 1.87482 | |||
Univ. of Colorado - Boulder | 239,687 | 138,534 | 1.730167 | |||
Cornell University | 238,022 | 224,206 | 1.061622 | |||
University of Florida | 232,737 | 128,175 | 1.815775 | |||
Univ. of Cincinnati - Cincinnati | 229,324 | 89,199 | 2.570926 | |||
University of Virginia | 218,499 | 116,644 | 1.873213 | |||
Colorado State University | 211,890 | 100,661 | 2.104986 | |||
University of Hawaii - Manoa | 203,453 | 84,635 | 2.403887 | |||
New York University | 202,535 | 160,196 | 1.264295 | |||
University of Illinois - Chicago | 196,702 | 87,219 | 2.255265 | |||
University of Utah | 192,354 | 123,579 | 1.556527 | |||
Univ. of South Florida - Tampa | 190,949 | 60,465 | 3.158009 | |||
University of California - Irvine | 177,098 | 104,128 | 1.700772 | |||
Purdue Univ. - West Lafayette | 175,302 | 127,877 | 1.370864 | |||
University of Miami | 172,000 | 135,177 | 1.272406 | |||
Carnegie Mellon University | 170,260 | 128,048 | 1.329658 | |||
Michigan State University | 164,198 | 115,493 | 1.421714 | |||
University at Buffalo | 152,146 | 132,662 | 1.146869 | |||
Rutgers - State University of NJ | 151,122 | 72,346 | 2.088878 | |||
VirginiaPolytechnic Inst.&St. U. | 148,411 | 91,149 | 1.628224 | |||
University of Kentucky | 145,483 | 58,741 | 2.476686 | |||
Wake Forest University | 144,454 | 59,872 | 2.412714 | |||
Yeshiva University | 137,108 | 129,071 | 1.062268 | |||
North Carolina State University | 135,318 | 86,860 | 1.557886 | |||
Arizona State University | 134,598 | 52,747 | 2.551766 | |||
Dartmouth College | 134,113 | 59,779 | 2.24348 | |||
U. of New Mexico -Albuquerque | 133,334 | 50,483 | 2.641166 | |||
Princeton University | 128,876 | 102,278 | 1.260056 | |||
Georgetown University | 119,925 | 71,598 | 1.674977 | |||
IndianaU.-PurdueU.-Indianapolis | 119,060 | 68,027 | 1.750187 | |||
Univ. of Missouri - Columbia | 118,998 | 48,446 | 2.456302 | |||
Oregon State University | 118,252 | 100,264 | 1.179406 | |||
Florida State University | 117,294 | 65,317 | 1.795765 | |||
Wayne State University | 116,682 | 56,512 | 2.06473 | |||
U. of California - Santa Barbara | 113,837 | 94,966 | 1.198713 | |||
Tulane University | 109,269 | 56,200 | 1.944288 | |||
U. of South Carolina - Columbia | 107,504 | 40,838 | 2.63245 | |||
Stony Brook University | 107,396 | 110,911 | 0.968308 | |||
University of Georgia | 106,932 | 87,013 | 1.22892 | |||
University ofAlaska - Fairbanks | 105,885 | 63,272 | 1.673489 | |||
Mississippi State University | 102,903 | 42,503 | 2.421076 | |||
Tufts University | 102,330 | 75,956 | 1.347227 | |||
Virginia Commonwealth Univ. | 97,433 | 82,534 | 1.18052 | |||
University atAlbany | 96,910 | 28,758 | 3.369845 | |||
Iowa State University | 96,483 | 67,531 | 1.428722 | |||
Washington State U. - Pullman | 95,824 | 53,330 | 1.796812 | |||
Brown University | 93,753 | 73,236 | 1.280149 | |||
University of Vermont | 92,555 | 60,612 | 1.527008 | |||
Univ. of Tennessee - Knoxville | 91,706 | 69,798 | 1.313877 | |||
George Washington University | 88,949 | 53,197 | 1.672068 | |||
New MexicoSt. U.- Las Cruces | 88,707 | 108,485 | 0.817689 | |||
University of Delaware | 87,090 | 34,889 | 2.496202 | |||
Louisiana St. U. - Baton Rouge | 86,546 | 46,468 | 1.862486 | |||
Utah State University | 84,082 | 116,969 | 0.71884 | |||
University of Nebraska - Lincoln | 83,702 | 45,002 | 1.859962 | |||
U. of Massachusetts -Amherst | 80,163 | 53,582 | 1.496081 | |||
U. of New Hampshire - Durham | 78,633 | 28,674 | 2.74231 | |||
Indiana Univ. - Bloomington | 78,498 | 45,351 | 1.730899 | |||
Univ. of California - Santa Cruz | 76,085 | 27,484 | 2.768338 | |||
Naval Postgraduate School | 75,825 | 34,383 | 2.205305 | |||
Rockefeller University | 73,906 | 72,976 | 1.012744 | |||
Univ. of Kansas - Lawrence | 73,139 | 30,287 | 2.414864 | |||
|
14,929,167 | 1.598197 |
