Probabilities of wins in the remainder of the season

Submitted by jswavel34 on October 15th, 2008 at 10:08 PM

There is a site (http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com) where you can create a fantasy matchup between two teams in the present or past era and the game is simulated and a score and statistics are generated. I ran a trial of 1,000 games for each of the remaining games on the schedule and recorded the scores and amount of Michigan wins. Using the amount of Michigan wins, I calculated the “win rate” or the statistical percentage for the probability of a Michigan win in a given instance based on the results of the 1,000 trials ran (This was done by taking the amount of Michigan wins divided by 1000 x 100 for a percentage) . (You can run 25 trials at a time and it gives you the scores along with the average score and the number of wins for each team). The results were as follows:

  

* Home field is taken into consideration.

          Average Score

                               

Michigan – 15.3

Penn State – 31.625

 

Win Rate: 3.8%

   

Michigan – 26.6

Michigan State – 24.8

 

Win Rate: 58.0%

   

Michigan - 23                                                                                 

Purdue – 26.1

 

Win Rate: 38.5%

   

Michigan – 25.325

Minnesota – 25.79487

 

Win Rate: 47.2%

   

Michigan – 25.975

Northwestern – 23.125

 

Win Rate: 62.7%

   

Michigan – 14.875

Ohio State – 29.175

 

Win Rate: 6.6%

   

I also did 1,000 trials for the Utah game for reference and comparison.

 

            Average Score

 

Michigan – 16.675

Utah – 24.45

 

Win Rate: 21.4%

   

Comments

BlueSwave34

October 15th, 2008 at 11:00 PM ^

Thanks for the research. That is some very interesting info. Hopefully the season will go alot better than that but that is a big reality check. One thing for sure is that RR will get this thing going in the right direction and this storm will pass. Go Blue!!

GCS

October 15th, 2008 at 11:21 PM ^

Two people join about an hour apart, both have swave in their name, one posts a diary that hopes to direct traffic to a website, and the other comments on what a great post it is. I see what's going on here.

joeyb

October 15th, 2008 at 11:32 PM ^

Don't forget about 34 in both of their names. Nice catch. I am not sure I would have seen it but the comment sounded pretty cheesy.

I think those chances of winning are a lot more accurate than what was posted by Brian earlier. I guess we will have to see though.

Jeff

October 15th, 2008 at 11:30 PM ^

It seems really odd that we would be more likely to beat Michigan St than Purdue or Minnesota. I would have to imagine it would be opposite, even accounting for home field advantage.

joeyb

October 15th, 2008 at 11:34 PM ^

My guess is that it goes by statistics. It sees that they have a poor quarterback and everything is done on the ground. It also sees that we have been pretty good against the run. I haven't seen Minnesota much this year, but Purdue is a spread passing offense, something that we are not very good at protecting against.

TarHeelverine

October 16th, 2008 at 12:04 AM ^

With UM at Home; "Michigan(1997) wins 14 of 25 matchups against Nebraska(1997)
Projected Score: Michigan 26 Nebraska 25"

At Nebraska;
"Nebraska(1997) wins 13 of 25 matchups against Michigan(1997)
Projected Score: Nebraska 23 Michigan 20"

And had 2006 been a home year;

"Michigan(2006) wins 14 of 25 matchups against Ohio St.(2006)
Projected Score: Michigan 21 Ohio St. 21"

BlueSwave34

October 18th, 2008 at 12:29 PM ^

Yep I have nothing to do with the website I was just commenting on the post that he did put a considerable amount of time and effort into. Sorry if anyone thought otherwise. Go Blue!!