This is my weekly feature to look back at summer previews, get egg on my face, look over what Michigan did, and then project the rest of the year as we get more real time data.  Last week's taking stock report can be found here.

Prelude:  I did season previews on most UM opponents - I skipped UNLV, Indiana and Rutgers out of boredom, and OSU out of fear.  The rest are below

• BYU, Oregon State, Minnesota, Northwestern,
• Penn State, Maryland, Utah, MSU

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Dear readers - the deeper we go into the season the more off my summer views will become as naturally teams will evolve from what we thought they would be and injuries happen.

(what is not shown is the smoke is coming from smoldering tires)

So I didn't do summer previews on Rutgers or Indiana as I thought they'd be bad.  Rutgers is horrid.  Indiana is just Big 10 bad (0-5) but has enough offense to scare people.

Therefore, no summer evaluation of Rutgers but last week I wrote this based on data up to that point:

Rutgers has been imploded by Wisconsin and OSU back to back.  Carroo is the entire offense and even if he is back won't be 100%.  As I said above, if we give up 20+ to Rutgers I will have to consider the defense a bit fraudulent and feasting on 4 really bad QBs early in the year in (a) Seth Collins, (b) Caleb Rowe, (c) the backup at UNLV after Decker got hurt, and a (d) mediocre Thorson at Northwestern.   We cannot make Laviano look like Gary Nova. 

Rutgers defense is also putrid giving up nearly a zillion points to OSU and Wisconsin.  Now with that said Clement was back for Wisconsin and we sure don't have a Clement and OSU is OSU but damnit I guess Peppers or something.   This is by far the easiest game left of the 4 and at home so UM needs to find their form going into the final stretch of 3 games.  It will be interesting to see how things shake out at QB - I am sure a healthy Jake will get the start but will he be healthy?  And if not, how does Speight look with a full week of 1st team reps and confidence?  And can we get back to the defense of pre MSU at least for a week please?

Laviano did not look like Gary Nova.  Defense plays well but gave up some points but special teams was a bit off and 7 of those pts were directly on a kickoff return and I'd claim another 3 were due to special teams issues.  So I'll put 6 on the defense which is ok.  OSU had a shutout vs Rutgers until 4 minutes remained in game and surely a bunch of 2nd stringers in (with Carroo playing in NJ) so on that measuring stick I'd have liked to see a bit better but it's good enough.  Jake did look like Gary Nova - which in this case was good.

A Look at Michigan

It was a comforting game in that Michigan did what you are supposed to do to very bad teams.  After 2 sub 300 yard outings vs good (not great) defenses, Rutgers D came in on a silver platter.  This was probably Rudock's best game at Michigan and only his second positive rating via Pro Football Focus this year, so let's do that again 3 more times (or 4 with the bowl) (or 5 with a championship game and a bowl) (or 6... well...)  Yes you have to account for Rutgers S&P ranked 116th defense ....which is 122nd vs the pass but beggers can't be choosers.

Jake was 18/25 for 337 yds with 2 TD and 0 INT.  More importantly in the eye test he was zinging it out there with some nice velocity on intermediate passes - and a lot better accuracy.  In fact I think the WRs had 2 drops which hurt his stats. It's been difficult to tell how good our WRs hands are this year because they get so few opportunities so that was a minor ding but unlike prior drops these were mostly pretty catchable balls if I recall correct.  The screen game was beautiful - obviously something was seen in film and unlike the prior staff, plans were made to exploit said holes.  Pass protect was good vs a team that rarely gets to the passer.

Pass distribution was 5 to TEs, 7 to WRs, 5 to RBs/FBs, and 1 to Peppers.  That's a very Harbaugh @ Stanfordish distribution.

The run game continues to be meh.  The stats say it was ok 42 carries for 150 yards. But that's a measly 3.6 per against the S&P 108th ranked rush defense.  On a day the safeties actually had to play intermediate passes and hence  could not stack into the box.  So it's not that good - but a consistent issue all year at this point.  Smith did look the most healthy he has in a few weeks so let's hope that continues as we need a Thunder and Lightning mix vs PSU and OSU.  The Drake was pretty pedestrian this game with 7 carries for 27 yds.  Houmatime was fun to watch and at this point he seems to have passed the human victory cigar in the rotation as a RB??!  I continue to see this team struggling to run on a consistent basis vs the PSU and OSU DLs - esp if bad Jake returns.