As a fairly important point, all current and future B1G members are in the top 100 as of 2009, with IU being the lowest. Also, total dollar amounts drop off pretty fast outside of the top 50 or so. Now, here are those same numbers from just the B1G schools in that time:
Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor | 636,216 | 357,971 | 1.777284 | |||
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison | 507,898 | 354,809 | 1.431469 | |||
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities | 390,602 | 285,276 | 1.369207 | |||
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park | 386,635 | 238,554 | 1.620744 | |||
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus | 339,820 | 156,470 | 2.17179 | |||
University of Chicago | 301,159 | 191,084 | 1.576056 | |||
Northwestern University | 300,619 | 123,352 | 2.437082 | |||
U. of Ill. - Urbana-Champaign | 288,013 | 232,426 | 1.23916 | |||
University of Iowa | 252,336 | 156,804 | 1.609245 | |||
Purdue Univ. - West Lafayette | 175,302 | 127,877 | 1.370864 | |||
Michigan State University | 164,198 | 115,493 | 1.421714 | |||
Indiana Univ. - Bloomington | 78,498 | 45,351 | 1.730899 | |||
|
2,385,467 | 1.601907 |
So, based on pure average, the B1G actually did a scoche better than the national growth average during that time in research dollars (the median number is somewhere around a 70% growth rate nationally, and 60% for just the B1G), but to some extent the fact that some of these universities actually had such large budgets to begin with could hurt their room for growth, with Albany(!) actually just about tripling their research, which is easier to do as it was small to begin with. Notice Hopkins didn't bump much percentagewise, as it had less room to go up. Here's the chart just for the top 25 research universities:
Johns Hopkins University | 1,587,547 | 1,189,924 | 1.334158 | |||
Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor | 636,216 | 357,971 | 1.777284 | |||
Univ. of Washington - Seattle | 619,353 | 403,391 | 1.535366 | |||
Massachusetts Inst. of Tech. | 532,618 | 463,815 | 1.148341 | |||
Univ. of California - San Diego | 511,428 | 362,134 | 1.412262 | |||
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison | 507,898 | 354,809 | 1.431469 | |||
University of Pennsylvania | 499,498 | 265,314 | 1.882667 | |||
Columbia University | 483,111 | 309,993 | 1.558458 | |||
Stanford University | 477,507 | 507,472 | 0.940952 | |||
U. of California - LosAngeles | 467,505 | 326,204 | 1.433168 | |||
U. of Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh | 463,192 | 179,922 | 2.574404 | |||
Duke University | 438,767 | 210,377 | 2.085622 | |||
U. of North Carolina - Chapel Hill | 431,837 | 183,429 | 2.354246 | |||
Washington Univ. in St. Louis | 414,045 | 209,794 | 1.973579 | |||
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities | 390,602 | 285,276 | 1.369207 | |||
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park | 386,635 | 238,554 | 1.620744 | |||
Harvard University | 385,704 | 305,668 | 1.26184 | |||
Yale University | 378,914 | 287,561 | 1.317682 | |||
Univ. of Southern California | 375,024 | 245,411 | 1.528147 | |||
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus | 339,820 | 156,470 | 2.17179 | |||
Vanderbilt University | 336,405 | 132,406 | 2.540708 | |||
Georgia Inst. of Technology | 322,452 | 188,138 | 1.713912 | |||
Case Western Reserve Univ. | 313,044 | 139,881 | 2.237931 | |||
University of Texas -Austin | 309,125 | 217,400 | 1.421918 | |||
California Inst. of Technology | 305,682 | 179,678 | 1.701277 | |||
|
7,700,992 | 1.547064 |
Now, the averages look a little better for the B1G, with 55% growth for the top 25, and about 60% for the B1G as a whole, and the B1G does the same on median here, with the previously stated 60% growth rate for the B1G, and only 55% nationally.
