Over/Under: UMASS vs Michigan

Submitted by jamiemac on September 17th, 2010 at 1:52 PM

[Ed: Bumped for the line change info on Michigan's major step forward in Vegas. Since Vegas lines are year-in, year-out the most accurate prediction mechanisms available, this is heartening. Perhaps too heartening. BTW: Jamie and his merry band of degenerate gamblers cover all manner of things at Just Cover.]

 

Before getting into the meat of what will be a quick hitting MGoDiary, let's clean some things up from last week.

I might make a decent oddsmaker after all. Those four prop bets I came up with for the ND/Michigan game sure did confound people. Only one person did better than 2-2 and that was MGoTim, who checked in a 3-1. I guess it pays to be an insider. Not sure what his prize should be. Maybe a day off from cat chasing duties? Or a day where his posts get to breathe for two hours without a post on top of it? He certainly doesnt need the MGoPoints. In that same diary, I listed all the actual props that sports books had up for the Notre Dame game. A few brave souls put their necks out on the line and picked each one. And, you know what? They did pretty well, considering the number of props out there. Special kudos goes to Clarence Beeks who went 10-2-1 on his prop selections. Somebody get that man to Vegas, STAT. But, it's really no surprise. He's a Pittsburgh Steeler fan, so you know he is sharp as a tack. Nice work, Mr Beeks. Now, how are those Orange futures looking? Please advice.

Also, over at the JCB, the Pick-4 game for the week is up. Check it out. If you havent played yet, no worries. Jump on in. Once Ocotber rolls around there will be more points available to allow you to catch up, so dont worry if you're behind and just starting the contest this week. We'vre having a fun time with this and the more, the merrier.

On to the UMASS game. A lot of folks dont realize that the oddsmakers do release lines for FCS vs FBS teams. Some places will even have full betting boards for the FCS vs FCS games throughout the year. Just about everyone of them will have lines for all the levels of college football playoffs, too. That comes in handy every year when I wake up shaking that second Saturday of December with no bigtime college football to bet on anymore. Dont think for a second that that's the deepest we can go into depravity. I've noticed that 5dimes is also offering high school football lines for the bigger games across the country. No way, will I ever bet those. That's just being a degenerate. No way. Well, maybe if its the only game on TV. Or if there's some value in the line, maybe. But, you have to be a pretty dark soul to go this route. Completely unrelated, does anyone know who is starting for Hoover, Alabama at quarterback?

As of now, Michigan is favored tomorrow by 28.5 points. It's been a weird week tracking this line. At the start of the week, 5dimes listed it as just Michigan -21. That must have been a misprint, or they got hammered with so much Michigan money, because they took the line off the board for several hours and by Tuesday afternoon the line had ballooned up to 29.5 points. It crept to 30.5 by that evening. The line has been steadily coming down ever since. It was lodged at Michigan -27.5 for a couple of days before settling in at the 28.5 number this morning, with an Over/Under total of 51.5. THAT looks enticing. Two out of every three games in the Rodriguez Era have gone over the total, but none have this year. Should we play the percentages and expect an Over? With that out of the way, let me quickly rattle of the mock props for tomorrow.

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5

Try your hand at those.

I intended on waxing philosophical all the Denard Show, but what more can I really add at this point? For the second straight week, he produced a game and some plays I've never really seen from a Michigan QB before in the 30+ years I've been watching. Damn impressive so far. I say we sit back and enjoy the show. And work on our own dreads.

His emergence has also had a major impact on the odds for Michigan. The most notable being the fact that Denard is now one of the betting favorites to win the Heisman Trophy. Terrelle Pryor is technically the chalk at 3.5 to 1, but Denard is the second favorite bet at 4.5 to 1. Not bad for somebody who wasnt even on the board ten days ago. Kellen Moore is 8/1 and a series of players including Cam Newton, Mark Ingram and Ryan Mallett are at 10/1. Tate Forcier, by the way, remains on the board as a 30/1 shot to win the trophy. FACT: THAT MIGHT BE A SUCKER BET.

