Penn St Preview

Submitted by The Mathlete on October 28th, 2010 at 6:13 PM

All numbers included in this preview are using my PAN metric, Points Above Normal. PAN is essentially how many points above an average FBS team was a team/unit/player worth. For reference, an average FBS team is approximately equal to Northwestern or a top team from the MAC.

All games against FCS teams are excluded, as well as any plays in the second half where one team leads by more than 2 touchdowns or any end of half run-out-the-clock situations.

Unless otherwise noted, numbers include adjustment for opponent, which are starting to be more accurate as most teams have played at least half their schedule vs in-conference or quality non-conference opponents.

Rush Offense vs Penn St

Michigan Off +7 PAN, 2nd nationally, 1st Big Ten

PSU Def +1 , 53rd, 6th

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Michigan has been well above average in every game this year and four of the six outings have been very positive. Alabama’s unit has been largely average. It had three decent performances and two below average games.

With Denard missing significant time against Iowa, the Cam Newton express has pushed Auburn into the #1 rushing spot nationally but Michigan is still a strong second. Cam also pushed Denard out of the top spot in the overall QB ratings but like the team rushing, Denard is still holding strong at #2, with all of Michigan’s +7 coming from him.

Hopkins has been the most efficiently productive back, averaging +1 in the games he has gotten carries, while Vincent Smith as netted out to +0 and Shaw is at –1.

With all of the injuries, Penn St may be able to slow the Michigan ground game but it should still be a big advantage for Michigan.

Pass Offense vs Penn St

Michigan Off +5, 16th, 2nd

PSU Def +2, 37th, 4th

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Although the value and ranks are higher for the Penn St defense you’ll notice the large negative performance posted by the Nittany Lions when they faced their only other mobile QB against Illinois. Illinois had by far its best passing day of the season, leaving Penn St with an ugly –10 for the day.

Denard currently ranks 7th among Big Ten QBs in passing value but the team rating is much higher on the fact that Michigan is currently #2 nationally, having only allowed about 1.5 points lost due to sacks for the full season.

Hemingway, Roundtree and Stonum are presently ranked 10, 14, and 19 respectively among Big Ten receivers. Indiana is currently the only other team to have three receivers ranked in the top 20 in the Big Ten.

Even without an Illinois-level meltdown for the Nittany Lion pass defense, Michigan should still expect to come out ahead in the matchup through the air.

Rush Defense vs Penn St

Michigan Def –2, 93rd, 9th

Penn St Off –2, 96th, 9th

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Two groups don’t get as evenly matched as the Penn St ground game and the Michigan rush defense. Both have the same value, nearly identical national ranks and both are #9 in the Big Ten. They both even have one terrible game (Iowa for PSU and MSU for Michigan) to go with a couple decent showings and a bunch of below average games.

When Royster has gotten carries he has been successful, ranking second individually among Big Ten running backs. Penn St just hasn’t been able to get him consistent carries and there hasn’t been any support behind him.

This shouldn’t be a matchup that is capable of killing the struggling Michigan defense. As long as Michigan can keep them from getting Royster a ton of carries a draw would be a likely outcome and a welcome showing.

Pass Defense vs Penn St

Michigan Def –3, 99th, 9th

PSU Off –3, 90th, 10th

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Weakness on weakness. Just like the rush defense, the pass defense is in a pretty equal matchup. That is assuming that Penn St can match the production of their concussed true freshman quarterback with an upperclassman walk-on.

Michigan is hitting the critical portion of their schedule where they need to pick up some wins against the Big Ten’s three lowest rated quarterbacks. Robert Bolden is likely out on Saturday but he was already ranked dead last in the Big Ten quarterbacks with –3 per game.

Penn St has only produced one above average passing game of the season and that was against Kent St in Week 3. In about a half’s worth of time last weekend against lowly Minnesota, presumed Michigan starter Matt McGloin was –2.5 (unadjusted) despite throwing a pair of touchdown passes. In mop-up duty throughout the season, Kevin Newsome was –1 (unadjusted) in total for both rushes and passes.

No matter who the quarterback ends up being, these are the matchups over the next three Saturdays that Michigan’s pass defense has to make headway on to finish the season out strong.

