Last month I took a look at how the recruiting services stacked up when it came to predicting future college success. With the latest NFL Draft in the books I wanted to review it to see if there were major differences between services predicting the draft versus college success.

Even though NFL draft position doesn’t always equate to success at college, it is an indicator of talent and there are very few instances were great college players don’t ultimately end up in the NFL, mainly highly efficient noodle armed quarterbacks. Even rushing quarterbacks typically find their way onto draft boards where the Kellen Moore’s and Case Keenum’s of the world sign on as undrafted free agents.

Biggest Hits & Misses

Here are the players from the first three rounds that one service rated significantly different than the other two.

ESPN

ESPN had significantly more outliers than other two services. Luckily, the hits outweighed the misses. ESPN was the sole advocate for five first rounders and had more hits (9) than the other two services combined (7). The Worldwide Leader also racked up the misses at a record pace, missing on six top picks.

Hits

Morris Claiborne, Ryan Tannehill, Luke Kuechly, Kendal Wright, Whitney Mercilus, Courtney Upshaw, TJ Graham, Mohamed Sanu, Sean Spence

Misses

Matt Kalil, Mark Barron, Nick Perry, Mitchell Schwartz, Cordy Glenn, Isaiah Pead

Scout

Scout had only four players from the first three rounds that they significantly diverged from the other services on. Their divergence was centered on receivers as three of the four players they deviated on were wide outs.

Hits

Justin Blackmon, Stephen Hill, Olivier Vernon

Misses

Alshon Jeffery

Rivals

The players were different but Rivals hit and miss counts were virtually identical to Scout.

Hits

Quinton Coples, Brandon Taylor, Jamell Fleming, Jayron Hosley

Misses

AJ Jenkins

Round by Round Scorecard

How each round went, points given for whichever service had a draft pick rated highest (must be in the top 1000 ranked). Numbers listed as Rivals/Scout/ESPN.

Round 1: Push 8/9/9

Round 2: Rivals 11/4/6

Round 3: Rivals/ESPN 8/3/8

Round 4: Scout/ESPN 6/12/10

Round 5: Scout 5/9/3

Round 6: Rivals/ESPN 5/3/6

Round 7: Scout 8/12/6

Overall the wins were pretty evenly balanced across the services. Rivals taking at least a share of the first three rounds would probably give them the overall edge. They also had the lowest overall average ranking of draft picks.

Scorecard by Class

Class of 2007: Push 18/18/15

Class of 2008: Scout 22/29/26

Class of 2009: Rivals 10/6/5

Despite their overall strength, Rivals struggled in the main class of the draft, 2008.

The look at the NFL draft results versus the recruiting rankings mostly reinforce each other. Based on the data from both looks, here is how I would describe each service’s strengths and weaknesses.

Rivals: The best and most consistent performer. Year after year producing output at or above the level of any other service.

Scout: A very good second to Rivals. Similar consistency to Rivals and an overall level that is close but still a notch below. A quality second voice.

ESPN: The all or nothing service. Demonstrated that overallocation to the SEC that isn’t necessarily supported by the NFL draft. Blatant neglect of west coast recruits but willing to deviate from the other services, with mixed results.