Michigan has also shifted from a 100/1 shot to win the BCS National Title all the way down to 30/1. That's a pretty big swing. We've also seen the pointspreads for Michigan's Big 10 showdowns start moving in the Wolverine's favor, some rather significantly. Here are where the Big 10 lines stand right now.

  • Michigan -5.5 vs MSU (Line was UM -3 over the summer)
  • Michigan pick 'em vs Iowa (Line was UM +3 over the summer)
  • Michigan +3 at Penn State (Line was +10 over the summer.......oh, to have a +10 ticket in our pockets right now)
  • Michigan -1 vs Wisconsin (Line was Michigan +3 over the summer)
  • Michigan +13.5 at OSU (Line was Michigan +15.5 over the summer)

Denard is having an impact. The public wants to bet Michigan again. The average line movement since the season started is 3.7 points in Michigan's favor. I fully expect the MSU line to be -7 come game day. The others will continue to move towards Michigan. If you want to play the Homer card and bet Michigan, get these lines now before more value gets sucked out of it. For the the first time in the Rodirguez Era in Ann Arbor, bookies are adjusting lines to stem the amount of money rolling in on the Wolverines. That's progress, babby! And, it's a great thing to see.

[Ed: I cannot believe Michigan is actually a favorite against Wisconsin. The betting public now has Michigan at 8-2-1 on the season, which will be a neat trick.]

Comments

Jammer

September 17th, 2010 at 1:35 PM ^

Devin/Tate - Under - will hand off a lot and may not play until 2nd half, I'm thinking

Vinopal - Under - thinking the ball/ballcarrier rarely reaches his level

Toussaint - Under - no reason, just haven't seen him play yet.

Frosh Int. - Yes - Go Cam Gordon, I have faith in you.

Gallon yds - Over - would like to see a few nice long punt returns

slipknot

September 17th, 2010 at 1:38 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5  Under

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5  Under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5  Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No  Yes

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 Over

O/U total score 51.5:  I'll take over...final score: 45-13

MgoBLUEfromDC

September 17th, 2010 at 1:45 PM ^

I have UNDER for all of them and a NO on the freshman interception (am I lame for picking negative on everything?  I see lots of runs for our RBs but no huge game for any one (but decent all around).

InRodWeTrust333

September 17th, 2010 at 2:03 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 Over

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 Under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 Over

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 Under

CapedBlueSader

September 17th, 2010 at 2:06 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 Under

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 Under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No Yes

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 Over

Enjoy Life

September 17th, 2010 at 2:07 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 Over

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 Over

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No Yes

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 Over

Roger, over and out!

IPKarma

September 17th, 2010 at 2:11 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5

under

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5

under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5

under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No

no

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5

under

MGoAndy

September 17th, 2010 at 2:14 PM ^

 

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 OVER

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5  UNDER

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5  UNDER

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No  YES

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5  UNDER

 

As an added bit of fun, I think it will be Talbott with the frosh INT.  BOLD.

mendrygal

September 17th, 2010 at 2:14 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 Under

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 Under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 Under

Scotthany

September 17th, 2010 at 2:18 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5  I'll take the under, but more so from running back production and lesser playing time.  C'mon Jack Kennedy!

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5  Tough one here.  Again, I'll take the under.

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5  I'll take the over.  Yes, optimism for once.

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No  No.  No clear reasoning on this one.  Why not?

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5  I'll again take the under.  And I just realized how pessimistic I've been through this whole thing.  Knowing me, figures.

Big T

September 17th, 2010 at 2:21 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: under

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: no

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: under

BillyShears

September 17th, 2010 at 2:23 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: Under 250.5

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: Under 5.5

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: Under 80.5

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: Under 120.5

TheOracle6

September 17th, 2010 at 2:25 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5  - Over

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5   -   Over

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5    - Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No  - No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5    - Under

JonSobel

September 17th, 2010 at 2:25 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: Over 250.5

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: Under 5.5

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: Over 80.5

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: Under 120.5

bouje

September 17th, 2010 at 2:33 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 Under
<br>
<br>Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 Over
<br>
<br>Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 Over
<br>
<br>Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No Yes
<br>
<br>Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 Over
<br>
<br>O/U total score 51.5: Over

Feat of Clay

September 17th, 2010 at 2:35 PM ^

While you have to be a complete idiot (or deluded optimist) to bet on U-M winning the national championship, and I don't consider myself either....  I confess I put $10 on that action when U-M's odds were loooong.  So c'mon, team. 