Special Teams vs Penn St

Michigan –1.5, 108th, 11th

PSU +3.8, 14th, 1st

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After four nice looking matchups, we get to the ugly one. Penn St has been very solid on special teams this season. The big score against Illinois is from two fumbled Illini punt returns. The Nittany Lions aren’t much of a threat to break a long return, but their punt and kickoff units, along with their kicker, have been among the best in the nation this season.

Penn St has the number one ranked KO cover unit with only one return past the 26 allowed on the season, and even that only went to the 35. Michigan’s strong offensive advantage should help neutralize any field position gains from Penn St’s good kicking units.

Prediction Almost Certain to Cost You Money if Taken Seriously

Michigan 35 Penn St 24

My model is calling for something closer than this but of the four major units, there is one great (Michigan Offense), one average (Penn St Defense) and two bad (Michigan Defense and Penn St Offense). Also part of the closer score is the big special teams disparity. I don’t think that will come to fruition because Penn St’s strength has come in the form of defensive field position but Michigan has proven this year that field position is largely irrelevant for their high-powered offense.

Elsewhere in the Big Ten

Iowa 28 Michigan St 26 – Sparty’s dream season could certainly clear it’s last major hurdle but I do think this is where it ends.

Northwestern 35 Indiana 31 – Should be a fun one to watch even if there isn’t much on the line.

Ohio St 42 Minnesota 17 – Another easy one for the Buckeyes

Illinois 27 Purdue 13 – The [NAME REDACTED] redemption tour continues

National games

Utah 35 Air Force 31

Georgia 31 Florida 28

Upset Special: USC 35 Oregon 34 – Despite the gaudy numbers, my database is still not sold on the Ducks due to their relatively weak schedule.

Comments

ish

October 28th, 2010 at 6:32 PM ^

well if bolden was the lowest rated passer and we get a downgrade from him, even our pass defense better be able to get it done.

UMAmaizinBlue

October 28th, 2010 at 6:55 PM ^

Those PAN match-ups. Our defense seems to match up ok with their TURRIBLE offense, but our offense looks like it should easily outgain the Lions in every category. Now, let's all cross our fingers for winning/tying the TOM and limited special teams SNAFUs.

UMaD

October 29th, 2010 at 2:18 AM ^

I enjoy reading your previews before each game. Have you thought about including the pure objective model prediction? It seems strange to put in so much quanitative analysis and then in the end to toss it for a subjectivly more optimistic view.  Even if you provide a sound argument for straying from the numbers, it'd be interesting to see what the raw model prediction would be.

uminks

October 29th, 2010 at 2:57 AM ^

The offense needs to shake out the mistakes of the last two weeks.  We need to score more TD's in the red-zone.  We will move the ball against PSU but am worried about TO.  Time for a young team to regain it's focus and beat a lousy PSU team on the road!

nmumike

October 29th, 2010 at 8:27 AM ^

I agree with the point about red zone offense, we need to get 7's not 3's (or attempted 3's). If we can score TD's in the red zone and force some turnovers (what is our ratio turnovers to forced turnovers this year?) we will squeak this one out. PSU is always tough at home at night...

Hannibal.

October 29th, 2010 at 9:50 AM ^

We're -7 on TOs the last two weeks.  There are two ways to look at this.  One way is that it proves that we are mistake-prone and we'll have trouble losing this game.  Another way to look at it is that it's an extreme trend that is bound to change or even reverse once or twice.  For us to lose this game, we'll have to be minus on turnovers.  I could just as easily see us plus.  If we are -3, we will probably lose a close one.  But if we're +3, I think that it will be a slaughter.  I think that the anxiousness over this game is a result of assuming the former.  Is there anyone who thinks that Penn State will win this game if the turnover margin is zero?

wolfman81

October 29th, 2010 at 4:53 PM ^

And Misopogon has been saying that we should be "in" games if we don't turn over the ball. 

I see it this simply.  Turning the ball over means forcing our Defense to make one more stop (be it by TO or punt).  And this defense doesn't need any more stress than it already has on a weekly basis.  We aren't planning on winning any games when we only score 17 points...not this season anyway.

MGoGolf

October 29th, 2010 at 1:54 PM ^

We don't need field goals if we're always scoring touchdowns.  And our punter is getting better each game.   I want to see an ass whooping tomorrow.