Purdue Recap: Right back where we started from

Submitted by The Mathlete on November 15th, 2010 at 11:57 AM

With two games left in the regular season the total picture is starting to come into focus, and it’s right where a lot of us thought it would be going in, 7-8 wins for the season. With a home date against Wisconsin this week and then a trip to Columbus, I have a 46% shot at staying at 7, a 48% chance of splitting and going 8-4 and a slim 6% chance of running the table.

Sure we got a little carried away after another hot start and we got doom and gloom during the rough October stretch, but with two games left, at the top level this team is where many of us expected. Yeah, the offense has been better than we hoped at times and the defense has been worse than we feared at times, but add it all up and for the most part it makes sense.

Purdue Notes

With all the turnovers generating field position for the offenses, this game had a 32-29 advantage for Michigan in terms of expected points based on field position. The offenses responded with essentially a 21-9 result. Michigan offense under performed the field position by 11 points (12 if you count the special teams costing an extra point) and Michigan’s defense held Purdue 20 points below their expected points, not too mention adding a touchdown of their own. Yakety Sax it was.

Game scores:

Michigan rush: +2

Michigan pass: +2

Purdue rush: +0

Purdue pass: –13

Denard: +8 pass, +1 rush, –1 punt!

Tate: –2 pass, –1 rush

V Smith: +2

S Hopkins: –1

M Shaw: –1

R Roundtree: +8

D Stonum: +0

J Hemingway: +5

K Koger: +3

M Webb: +3

Big Ten Race

Based on remaining win probabilities and my best understanding of the tiebreaker procedures, here are my Big Ten Auto-berth odds:

Wisconsin: 36%

Michigan St: 30%

Ohio St: 19%

15% chance that everyone ends with at least two losses and craziness really ensues.

My Ballot

Based on suggestions last week I moved to a loss-penalty (-5 pts PAN) and am now ranking teams based on a loss-adjusted PAN.

Rank Team Conf PAN SOS Loss
1 Auburn SEC 23.1 5.33 -
2 Boise St WAC 19.9 -2.68 -
3 TCU Mtn West 19.7 0.61 -
4 Oregon PAC 10 15.5 -1.16 -
5 Oklahoma St Big XII 19.6 2.95 1
6 Stanford PAC 10 17.6 2.27 1
7 Nebraska Big XII 16.4 0.12 1
8 Ohio St Big Ten 15.2 -0.40 1
9 Arkansas SEC 19.5 5.75 2
10 Michigan St Big Ten 13.3 2.36 1
11 Alabama SEC 18.0 3.31 2
12 LSU SEC 12.4 5.22 1
13 Virginia Tech ACC 15.7 0.19 2
14 Oklahoma Big XII 15.6 4.12 2
15 Texas A&M Big XII 20.6 4.91 3
16 Wisconsin Big Ten 9.3 -0.08 1
17 Missouri Big XII 13.7 6.05 2
18 S Carolina SEC 18.2 7.54 3
19 Nevada WAC 7.5 -3.20 1
20 Hawaii WAC 14.8 4.23 3
21 Utah Mtn West 9.7 -1.38 2
22 Iowa Big Ten 13.9 2.19 3
23 USC PAC 10 12.7 2.23 3
24 Miami (FL) ACC 12.2 3.94 3
25 Mississippi St SEC 11.2 4.75 3

FWIW Michigan checks in at #33

Comments

mikel796

November 15th, 2010 at 4:37 PM ^

an upset this weekend.  It is good to see two wins that we are complaining about over the last two weeks...it means we expect more from this team....combine that with Wisconsin's cupcake schedule (really should've lost to ASU...Steven Threet anyone????).  I like our chances this weekend...a lot.

bronxblue

November 15th, 2010 at 8:29 PM ^

Nice work.  A little surprised you have Oregon ranked 4th with a negative SOS, but I'll trust your numbers.

I think the chance of a split to end the season rests entirely on the Wiscy game.  If the OSU game was home I would be much higher, but to ask this team to win in the Port-a-Shoe is probably too much, even with the mediocre OSU offense and banged-up secondary.

Dr Sardonicus

November 16th, 2010 at 10:17 AM ^

Given your overall odds (and assuming you treated the two games as independent events), you've got us with a just over 47% chance of beating Wisconsin and a just under 13% chance of beating OSU.  I guess I can't argue too much with those numbers.