Probabilities of wins in the remainder of the season

Submitted by jswavel34 on October 15th, 2008 at 10:08 PM

There is a site (http://www.nationalsportsrankings.com) where you can create a fantasy matchup between two teams in the present or past era and the game is simulated and a score and statistics are generated. I ran a trial of 1,000 games for each of the remaining games on the schedule and recorded the scores and amount of Michigan wins. Using the amount of Michigan wins, I calculated the “win rate” or the statistical percentage for the probability of a Michigan win in a given instance based on the results of the 1,000 trials ran (This was done by taking the amount of Michigan wins divided by 1000 x 100 for a percentage) . (You can run 25 trials at a time and it gives you the scores along with the average score and the number of wins for each team). The results were as follows:

  

* Home field is taken into consideration.

          Average Score

                               

Michigan – 15.3

Penn State – 31.625

 

Win Rate: 3.8%

   

Michigan – 26.6

Michigan State – 24.8

 

Win Rate: 58.0%

   

Michigan - 23                                                                                 

Purdue – 26.1

 

Win Rate: 38.5%

   

Michigan – 25.325

Minnesota – 25.79487

 

Win Rate: 47.2%

   

Michigan – 25.975

Northwestern – 23.125

 

Win Rate: 62.7%

   

Michigan – 14.875

Ohio State – 29.175

 

Win Rate: 6.6%

   

I also did 1,000 trials for the Utah game for reference and comparison.

 

            Average Score

 

Michigan – 16.675

Utah – 24.45

 

Win Rate: 21.4%

   

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