Expanded to the top 50, it looks like
Johns Hopkins University | 1,587,547 | 1,189,924 | 1.334158 | |||
Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor | 636,216 | 357,971 | 1.777284 | |||
Univ. of Washington - Seattle | 619,353 | 403,391 | 1.535366 | |||
Massachusetts Inst. of Tech. | 532,618 | 463,815 | 1.148341 | |||
Univ. of California - San Diego | 511,428 | 362,134 | 1.412262 | |||
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison | 507,898 | 354,809 | 1.431469 | |||
University of Pennsylvania | 499,498 | 265,314 | 1.882667 | |||
Columbia University | 483,111 | 309,993 | 1.558458 | |||
Stanford University | 477,507 | 507,472 | 0.940952 | |||
U. of California - LosAngeles | 467,505 | 326,204 | 1.433168 | |||
U. of Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh | 463,192 | 179,922 | 2.574404 | |||
Duke University | 438,767 | 210,377 | 2.085622 | |||
U. of North Carolina - Chapel Hill | 431,837 | 183,429 | 2.354246 | |||
Washington Univ. in St. Louis | 414,045 | 209,794 | 1.973579 | |||
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities | 390,602 | 285,276 | 1.369207 | |||
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park | 386,635 | 238,554 | 1.620744 | |||
Harvard University | 385,704 | 305,668 | 1.26184 | |||
Yale University | 378,914 | 287,561 | 1.317682 | |||
Univ. of Southern California | 375,024 | 245,411 | 1.528147 | |||
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus | 339,820 | 156,470 | 2.17179 | |||
Vanderbilt University | 336,405 | 132,406 | 2.540708 | |||
Georgia Inst. of Technology | 322,452 | 188,138 | 1.713912 | |||
Case Western Reserve Univ. | 313,044 | 139,881 | 2.237931 | |||
University of Texas -Austin | 309,125 | 217,400 | 1.421918 | |||
California Inst. of Technology | 305,682 | 179,678 | 1.701277 | |||
University of Chicago | 301,159 | 191,084 | 1.576056 | |||
Northwestern University | 300,619 | 123,352 | 2.437082 | |||
Univ. ofAlabama - Birmingham | 300,130 | 147,758 | 2.031227 | |||
University of Rochester | 295,963 | 209,566 | 1.412266 | |||
University of California - Davis | 295,924 | 153,586 | 1.926764 | |||
Emory University | 295,831 | 103,880 | 2.847815 | |||
U. of Ill. - Urbana-Champaign | 288,013 | 232,426 | 1.23916 | |||
University ofArizona | 287,889 | 184,325 | 1.561855 | |||
Univ. of California - Berkeley | 262,069 | 261,287 | 1.002993 | |||
TexasA&M University | 261,491 | 184,486 | 1.417403 | |||
Univ. of Colorado - Denver | 256,007 | 92,357 | 2.771928 | |||
Boston University | 255,178 | 119,933 | 2.127671 | |||
University of Iowa | 252,336 | 156,804 | 1.609245 | |||
U. of Maryland - College Park | 246,985 | 131,738 | 1.87482 | |||
Univ. of Colorado - Boulder | 239,687 | 138,534 | 1.730167 | |||
Cornell University | 238,022 | 224,206 | 1.061622 | |||
University of Florida | 232,737 | 128,175 | 1.815775 | |||
Univ. of Cincinnati - Cincinnati | 229,324 | 89,199 | 2.570926 | |||
University of Virginia | 218,499 | 116,644 | 1.873213 | |||
Colorado State University | 211,890 | 100,661 | 2.104986 | |||
University of Hawaii - Manoa | 203,453 | 84,635 | 2.403887 | |||
New York University | 202,535 | 160,196 | 1.264295 | |||
University of Illinois - Chicago | 196,702 | 87,219 | 2.255265 | |||
University of Utah | 192,354 | 123,579 | 1.556527 | |||
Univ. of South Florida - Tampa | 190,949 | 60,465 | 3.158009 | |||
|
11,307,087 | 1.606928 |
70% national growth median, 60% for the B1G, and overall average almost exactly equal.
So, my conclusion right now is inconclusion. On pure average the B1G outperforms the national average in research growth during this time by an infinitesimal amount, but on median growth, not so much. Penn State, which would seem to have the most to gain from this arrangement, did not outgain the national median, though outgained the conference median, for what it's worth. So, maybe there is a new strategy that we might see in a few years to shuttle research dollars the CIC's way, but it's not apparent from the last 20 years of data.
EDIT: My lack of math skill was made very obvious, as in my original post, I simply averaged the percentage growth, which I went back and corrected.
February 23rd, 2013 at 8:38 PM ^
Not sure where you are trying to go with this, but your overall growth numbers appear to be off. The sum of the top 100 research uni dollars is 14,929,167 whatevers in 1990, and 23,859,752 whatevers in 2009. That's a 59.8% jump. Your 78% number averages the individual percentage increases rather than averaging the totals, and I'm not sure that is a meaningful number, given its skew towards very small programs getting relatively small-value increases.
February 24th, 2013 at 10:15 AM ^
That skew is magnified because we're looking at the top 100 list for the end of the period, so at the low end the list is biased toward schools showing recent growth. Look at the top 100 at the beginning of the period and I think you'll find that the larger schools held their own on average, growth-wise. The apparently larger growth of the smaller schools isn't because schools like Hopkins don't have room to grow--it's selection bias.
