Projecting Out the Remaining Spots of the 2015 Class

Submitted by alum96 on

We have a nice prior diary that is now a wiki, but due to the table format it is difficult to edit so let's do a post projecting the remaining spots of the class with a bit more detail in terms of serious candidates.  Aside from that wiki the MGo Depth Chart helps us project needs, and I did a diary last week on what positions have major needs for 2017 so we can reverse engineer 2015 'croots to fill those holes.

The question of the day is how many spots are truly open - MGo Depth chart says only 6, as long as both Glasgows and Kerridge are given scholarships.  I've read comments saying Sam Webb also says this is the #.   Of course some "gray" things can be done such as taking 8 commits and then assuming a few guys drop out after seeing the writing on the wall this spring.  Grayshirting is another option although more "controversial".   So I'll go 6 (floor and most likely) to 8 (ceiling and unlikely) spots. 

We'll look at it by position.  Please add any intel you may garner from various legit sources and I'll be happy to edit.  I am sure some more names will emerge in the coming days.

OFFENSE

TE

  • Chris Clark - target #1.  NSD decision between UCLA and UM.  Gut feel says UM despite recent comments about neck and neck with UCLA.  UM offense focuses on TE, UCLA does not.  UM coaches have developed NFL TEs.  Heart was once with UM.
  • Matt Snyder - current NEB commit set to visit this weekend.  Followed Riley from Oregon State to Nebraska.
  • Jake Pickard - current WIS commit.
  • (sorta) Ty Wheatley - seems to project more to DE but some feel at 260 lbs he can still be a TE as he grows in the coming years.

Projecting - Chris Clark

 

FB

  • Reagan Williams - Stanford commit visiting this weekend.  With Kerridge and Houma both graduating post 2015 and Shallman the only type on roster to fill this roll this position is a need.  Looks like he will be visiting for 3 days so serious interest.  Can play close to home as he is from Ohio.  50/50 chance perhaps.

Projecting - Reagan Williams.  Harbaugh magic works this weekend.

 

RB

  • Mike Weber - former UM commit who could see the competition crowding at OSU.  Yes UM will probably get a good back in 2016 as well to provide competition but the entire roster not named Ty Isaac clears out at RB post 2016.  Clearer path to playing time here, close to home, etc.
  • [edit] John Kelly (also a potential DB) - Harbaugh is saying very nice things about him and crystall ballz trending our way but UM was late to this game.  MSU and TN seem to be the major competition.  Just committed to TN, UM will continue to pursue to NSD.

Projecting - Mike Weber or maybe whichever commits first of the 2 due to limited spots

 

QB

  • [edit] Zach Gentry - NM product committed to Texas for a long time has some foggy smoke a raging inferno around him.
  • McClane Carter - wasn't much interest in Carter nationally until Jim sniffed around which brought along some other interests.  Not sure if this is a scholarship type of guy or someone who you bring in for a year with a chance to earn a scholarship when more open up in year 2.

Projecting - tough one to figure.  Not sure if you give Carter a scholarship with a tiny class like this.  Maybe he comes with the promise of a 2016 scholarship.  Gentry is a long time UT commit, seems unlikely to flip in closing weeks.

 

WR

  • Ryan Davis - super fun HS QB who might not have top flight speed but ridiculous change of direction and vision.  Will know better in the coming days if there is anything real here.  Would love this guy for punt returns and as a slot WR.
  • [Edit] Austin Aaron - Cal commit, some noise early in Harbaugh chase with him ; not hearing much lately.

Projecting - none.

 

OL

  • Nolan Ulizio - lightly ranked OL out of OH, committed to UConn getting some love from Michigan, Kentucky.   On paper seems like a no brainer to UM.  But if higher rated prospects at other positions are in play he might be told there is no room in the closing days of the signing period.  If this class was 16+ spots he'd probably be a close to sure yes.

Projecting - none only due to other commits taking his spot.  If those fall thru he seems likely.

 

DEFENSE

DB

  • Damon Arnette - SC commit getting the most attention of a host of CB prospects.  Was in town this past weekend and was visited by Harbaugh, Durkin, and Mattison at home Wednesday.  His HS is a NFL factory so is a key bridge to get into that school.
  • Chris Williamson - late riser on recruiting boards out of GA getting interest from UF, UM, NC, Cal and GA.  Was at NC last weekend, will be at UM this weekend, then UF the following weekend.
  • Will Lockett - UCLA commit who will be in town this weekend
  • Jarius Adams - Rutgers commit
  • Iman Marshall - obviously a crown jewel but some believe to be a silent commit to USC which of course they deny.  Dad did not join him on trip.  Sounds like UM did a great job hosting but most likely too little too late and a 2nd/3rd place finish for his services.

