I think predicting wins and losses over specific teams is slightly insane. Obviously nobody knows or they'd be making money hand over fist in Vegas. But what does make sense to me is predicting the liklihood of beating a particular team. That said, I probably woud've assessed our chances in The Horror at 99%, so take everything here with a grain of salt.
Here are my percent chances of winning each game this season:
- 45% - Utah - I don't like the 1st game thing, and I really don't like the O-line in the first game. Call me crazy. But still, seems like our D could be better, maybe much better, than their offense.
- 90% - Miami (OH) - Could be more, but I'm not more than 90% confident of any game on this schedule.
- 55% - Notre Dame - Obviously more if their first game looks Yakety Sax. That said, I can't help but think they'll be much improved until I see differently. My Dad is an ND fan, so I'm genetically predisposed to fear the worst from them.
- 30% - Wisconsin - Damn them.
- 40% - Illinois - Damn them too.
- 90% - Toledo - Again, I'm not going higher than 90%. We should have far superior talent.
- 66% - Penn State - This could be the year the Zombie busts out, but probably not.
- 30% - MSU - I have a bad feeling this IS the year Little Brother busts out.
- 80% - Purdue - They aren't predicted to do great things, and we have kinda had their number. Like Germany has kinda had Poland's.
- 85% - Minny - They're likely near the bottom of the Big Ten this season. Before anyone asks "why not 90%??", consider that anything 80% or above is a whole lot, and we're just splitting hairs.
- 90% - Northwestern - And here's the other side of the split hair. I don't see Coach Rod losing to another spread offense with superior talent on his side. Threet has more innate ability than any of their QB's, period.
- 10% - Ohio State - Oh how it pains me to admit that percentage. We're a year away, IMHO.
Expected value of wins? Just over 7. Let me know what you think.