Semi-Objective CFP Rankings System: 2016 Week 11 Results

Submitted by The Maizer on November 15th, 2016 at 9:22 AM

This is the week 11 update of college football team rankings produced by a semi-objective model as described previously here. The model was inspired by Seth's post that proposed a point system to determine bowl eligibility. These rankings aim to be a relatively objective starting point from which to apply considerations such as the eye test, margin of victory, and head-to-head results.

This week, I've made some adjustments based on feedback from last week's post:

  • Notre Dame and BYU are now considered P5 teams.
  • Ties in rankings are broken by head-to-head results, winning percentage, and opponent winning percentage, in that order.
  • Corrected a few mistakes in game results.
  • Implemented an averaging algorithm to be applied if a system does not converge.

The Rules

  • +3 points for a conference championship.
  • +4 points for a win over a top 10 team.
  • +3 points for a win over a top 25 team (not in top 10).
  • +2 points for a win over a winning P5 team (not in the top 25).
  • +1 point for a win over a winning G5 or a losing P5 team.
  • +0 points for a win over a losing G5 or any FCS team.
  • -1 point for a loss to a top 10 team.
  • -2 points for a loss to a top 25 team (not in top 10).
  • -3 points for a loss to a winning P5 team (not in ttop 25).
  • -4 points for a loss to a losing P5 or any G5/FCS team.

Week 11 Results

Rank Team Points
1 'Alabama' 18
2 'Ohio State' 17
3 'Clemson' 15
4 'Michigan' 13
5 'Washington' 10
6 'Wisconsin' 10
7 'Louisville' 9
8 'Penn State' 9
9 'West Virginia' 8
10 'Nebraska' 8
11 'USC' 6
12 'Colorado' 5
13 'Oklahoma' 5
14 'Oklahoma State' 5
15 'Stanford' 5
16 'Tennessee' 5
17 'Western Michigan' 4
18 'Washington State' 4
19 'Utah' 4
20 'Boise State' 3
21 'Florida' 3
22 'Florida State' 3
23 'Texas A&M' 2
24 'Auburn' 2
25 'Troy' 1
26 'North Carolina' 1
27 'LSU' 1
28 'Iowa' 0
29 'Minnesota' 0
30 'Pittsburgh' 0
31 'Virginia Tech' -1
32 'Arkansas' -1
33 'Georgia' -2
34 'Northwestern' -2
35 'South Florida' -3
36 'San Diego State' -3
37 'Houston' -3
38 'Navy' -3
39 'Baylor' -3
40 'Wyoming' -4
41 'Kansas State' -4
42 'BYU' -5
43 'Toledo' -5
44 'Appalachian State' -5
45 'Georgia Tech' -5
46 'Ole Miss' -5
47 'Wake Forest' -6
48 'Miami (FL)' -6
49 'Indiana' -6
50 'Maryland' -6
51 'TCU' -6
52 'Western Kentucky' -7
53 'Temple' -7
54 'Kentucky' -7
55 'NC State' -7
56 'Tulsa' -8
57 'New Mexico' -8
58 'Texas' -8
59 'Ohio' -8
60 'Idaho' -9
61 'South Carolina' -9
62 'Arizona State' -10
63 'Lousiana Tech' -10
64 'UCLA' -10
65 'Air Force' -11
66 'California' -11
67 'Texas Tech' -11
68 'Mississippi State' -11
69 'Old Dominion' -12
70 'Eastern Michigan' -12
71 'Oregon' -12
72 'UCF' -13
73 'Vanderbilt' -13
74 'Boston College' -13
75 'Illinois' -13
76 'Memphis' -14
77 'Colorado State' -14
78 'Arkansas State' -14
79 'Middle Tennessee' -14
80 'Syracuse' -14
81 'Duke' -14
82 'Central Michigan' -15
83 'Southern Miss' -15
84 'Army' -16
85 'South Alabama' -16
86 'SMU' -17
87 'Missouri' -17
88 'Oregon State' -17
89 'Michigan State' -17
90 'Notre Dame' -18
91 'Louisiana-Lafayette' -18
92 'Purdue' -18
93 'Arizona' -18
94 'UTSA' -19
95 'Akron' -19
96 'Rutgers' -19
97 'Louisiana-Monroe' -20
98 'Kent State' -20
99 'Georgia Southern' -21
100 'Charlotte' -21
100 'Hawaii' -21
101 'Ball State' -21
103 'Cincinnati' -22
104 'Miami (OH)' -22
105 'North Texas' -22
106 'Utah State' -22
107 'New Mexico State' -22
108 'Iowa State' -22
109 'UNLV' -23
110 'Marshall' -23
111 'San Jose State' -24
112 'Virginia' -24
113 'East Carolina' -25
114 'Georgia State' -26
115 'Northern Illinois' -26
116 'Florida Atlantic' -26
117 'Texas State' -26
118 'FIU' -27
119 'Tulane' -27
120 'Connecticut' -27
121 'UTEP' -27
122 'Massachusetts' -27
123 'Kansas' -27
124 'Nevada' -28
125 'Bowling Green' -29
126 'Rice' -31
127 'Buffalo' -32
128 'Fresno State' -32

