Semi-Objective CFP Ranking System: 2017 Week 10

Submitted by The Maizer on November 8th, 2017 at 3:23 PM

The last couple of years I've posted this semi-objective ranking model and haven't this year yet since it's not as fun for a Michigan fan. However, the discussion about the CFP rankings made me curious about how they compare to the model.

This is is the week 10 college football team rankings produced by a semi-objective model as described previously here. The model was inspired by Seth's post that proposed a point system to determine bowl eligibility. These rankings aim to be a relatively objective starting point from which to apply considerations such as the eye test, margin of victory, and head-to-head results.


The Rules

  • +3 points for a conference championship.
  • +4 points for a win over a top 10 team.
  • +3 points for a win over a top 25 team (not in top 10).
  • +2 points for a win over a winning P5 team (not in the top 25).
  • +1 point for a win over a winning G5 or a losing P5 team.
  • +0 points for a win over a losing G5 or any FCS team.
  • -1 point for a loss to a top 10 team.
  • -2 points for a loss to a top 25 team (not in top 10).
  • -3 points for a loss to a winning P5 team (not in top 25).
  • -4 points for a loss to a losing P5 or any G5/FCS team.

Top 10 and top 25 status are determined by this ranking system and the model is solved iteratively until it converges. In scenarios where oscillatory states lead to a failure in convergence, the average points for oscillatory states are used.


 

Rank Team Points
1 'Notre Dame' 15
2 'Georgia' 14
3 'Clemson' 13
4 'Alabama' 11
5 'Wisconsin' 11
6 'Michigan State' 10
7 'Miami (FL)' 10
8 'USC' 10
9 'Penn State' 10
10 'TCU' 9
11 'Oklahoma' 8.5
12 'UCF' 7
13 'Washington' 7
14 'Washington State' 6
15 'Iowa' 5.5
16 'Ohio State' 5
17 'Virginia Tech' 4.5
18 'Auburn' 4
19 'Mississippi State' 4
20 'Oklahoma State' 3.5
21 'Michigan' 3
22 'Northwestern' 3
23 'Iowa State' 1.5
24 'Memphis' 1
25 'NC State' 1
26 'Stanford' 1
27 'West Virginia' 0.5
28 'Boise State' 0
29 'LSU' 0
30 'South Carolina' 0
31 'Boston College' 0
32 'Arizona' 0
33 'Toledo' -2
34 'San Diego State' -3
35 'South Florida' -3
36 'Arizona State' -3
37 'Wake Forest' -3
38 'Troy' -4
39 'FIU' -4
40 'Texas A&M' -4
41 'Texas' -4.5
42 'SMU' -5
43 'Kentucky' -5
44 'Fresno State' -5
45 'Georgia Tech' -5
46 'Louisville' -6
47 'Ohio' -6
48 'Army' -6
49 'Florida Atlantic' -6
50 'Houston' -6
51 'Virginia' -6
52 'Utah' -6
53 'California' -6
54 'Florida State' -6
55 'Arkansas State' -7
56 'North Texas' -7
57 'Navy' -7
58 'Wyoming' -7
59 'UCLA' -7
60 'Kansas State' -8
61 'Oregon' -8
62 'Maryland' -8
63 'Syracuse' -8
64 'Texas Tech' -8
65 'Nebraska' -8
66 'Florida' -9
67 'Georgia State' -9
68 'Tennessee' -9
69 'Arkansas' -9
70 'Indiana' -9
71 'Duke' -9
72 'Colorado' -10
73 'Northern Illinois' -10
74 'Marshall' -10
75 'Western Michigan' -10
76 'Vanderbilt' -10
77 'Ole Miss' -10
78 'Colorado State' -10
79 'Purdue' -10
80 'Alabama-Birmingham' -11
81 'UTSA' -11
82 'Rutgers' -11
83 'Minnesota' -11
84 'Central Michigan' -12
85 'Missouri' -12
86 'Appalachian State' -12
87 'Pittsburgh' -13
88 'Southern Miss' -14
89 'Akron' -14.5
90 'Utah State' -15
91 'Louisiana-Lafayette' -15
92 'Lousiana Tech' -16
93 'Western Kentucky' -16
94 'Temple' -16
95 'Louisiana-Monroe' -16
96 'Air Force' -17
97 'UNLV' -17
98 'Middle Tennessee' -18
99 'New Mexico State' -19
100 'Miami (OH)' -19
101 'Tulane' -19
102 'North Carolina' -19
103 'Cincinnati' -20
104 'Connecticut' -21
105 'South Alabama' -21
106 'East Carolina' -21.5
107 'Old Dominion' -22
108 'Illinois' -22
109 'Oregon State' -22
110 'Buffalo' -23
111 'New Mexico' -24
112 'Idaho' -24
113 'Hawaii' -24
114 'Baylor' -24.5
115 'Massachusetts' -25
116 'BYU' -25
117 'Kansas' -25
118 'Eastern Michigan' -26
119 'Tulsa' -26
120 'Texas State' -27
121 'Bowling Green' -27
122 'Kent State' -28
123 'Nevada' -28
124 'Charlotte' -30
125 'Ball State' -31
126 'Rice' -31
127 'Coastal Carolina' -32
128 'UTEP' -33
129 'Georgia Southern' -34
130 'San Jose State' -35