Sadly, I loved long odds so much I also bet on the Lions to win the NFC championship.

jusgre

September 17th, 2010 at 2:35 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: Under 250.5

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: Under 5.5

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: Over 80.5

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: Under 120.5

mbee1

September 17th, 2010 at 2:37 PM ^

never with the heart...

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 Under

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 Under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 Under

dmonet

September 17th, 2010 at 2:40 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 --- UNDER

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 --- UNDER

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 --- OVER

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No --- YES

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 --- UNDER

StevieY19

September 17th, 2010 at 2:45 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: Under

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: Over

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: Under

Vinopal!

markjko.rn

September 17th, 2010 at 2:45 PM ^

 

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 -OVER

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 -OVER

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 -OVER

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No -No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 -UNDER

BlueintheLou

September 17th, 2010 at 3:04 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5

-Over

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5

-Under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5

-Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No

-Yes

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5

-Over

BraveWolverine730

September 17th, 2010 at 3:13 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards:   O/U 250.5 

over

Ray Vinopal. total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5

over

Fitzgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5

under

Will a Michigan Freshman Intercept a pass: Y/N

No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5

Under

bml

September 17th, 2010 at 3:14 PM ^

 

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5. OVER

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5. UNDER

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5. UNDER

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No. NO

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5. UNDER

sjastrz

September 17th, 2010 at 3:15 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 Under

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 Under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 Under

djean02

September 17th, 2010 at 3:22 PM ^

yes, the oddsmakers are starting to "believe" in Michigan, but let's not get too confident yet.  The defense needs to make some big improvements oevr the next 3-4 weeks..  If we can get to 6-0 that would be a great sign.

Winged_Knight

September 17th, 2010 at 3:26 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5 - Under

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5 - Under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5 - Over

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No - No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 - Under

Blumanji

September 17th, 2010 at 3:36 PM ^

Thanks for the Hoover, Alabama comment (Even though it was related to degenerate gambling). I now live in Hoover after 27+ years in Michigan. Makes me feel closer to home despite being in Iron Bowl country. This SEC speed is killing me.

Kevin_blue

September 17th, 2010 at 3:40 PM ^

 

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5--Under, but barely.

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5--Under, no more than three

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5--Under, 50ish seems reasonable.

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No--Yup.  Watch out for Talbott

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5--Under, sorry JG.

 

I'll take Umass with the points and over on the 51.5

SD Go Blue

September 17th, 2010 at 3:51 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5

Over

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5

Under

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5

Under

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No

Yes

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5

Over

aroberts36

September 17th, 2010 at 4:08 PM ^

 

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5  Over

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5  Under - They will give Cam the practice

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5  Over

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No  No

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5 Over

O/U total score 51.5:  Over and take Michigan giving the points

Drill

September 17th, 2010 at 6:14 PM ^

Tate Forcier/Devin Gardner, total combined yards: O/U 250.5

Over.

Ray Vinopal, total combined tackles, INTs, PBUs: O/U 5.5

Under.

Fiztgerald Toussiant, total rushing yards: O/U 80.5

Under.

Will A Michigan Freshman Intercept A Pass: Yes/No

Yes.

Jeremy Gallon, total yards, including returns: O/U 120.5

Under.

SanDiegoWolverine

September 17th, 2010 at 7:28 PM ^

 

Gardner/Robinson - UNDER

Vinopal - UNDER

Toussaint - UNDER

Frosh INT - NO(if this includes redshirt Frosh YES)

Gallon - Under

 

1.  Michigan will run the ball more in the second half so I see closer to 200 yards. Also this game won't be quite the blowout that DSU was last year so Denard might even get a series or two in the second half.

2. Cam needs the work and might be one of the last guys to leave

3. Toussaint has so many nagging injuries I don't expect to see him more than 5-7 times carrying the ball.

4. Frosh won't gamble and will have to get lucky with a really bad throw.

5. Don't think Gallon will see the field enough. 

How about his prop bet: Jibrel over/under on sacks 1 1/2?