February 24th, 2013 at 10:39 AM ^
B1G schools + non-SEC, non-PAC12 schools in contiguous or potentially contiguous states with above average athletic programs. Schools who have rumors flying about them have been bolded.
Johns Hopkins University | 1,587,547 | 1,189,924 | 1.334158 |
Univ. of Michigan -AnnArbor | 636,216 | 357,971 | 1.777284 |
Univ. of Wisconsin - Madison | 507,898 | 354,809 | 1.431469 |
U. of Pittsburgh - Pittsburgh | 463,192 | 179,922 | 2.574404 |
Duke University | 438,767 | 210,377 | 2.085622 |
U. of North Carolina - Chapel Hill | 431,837 | 183,429 | 2.354246 |
U. of Minnesota - Twin Cities | 390,602 | 285,276 | 1.369207 |
Penn. St. Univ. - Univ. Park | 386,635 | 238,554 | 1.620744 |
Ohio State Univ. - Columbus | 339,820 | 156,470 | 2.17179 |
Georgia Inst. of Technology | 322,452 | 188,138 | 1.713912 |
University of Chicago | 301,159 | 191,084 | 1.576056 |
Northwestern University | 300,619 | 123,352 | 2.437082 |
U. of Ill. - Urbana-Champaign | 288,013 | 232,426 | 1.23916 |
University of Iowa | 252,336 | 156,804 | 1.609245 |
U. of Maryland - College Park | 246,985 | 131,738 | 1.87482 |
Univ. of Cincinnati - Cincinnati | 229,324 | 89,199 | 2.570926 |
University of Virginia | 218,499 | 116,644 | 1.873213 |
Univ. of South Florida - Tampa | 190,949 | 60,465 | 3.158009 |
Purdue Univ. - West Lafayette | 175,302 | 127,877 | 1.370864 |
University of Miami | 172,000 | 135,177 | 1.272406 |
Michigan State University | 164,198 | 115,493 | 1.421714 |
Rutgers - State University of NJ | 151,122 | 72,346 | 2.088878 |
VirginiaPolytechnic Inst.&St. U. | 148,411 | 91,149 | 1.628224 |
Wake Forest University | 144,454 | 59,872 | 2.412714 |
North Carolina State University | 135,318 | 86,860 | 1.557886 |
Florida State University | 117,294 | 65,317 | 1.795765 |
Iowa State University | 96,483 | 67,531 | 1.428722 |
Indiana Univ. - Bloomington | 78,498 | 45,351 | 1.730899 |
Univ. of Kansas - Lawrence | 73,139 | 30,287 | 2.414864 |
Notable schools not on this list: Syracuse, Boston College, Notre Dame, every school from the Big12 aside from Texas, Kansas, and Iowa State.
February 24th, 2013 at 1:04 PM ^
and... I just don't get this aspect of the B1G expansion.
It's true that conference schools are in the CIC. So is Chicago, and UW-Milwaukee is a guest member. It's a prestigious group of research universities. There are certain rather modest advantages to collaborating with scholars at those other universities. We share libraries (though that is not such a big deal in the Internet age). A plus for grad students is they can take courses at other CIC institutions. As far as I know, not many do this - one grad from my department has done so in the dozen years I've been here.
I can see that CIC membership could be perceived as an advantage by a university thinking of joining the athletic conference. Administrators probably get warm fuzzies thinking of the annual trips, lengthy hand-waving presentations, banquets, paid golf outings, and whatever else it is that administrators do at top-level meetings.
That said, I can't think of a single colleague who ever pointed to CIC membership as a factor in why they decided to work with anyone at another school. It's no easier or harder to obtain a big Federal research grant with a team comprised only of CIC members. It was just as likely or unlikely that I would join forces with a professor at Rutgers or Maryland before the athletic merger.
The athletic dollars is what is driving this bus. Academic research collaboration may be correlated, but is certainly not causal. Just look at Nebraska.
February 24th, 2013 at 2:03 PM ^
I would agree with this. I don't really see any practical advantage to the CIC anymore. Penn State has benefited greatly from the prestige of being in the Big 10, but that's not due to anything practical. The Big 10 is just a very nice academic brand. The only non-athletic thing I worry about regarding expansion is the dilution of that brand via adding less-respectable institutions.
February 25th, 2013 at 11:38 AM ^
I take your point.
That said, I think some of the CIC's value goes underappreciated. The CIC was a founding HathiTrust member, and the ongoing library collaborations are a big deal in terms of increasing access to scholarly materials while saving institutions $$.
I always heard that U-M gave out more CIC benefits than it got, in terms of foreign language study, but I am not sure what the numbers actually are.
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