Ideally we'll win all of our games and this post will prove irrelevant. But it's worth a look at our probability and path to getting into the playoff with one loss.
I'm going to make an assumption that could prove wrong. Let's say that only two types of teams could get into the playoff ahead of a one-loss Michigan team*:
- Undefeated or one-loss teams from power conferences
- Undefeated teams from non-power conferences
I'll assume that everyone else is out. I don't think that's a guarantee, since a two-loss conference champion could sneak ahead of us if we lose to OSU and miss the BTCG. But in general that's probably pretty reasonable.
This leaves 21 teams as of today. Some of them (like WMU) wouldn't beat us out no matter what. Others are here because of soft schedules but should disappear soon, which is clear when you look at their remaining schedules (on the right). Games between the teams on this list appear in bold. Conference championship games exist but aren't represented.
*Worth noting that all losses aren't created equal. We'd be in much better shape with a loss and then a Big Ten title than a 40-point loss to OSU that ends our season.
|6-0 Clemson||ACC (Atlantic)||NCST, @FSU, SYR, PITT, WAKE, SC|
|4-1 NC State||ACC (Atlantic)||@CLEM, @LOU, BC, FSU, @SYR, MIAMI, UNC|
|5-1 Wake Forest||ACC (Atlantic)||@FSU, ARMY, UVA, @LOU, CLEM, BC|
|4-1 Louisville||ACC (Atlantic)||DUKE, NCST, @UVA, @BC, WAKE, @HOU, UK|
|4-1 Virginia Tech||ACC (Coastal)||@SYR, MIAMI, @PITT, @DUKE, GT, @ND, UVA|
|4-1 Miami||ACC (Coastal)||UNC, @VT, @ND, PITT, @UVA, @NCST, DUKE|
|5-0 Baylor||Big 12||KU, @TEX, TCU, @OKLA, KSU, TTU, @WVU|
|4-0 West Virginia||Big 12||@TTU, TCU, @OKST, KU, @TEX, OKLA, @ISU, BAY|
|5-0 Ohio State||Big Ten (East)||@WIS, @PSU, NW, NEB, @MD, @MSU, MICH|
|4-1 Maryland||Big Ten (East)||MINN, MSU, @IND, @MICH, OSU, @NEB, RUTG|
|5-0 Nebraska||Big Ten (West)||@IND, PUR, @WIS, @OSU, MINN, MD, @IOWA|
|4-1 Wisconsin||Big Ten (West)||OSU, @IOWA, NEB, @NW, ILL, @PUR, MINN|
|6-0 Western Michigan||MAC (West)||@AKR, EMU, @BALL, @KENT, BUFF, TOL|
|5-0 Boise State||Mountain West (West)||CSU, BYU, @WYO, SJSU, @HAW, UNLV, @AFA|
|6-0 Washington||Pac-12 (North)||[bye] ORST, @UTAH, @CAL, USC, ASU, @WSU|
|5-1 Arizona State||Pac-12 (South)||@COLO, WSU, @ORE, UTAH, @WASH, @ARIZ|
|5-1 Utah||Pac-12 (South)||@ORST, @UCLA, WASH, @ASU, ORE, @COLO|
|5-1 Tennessee||SEC (East)||ALA, @SC, TNTC, UK, MIZ, @VAN|
|4-1 Florida||SEC (East)||MIZ, UGA, @ARK, SC, PRE, @FSU, LSU(?)|
|6-0 Texas A&M||SEC (West)||[bye] @ALA, NMSU, @MSST, MISS, UTSA, LSU|
|6-0 Alabama||SEC (West)||@TENN, TA&M, @LSU, MSST, CHAT, AUB|
If you're looking for a list of teams to root against, this might be a good place to start.