Projecting - serious chance for 2 CBs even if we only have 2 slots.  Guessing Arnette is 1. Hopefully Williamson is impressed this weekend but still has a visit to UF next weekend.

 

DE

  • Reuben Jones - NEB commit also getting the full court press, will be visiting this weekend. Seems very unlikely he remains at NEB; it looks like a Louisville (where he was last weekend) vs UM battle with MSU trying to poke their nose in there.
  • Jalen Bates - ASU commit but not much noise here after some initial excitement. No crystal ballz to UM.
  • KLS - sort of been a tease from afar thru the Hoke era, but a UCLA commit and it seems solid.
  • Ty Wheatley (more likely here than TE) - dude could play a great game of poker.

Projecting - Reuben Jones if this weekend goes well but Louisville seems very much into it.  As with Arnette, Mattison Durkin and Harbaugh all visited in home Wednesday.  Wheatley is a tough one - this might be a case of a guy wanting to strike out on his own away from his dad.  I have zero inside info but for some reason this feels like a Treadwell McDowell situation.  If dad was not coaching I don't think UM would have any chance.

 

LB

  • Roquan Smith - highly ranked GA LB is a major target for UM, who has a chance due to Durkin.  Most still think he is headed to GA but this past weekend seemd to do UM a lot of good.  The longer his recruiting process goes the better for UM's chances.

Projecting - none.

 

OFF THE BOARD / UNLIKELY

  • Marcus Lewis CB - this seemed like a sure commit post summer BBQ.  But his final 3 is Kentucky, Miami (YTM), and WSU (?!).
  • Nate Dalton CB - visited in home and at school by Harbaugh Tuesday but more interested in Liberty.  Or Bret B at Arkansas.
  • Arrington Farrar S - a Stanford decommit who sounded like a natural fit but the last 5 crystal ballz have him headed to ND.
  • Drew Lock QB -  Missouri commit looks like a no.
  • Joe Burrow QB - OSU commit apparently told Jim no.
  • Cordell Broadus WR - his dad wants him to go to USC, and other than some nice words before Harbaugh was hired about Harbaugh there doesn't seem to be much connection there.
  • Auden Tate WR - committed to FSU last summer, not much smoke anymore. [edit:  Harbaugh apparently visited 1/22]
  • David Moorman OL - exiled WIS commit seems to want to hear from UM; not sure if there is any smoke there.
  • [edit][edit again] Joshua McMillon - Alabama commit out of TN who was once sort of high on Michigan during the Hoke period is set to visit.  He cancelled his visit.

 

My pulled out of rear end class then falls like this

  1. TE Chris Clark OR non Clark TE
  2. RB Mike Weber OR RB/ATH John Kelly
  3. FB Reagan Williams
  4. CB Damon Arnette
  5. DE Reuben Jones
  6. A second CB - too foggy to tell but not Marshall*
  7. (if room) RB Mike Weber/ATH John Kelly  - edit: Zach Gentry (?)
  8. (if room) OL Nolan Ulizio

*you probably hold this spot open until the moment LB Roquan Smith says I am going to Georgia.

I am not a subscriber to recruiting services so maybe some are saying DE/TE Ty Wheatley is a sure thing or close to it.  So I'd be wrong on that end if true.  Yesterday's offer to Jake Pickard - who is also a DE/TE combo makes me wonder.

 

 

Comments

alum96

January 22nd, 2015 at 8:37 AM ^

I'm not certain of anything until Feb 4th.  These are just my projections.

As others have said he is at a pipeline school to USC, lives in the area, his dad is very involved in his recruiting and did not join, he left a day early as opposed to reports he was staying til Wednesday etc.  None of the crystal balls changed to UM which usually happens at least for a few people immediately after an official visit.  So it's just probability.

Maybe he has a change of heart and comes to UM - none of us know.

BlueCube

January 22nd, 2015 at 10:29 AM ^

anything happening unless Harbaugh talked to dad. The fact that he's agreed to meet is big. His dad is all about getting him to the NFL and Harbaugh more than anyone probably knows what it takes to not just get there but to be successful. I think it will be a very interesting meeting.

 

 

AZBlue

January 22nd, 2015 at 9:52 AM ^

FYI on the Wednesday "change" for Marshall, it was noted elsewhere that there is a 48-hour time limit on officials and he arrived Sunday afternoon/evening. If he had stayed until Wednesday everything beyond 48-hours would have been on his dime. I think someone along the line just heard "MLK day visit" and assumed arrive Monday = leave Wednesday.