This game helped move UM up from 98th to 87th in total offense via NCAA (which ranks offenses only on total yards).  Advanced stats look more kindly on UM but its generally a 50ish type of offense in that regard.   The staff continues to make do with what they have and the addition of Peppers surely helps - his TD run was a "make something out of nothing" play that only truly elite playmakers make.

Defensively there was a lot of this:

To the untrained eye Morgan had a nice bounce back game, Wormley was causing all sorts of havoc (2 sacks, 2 TFL), Peppers seems to be improving in pass coverage, and Lewis was Lewis.  Jarrod Wilson had a nice pick.  PFF liked Taco Charlton's game - stats show he had 3 tackles and 1 TFL.  Glasgow was dinged and sat out much of the 2nd half and Hurst was quiet. 

Rutgers only had 225 yds and less than 100 thru the air.  The one big bust this game was a 54 yd run so take that out and Rutgers only had 171 yards which is very good.  They did get 17 first downs which is more than you want but were only 3/13 on third.  

There was a bad kickoff return from Grant who already had 2 TDs this year so that was not pleasing.  But in general the special teams continue to give UM's offense short fields. UM's TD drives were:

• 46 yds
• 58 yds
• 60 yds
• 43 yds
• 40 yds
• 60 yds

That's an average of 51 yds i.e. UM started those 6 drives on average at their own 49 yard line.   This has been a theme the past month.

DEGREE OF DIFFICULTY (DOD!) RANKINGS

Basing games on WHEN they are played and WHERE this was my general view on degree of difficulty for each opponent coming into the year and adjusted weekly,    Again this is not how good the team is in a vacuum but how they match up vs UM.

