Probabilities of wins in the remainder of the season

Submitted by jswavel34 on October 15th, 2008 at 10:08 PM

There is a site ( where you can create a fantasy matchup between two teams in the present or past era and the game is simulated and a score and statistics are generated. I ran a trial of 1,000 games for each of the remaining games on the schedule and recorded the scores and amount of Michigan wins. Using the amount of Michigan wins, I calculated the “win rate” or the statistical percentage for the probability of a Michigan win in a given instance based on the results of the 1,000 trials ran (This was done by taking the amount of Michigan wins divided by 1000 x 100 for a percentage) . (You can run 25 trials at a time and it gives you the scores along with the average score and the number of wins for each team). The results were as follows:


* Home field is taken into consideration.

          Average Score


Michigan – 15.3

Penn State – 31.625


Win Rate: 3.8%


Michigan – 26.6

Michigan State – 24.8


Win Rate: 58.0%


Michigan - 23                                                                                 

Purdue – 26.1


Win Rate: 38.5%


Michigan – 25.325

Minnesota – 25.79487


Win Rate: 47.2%


Michigan – 25.975

Northwestern – 23.125


Win Rate: 62.7%


Michigan – 14.875

Ohio State – 29.175


Win Rate: 6.6%


I also did 1,000 trials for the Utah game for reference and comparison.


            Average Score


Michigan – 16.675

Utah – 24.45


Win Rate: 21.4%