Space Coyote

January 22nd, 2015 at 8:36 AM ^

I know his ranking isn't very high, but I really like the kid's feet. Prevent him from leaning so much and I think you got yourself a really good interior OL in the coming years. Plus I think Michigan needs another OL in this class.

alum96

January 22nd, 2015 at 8:45 AM ^

Do you see him as an eventual interior lineman at this level?  The 2017 depth chart could use another guard.  I know it is "good" this class is so small due to the coachiing change but a class of 15 would have been better than 12 just to space out kids better across classes.

I'd like another S in this class, an OG and 2 CBs (and 2 DEs).  But no room.

MichiganMan14

January 22nd, 2015 at 9:02 AM ^

I like John Kelly regardless of Weber re-commiting. Kelly is an athlete that we can find a spot for. I really like the Reagan kid too. Jim needs a fullback. I think Chris Clark knows where he needs to be. Reuben Jones and Arnette would be great additions as well. This class will wind up being solid and with a little signing day magic...we could have a really solid class.

alum96

January 22nd, 2015 at 10:07 AM ^

UM basically ignored Kelly while MSU and TN were on him all along.  (and MN)  While it is a different staff those were relationships that UM did not build.

Looks like 4 people went TN yesterday - the equivalent of Lorenz for TN, Lorenz, Wiltfong, and some dude I never heard of.

I guess the bullish take is "Mike Weber is so flipping" and "we cooled on Kelly".  Bearish take is that is incremental negative on 1 target.

turd ferguson

January 22nd, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^

It's pretty crazy that this class is as small as it is, especially in a coaching transition year.  My guess list is pretty similar to yours.  FWIW, Lorenz just predicted John Kelly to Tennessee.  We're getting a lot of Reuben Jones, Nolan Ulizio, and Jake Pickard predictions right now. 

My guesses, from my most confident guess to my least confident guess:

  • QB Zach Gentry
  • OL Nolan Ulizio (with Cole playing as a true freshman, we're essentially looking at only JBB, Newsome, and Runyan across two classes, which is scary)
  • DE Reuben Jones
  • TE Jake Pickard
  • FB Reagan Williams
  • CB Will Lockett
  • CB Damon Arnette
  • RB Mike Weber

Edit: Gentry'd.

maize-blue

January 22nd, 2015 at 9:50 AM ^

We're less than two weeks away from National Signing Day. Several of the UM targets will not declare their intentions until that day. When should we become a little nervous about filling out the class if we don't see a few of the open spots taken soon?

alum96

January 22nd, 2015 at 10:05 AM ^

While anything can happen I can't imagine any scenario where UM does not fill 6 spots in a month of work.  This is a tiny class.

I think there will be a lot more clarity come Monday morning because a lot of potential flips will be on campus.  And I think there is a CB derby.   Sort of reminds me of Beilein with the PG class of 2013 where he basically offered the spot to 3 guys and whichever commited first got the job.

DCGrad

January 22nd, 2015 at 10:39 AM ^

I know I'm slightly biased but why would not want to come get a great education and play for a guy who has consistently put guys in NFL during his Stanford tenure.  Seems like a win-win.

Yostbound and Down

January 22nd, 2015 at 10:53 AM ^

Thanks for the post alum96, good review of the class.

What's going on with Austin Aaron, I heard he considered flipping from Cal?  

If I had to guess right now I'd say we get Clark, Weber, Kelly, Arnette, Gentry, Wheatley, Ulizio and Pickard. Carter seems like a walk-on more than an actual guy. I think Gentry is seriously looking around.

alum96

January 22nd, 2015 at 12:26 PM ^

Thanks, I forgot about him.  Will add him to list.  Haven't heard too much after the initial talk - would assume if he is serious he will be headed to AA next week or the week after.

re: Carter - I just have hesitancy with out of state "walk ons" - this is a very very expensive school to go to from out of state, so unless you are really in some world where you think Jim will make you into an NFL player - it probably makes more sense to walk on at a school in your own state, or a much cheaper one than UM is for out of states.  If his family is very well off or struggling (need based financial aid) that would alleviate that concern to a degree but for a solidly middle class family paying $50K+ a year or whatever it is now is $200K over 4 yrs.

alum96

January 22nd, 2015 at 12:14 PM ^

Haha.  Brian will never forgive my incursion as the anti Mullen flag bearer.  Thankfully it's moot because HARBAAAAUUUGGGHHHH.

p.s It looks like Kelly is going to announce today to Vols.  But then their OC just quit 15 minutes ago.  Strange.  Sounds ilke Harbaugh won't give up until NSD from what someone else wrote. 