Stock Up

Nah

Stock Down

Not this time bro

Stock Flat

• OSU - OSU sort of sleepwalked thru a game with Minnesota.  But they are nowhere near the offense with Cardale that they are with JT.   I hope JT celebrates the victory over MSU with a lot of drinks and is found with an open container immediately after with Joey Bosa and Darron Lee.   OSU goes to Ill next week - a team that strangely has given them trouble the past 3-4 years if I recall correctly.  Maybe they will look ahead to MSU and make it a closer game than it should be.  OSU D continues to look pretty solid and absolutely mauled MN's run game (33 yds total - even if you take out Leidner's -13 it was only 46 yds)
• Utah - Utah had a tricky road game vs Washington and prevailed even with Travis Wilson channeling Jake Rudock for most of 2015 (12/25, 155 yds, 6.2 ypa, 1 INT).  Booker continues to be used like Lorenzo White circa 1987 to the tune of 150 yds.  (younger people ....google Lorenzo White)  On a side note future New England Patriot and true freshman Britain Covey continues to play well with another 5 catches and him doing well v Peppers in week 1 makes more sense by the week.
• MSU  - Simpsons-haha.gif.   After playing with fire all year and selling many souls Dantonio finally ran out of humans to sacrifice.  Truthfully this should be a 3 loss team with Vernon Adams completing a wide open pass, Blake handling a punt, and then Neb doing Neb.  You could make a case for the Rutgers and Purdue games as well.  The pass defense remains a tire fire and any teams with legit passing QBs have a chance.  Unfortunately Maryland is not one of those teams next week.  Cook was off in the 1st quarter but again carried the team the last 3 quarters.  But he can't play defensive back.
• BYU -  BYU barely beat the Flying Borges' this week in an uninspiring performance.  The rushing game was horrendous - 36 yds on 25 carries.  BYU is sort of a team that should be ranked 35th to 40th - advanced stats also support this.  But they are 7-2 without many tests on their schedule.
• PSU - Yes PSU lost to NW but it ended up being a last second game and NW was doing its best to derp it away.  I have come to the conclusion that home field is worth more than 3 pts in college (v the NFL) and I expect a home PSU to be a lot better than a road PSU.  Hack can do enough to cause issues and PSU DL continues to be a worry.  Hack was 21/40 but his 5.1 ypa was Joey Harrington-ish (Lions version)  That said he was over 9.0 ypa for 3 weeks in a row.  Saquon Barkley had a good game vs a decent rush D.
• Minnesota - Leidner had a pretty decent game (27/44) but his ypa was down in the 6 range so his ability to deliver arm punts was not quite as good as with UM.  He still threw for nearly 300 as Minn was behind the whole night and OSU took away the run completely.   This is a well coached team who is coaching up a lot of 3 star talent but aside from the seconday lacks playmakers.
• Indiana-  Indiana continues to be a hard luck team.  If you squint your eyes they have lost 3 times to teams with a combined 2 losses (err 1 loss damnit) in Iowa, OSU and MSU.  Unfortunately when you open your eyes you see a team that game up 55 to Rutgers.  Indiana seems to be a pretty good team for 50-52 minutes a game.  Then they revert to Indiana.  Worry is Nebraska type luck in that fortune has not been there way of late and at some point that turns around.  Hopefully not next week.  Sudfeld was worse than usual this game - 16/37 and a measly 4.9 ypa ...way below his average.  Jordan Howard looked like the Howard of early in the season with 174 yds on 22 carries.  Going to be very important for UM defense to contain this guy to 80ish yards.  
• Northwestern - NW has a nice record but it strikes me as a bit fraudulent.  You could see that vs Iowa and Michigan.  The Duke win is looking worse by the week and the Stanford win at this point you chalk up to the crazy stuff of week 1.  They looked decently in control v PSU but then began to remember they were Northwestern.  Oliver came in for Thorson and was just as mediocre.  Saving grace was Justin Jackson who has looked bad most of the year after a great year last year - 186 yds.  To me this is a fringe top 30ish team that benefits from playing in an awful division.
• Maryland  - Maryland is a bad team with bad QBs but gave Wisconsin a bit to think about at least.  Corey Clement was out again after a big game last week and Wisc turned to uhh.... star linebacker Joe Schobert.  Well he had 1 run for 57 yds on a fake punt as he tried to channel Peppers. MD also scored on an onside kick.   This is a bad team with 2 wins and is only saved by the array of horrid teams below them - at least Maryland has one half decent unit (defense).  This summer I had projected Maryland to struggles to get to 5 wins - they have 2 right now.
• Rutgers  - They are a bad team.  A very bad team.
• Oregon State - My preseason prediction was OSU would be the worst P12 team and they are doing nothing to make me look bad.  OSU lost 41-0 to UCLA.  Rosen crushed OSU's D (22/33 for 333) I am seriously considering moving UNLV ahead of them.  At least UNLV has a QB when healthy.  OSU finishes with @Cal, Wash, @Ore - the path to 0-9 in conf is clear.
• UNLV - UNLV beat Hawaii 41-21 and now has 3 wins. Blake Decker was healthy and the team is different when he plays. 

Overall

Last week we said get this easy game out of the way and then things toughen up to finish off the season.  So mission accomplished.  7-2 with 3 to go has UM in a nice position for a very nice season in year 1. 

UM is better than Indiana and PSU but those are both road games and of the 6 halves we've played on the road this year I'd say we've played well in about 2 of them (2nd half Maryland, and maybe 30 of the 60 minutes vs Minn)  Jake in particular has really struggled on the road.

2-1 would be great from here; 1-2 not so great, 3-0 fantastic.   I am actually expecting 3 nail biters here on out.

Next Week

Most of the talk will probably focus on Sudfeld but Jordan Howard could be next week's X factor.  UM has a strong rush D but this might be the best RB (yes better than Booker) we face until OSU.  He has been hurt for the past month but looks to be rounding back into form.  It's ok to give up yards but the gash yards for 20-25 is where we need to be careful.  Also, Lewis won't be able to focus on a "top WR" as was possible with some other teams as Indiana spreads it around pretty well.   Clark and Stribling need to show up and make plays.  A good pash rush to get to Sudfeld would also help.

Indian's pass D is 66th in S&P+ so not nearly as bad as Rutgers but you can throw on them.  Their rush D is near 100 so getting some yards on the ground and keeping the TOP high would be good things to do.   Need to see a quality game from Jake on the road as well.  UM will need to score points as Indiana will get  yards and points.  I expect a quite tricky game as Iowa and Michigan are actually quite similar in advanced stats (Iowa not playing two top 15 teams however) and hopefully UM pulls away in the last 10 minutes as has been Indiana's MO this year vs quality teams.