 

Comments

DrMantisToboggan

November 15th, 2016 at 9:29 AM ^

I like this system you have. I think tonight's rankings will end up being:

1. Alabama

2. OSU

3. Louisville

4. Michigan

5. Clemson

6. Washington

7. Wisconsin

8. Penn State

9. West Virginia

10. Colorado

 

 

ESNY

November 15th, 2016 at 2:13 PM ^

I really have a hard time believing Louisville will be ranked 3.  They have a whooping two wins against over .500 teams.  I get the whole close loss against a top team but still believe you should be rewarded more for beating good teams than by losing to them.  

The OPs rankings seem about right to me.  Not only have Clemson beaten Louisville (and gotten at top 10 win by doing so), they also have 2 other top 25 wins.  The strength of those wins should def. more than offset the worse loss.  I think Michigan is even more to the extreme as their wins are better than clemson and the loss isn't as bad (at least we were on the road).

Wisconsin is an interesting case compared to Louisville.  One additional loss but to another top 5 team.  They do have the LSU and Neb wins although they are in the bottom part of the rankings 

 

MGoCombs

November 15th, 2016 at 1:01 PM ^

Thanks for this. I think it helps reframe the way people think about ranking teams. We for some reason live in a world where ranking bodies care more about the quality of losses than the quality of wins.

For instance, it's almost certain that Louisville is in this week and I just really don't understand it.  They have one good win. Granted, it was an absolute destruction of FSU, but still, that's about all they have to go on, and then everyone will justify their "good loss."

Is 1 big win over an overrated opponent (FSU) + 1 loss to a great/excellent opponent > 3 wins over great/underrated opponents + 1 loss to a bad/mediocre opoonent? I don't think so, but the committee almost certainly will, especially given how they treated A&M. It doesn't matter who you beat as long as you lose to good teams. Craziness.

doggdetroit

November 15th, 2016 at 1:44 PM ^

I do my own rankings almost exactly the way you do them. However I only rank teams that end up with positive points  Here is my latest set:

1) Alabama
2) Ohio State
3) Clemson
4) Michigan
5) Wisconsin
6) USC
7) Louisville
7) Penn State
9) Washington

*Louisville and Penn State finished with the same points, for now they are tied

*While these rankings are meaningless in the grand scheme of things, they do give you an idea of how the committee views certain teams. For example: Louisville. They only have one notable win and unless Clemson loses to Wake Forest, they will finish with only one notable win. They are pretty much screwed save for further chaos.

*Last year, my final four was:

1)Clemson
2) Michigan State
3) Alabama
4) Oklahoma

 

Gulo Gulo Luscus

November 15th, 2016 at 3:47 PM ^

Are the wins over top 10/25 based on ranking at time of the game or as of today? For example, do we get +4 for the win over PSU because they are top 10 now? Or was that worth less because they weren't at the time?

The Maizer

November 15th, 2016 at 4:01 PM ^

It is based on the ranking now, not when they played. Michigan gets +4 for beating a top 10 PSU team. Further, this system refers to its own rankings to determine top 10 and top 25 (and then iteratively solves to convergence); therefore, using a ranking at the time they played would not work well since in the early season, this system would be wonky because teams have played so few games to earn points.