 

Comments

The Maizer

November 8th, 2017 at 4:05 PM ^

The winner of the conference championship game is also usually winning a +3 or +4 type game. So it ends up being a substantial boost for conference winners (+6 or +7). +10 makes it nearly impossible for a non-conference winner to qualify even if P5 conference winners are 3 or 4 loss teams.

Raizemage11

November 8th, 2017 at 4:05 PM ^

I am not too sure if I understand the iterative model correctly. At the first pass, how do you assign points for quality of wins/losses? Do you start with an initial ranking? If so, how do you pick the initial ranking? If so, how robust are the results with some change up in the initial ranking?

The Maizer

November 9th, 2017 at 10:22 AM ^

Thanks for the suggestion. I actually had a previous version that accounted for home vs. away wins and losses but it produced some counter-intuitive results and I axed it because tweaking it to look right felt too arbitrary. It might have just been an uncommon set of circumstances, however and I may revisit it in the future.

Mongo

November 8th, 2017 at 5:35 PM ^

How do you get to 12 points with -4 points from the loss to losing-record Syracuse?

  • Kent +0
  • AUB +3
  • Lou +3
  • BC +1
  • VT +3
  • Wake +1
  • 'Cuse -4
  • GT +0
  • NCS +3

That totals 10 points - am I missing something?

RichmondWolverine

November 8th, 2017 at 7:57 PM ^

What stands out to me is that for all the ragging on Wisconsin's strength of schedule, Alabama really hasn't played anyone better.  LSU and Texas A and M are the only winning P5 wins, and they don't grade into the top 25, which Northwestern does.  Granted, the rest of 'Bama's season is more impressive, if they survive it.

Tuebor

November 10th, 2017 at 10:30 AM ^

Shouldn't Michigan have 3 points?

 

We have wins against 5 losing P5 teams, UF, Purdue, IU, Rutgers, and Maryland so +5,

We have wins against 2 losing P5 teams, AFA and Cincy, so +0

Then we have 2 losses against top 10 teams, MSU and PSU, so -2

 

+5 and -2 equals 3.  Am I missing something?

 

Tuebor

November 10th, 2017 at 1:33 PM ^

That makes sense.

 

I like this type of analysis, but I'm not a fan of the linear scale that is based solely on wins and losses.  So Iowa's domination over OSU counts the same as Northwestern's OT win against Iowa.

 

It seems like if the goal is to award a point value to the winner and loser of a game you could somehow include a point differential to reward big wins more generously and not penalize close losses. 

 

Either way I enjoy reading this so thank you for doing it.