Getting Gentry would be awesome  I need to figure out whatare some good Texas blogs to see what they are saying - that is a long time commit.

LBSS

January 22nd, 2015 at 12:31 PM ^

I did some Googling around and found nothing relevant. However, I did find this epic quote from the SBN Texas blog: "Michigan is arguably the most recognized college football program after Texas."

LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL. Is Texas even in the top-5 most recognized college football programs right now? ND, Ohio State, Bama, Florida, USC, Michigan, ...

Great Lakes Pirate

January 22nd, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^

I think there is a really good chance of Michigan snagging Roquan Smith. He was really high on Durkin initially, and he really seems to have been warming to the program as a whole.

And it would be so fantastic to pull a high quality defender out of GA, that there may be undue optimism and such on my part. But I've never not been a Kool-Aid drinker so.... glug glug. 

BLUEyouout

January 22nd, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^

I'm not sure about all the other recruits but I'm posting my predicted black swans for the rest of the programs. These flipped flap jacks are: 1. QB Zach Gentry - The Harbaugh appeal and expertise v's Strong and company is to much for the Longhorns to overcome. 2. TE Chris Clark - This kid committed once and things have only gotten better at UM since. 3. CB Iman Marshall - His aggressive play, relationship with Canteen, Peppers mentorship/competitive push, and NFL coaching expertise on staff is exactly what this kid needs to put him in the NFL which is his fathers #1 concern. His dad will make the distance sacrifice. 4. LB Roquan Smith - I think this kids coming. Just my gut so deal with it. 5. TE/DE Wheatley Jr. - Because I said so. 6. FB Reagan Williams - Harbaugh knows exactly how to sell against Stanford. UM is close to home and a damn find academic school. He wants the best of both worlds. He wants playing time and a diploma with clout. Mike Weber is not flipping back in my opinion. I think he took a drink of the OSU cool-aid. According to his twitter page the kid is all but looking at himself dancing in the mirror with a bucknutt necklace on.

BLUEyouout

January 22nd, 2015 at 3:58 PM ^

I'm not sure about all the other recruits but I'm posting my predicted black swans for the rest of the programs. These flipped flap jacks are: 1. QB Zach Gentry - The Harbaugh appeal and expertise v's Strong and company is to much for the Longhorns to overcome. 2. TE Chris Clark - This kid committed once and things have only gotten better at UM since. 3. CB Iman Marshall - His aggressive play, relationship with Canteen, Peppers mentorship/competitive push, and NFL coaching expertise on staff is exactly what this kid needs to put him in the NFL which is his fathers #1 concern. His dad will make the distance sacrifice. 4. LB Roquan Smith - I think this kids coming. Just my gut so deal with it. 5. TE/DE Wheatley Jr. - Because I said so. 6. FB Reagan Williams - Harbaugh knows exactly how to sell against Stanford. UM is close to home and a damn find academic school. He wants the best of both worlds. He wants playing time and a diploma with clout. Mike Weber is not flipping back in my opinion. I think he took a drink of the OSU cool-aid. According to his twitter page the kid is all but looking at himself dancing in the mirror with a bucknutt necklace on.

BlueinOK

January 22nd, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^

Joshua McMillon is coming this weekend, according to Sam Webb. So it does look like we want to bring in a LB. He hinted at another 4-star visitor this weekend. 

wolverinebutt

January 22nd, 2015 at 7:03 PM ^

Another fine job Alum - Thanks.

I think Gentry is coming.  QB to QB - Andrew Luck's Coach - BAM.

If Clark is coming at TE why are we after so many TE's?  

I think we will have one big suprise recruit that JH jackhammers away from someone.  Iman Marshall?  Who knows, but like the bottom of a cracker jack box we will get a prize.

Buckle up    

flashOverride

January 23rd, 2015 at 4:16 PM ^

I just don't see why Harbaugh's not taking a run at that Wisconsin decommit Sam Madden. Is it academics or just that Michigan's more in need of an OG type as opposed to OT?

EDIT: Downvote for asking an honest question is what I love about this place!

GoBlue-in-Philly

January 23rd, 2015 at 4:08 PM ^

Can't wait until the 4th. I don't think we will get verbals. Just NSD decisions or they will be silent. Kids who wait this long want their day in the sun. Maybe one or two guys verbally committ publicly but I don't see who other than perhaps Clark.