Onward To The Finish: A Brief Stats Update

Submitted by LSAClassOf2000 on February 26th, 2014 at 8:43 AM

ONWARD TO THE FINISH

Having dispatched Michigan State on Sunday, we find ourselves with four games to go and, at least by the estimates, a rather good chance of compiling a good record in those remaining games. As a matter of fact, using the updated Massey numbers from this past Monday, the estimated chances of winning three of the last four, or indeed, winning out are not bad at all:

 photo 26Feb_RecordProbMich_zps53e6f376.png

With deference to our most recent win, here are MSU’s chances at various win totals in their final games in the conference schedule:

 photo 26Feb_RecordProbMSU_zps46e89942.png

SUMMARY DATA:

Here are the summary averages, current as of the end of the game on Sunday:

 

MICHIGAN

OPPONENT

Field Goal %

48.87%

45.71%

Three Point %

40.73%

33.40%

Effective FG%

56.49%

51.33%

Free Throw %

76.89%

71.66%

Off. Rebound %

26.81%

30.83%

Def. Rebound %

69.17%

73.19%

Assist / Turnover Ratio

1.61

1.55

True Shooting %

61.21%

54.67%

Free Throw Rate

37.71%

29.85%

Possessions

60.04

60.64

Points / Possession

1.20

1.10

Turnover %

14.18%

14.37%

As seems to be typical, the greatest advantage that we maintain is that we are the better shooting team and we seem to get to the line a little more than our opponents on an average day. Our turnover percentage seems to be on par with our opponents, although Sunday’s very low in-game percentage definitely helped drive down the average nearly 0.5%, which is rather significant. The defensive efficiency is over 1.00 points per possession, but again, we seem to mitigate this by sheer accuracy on our own end.

FOUR FACTORS:

The four factors as they have looked in the last five games are below. This is somewhat significant as this, I believe, is the first time two losses have been in the charted stretch here.

 photo 26Feb_eFG_zpsc3a1c25a.png  photo 26Feb_OREB_zpsc0ed4b35.png  photo 26Feb_FTR_zps628469db.png  photo 26Feb_TOV_zps62780d54.png

Most significant here is the steady decline in turnover rate over the last five games. This is definitely something that concerned many on this board, and although we may not top the Michigan State performance for discipline with the ball, there is still a vast difference between keeping this figure closer to 10% as opposed to 20%.

SOME OTHER STATS:

Other statistics of note over the last five games –

 photo 26Feb_TSP_zps9e011477.png  photo 26Feb_PPP_zpscb6d9c04.png  photo 26Feb_ATRatio_zps81492dda.png  photo 26Feb_DREB_zpsd161079f.png

(No cat photo for now as the Internet here is acting up)

Comments

Yo_Blue

February 26th, 2014 at 10:09 AM ^

I think there is a lot to like (offensively) about the 2013-24 team.  I'm pleasantly surprised and delighted with free throw shooting.  There have not been any cases I recall where we have had the on-nos.  I still want to cry thinking about the end of the Indiana regular season-ender last year where we could have put it away twice from the line.

Coach B has done a fine job of shuffling his personnel at the end of games when the obvious fouls are coming.  He puts his highest percentage guys on the floor and plays the offense / defense rotations masterfully.  Attention to detail - it works!

Turnovers have been another great surprise given that the POY PG is no longer on the team.

ish

February 26th, 2014 at 12:27 PM ^

putting together the probabilities for remaining wins for both us and MSU, what is the chance that we have the same or greater number of wins at the end of the year?  and that such number is equal to or greater than 13, the maximum number of wins wisconsin can have.

LSAClassOf2000

February 26th, 2014 at 1:24 PM ^

I probably should have used cumulative record instead of the number of wins to illustrate this as it is a good question. Essentially, we would need to win two more games to achieve a minimum of 13-5 in the conference, the cumulative odds of that being 97.39% (82.05% for doing better than this). For MSU, which only has three games left, their ceiling is 14-4, and for them to achieve a minimum of 13-5, the cumulative odds are 65.86% (18.92% for a better record than 13-5). We're in rather good shape right now when it comes to winning the conference, I would say. 

michelin

February 27th, 2014 at 10:07 AM ^

my calculations showed that the overall chance of a UM conf title- is at least 81%.*

 

*Calculations (where M and MSU and W represent the number of wins for each team and assuming independence between the outcomes of games for each team)

P(M finishes higher than MSU) =P(M=4) P(MSU=3) + P (M=3 or M=4) P(MSU=2) + (1-P(M=0 or M=1)) P(MSU=1) + (1-P(M=0)) P(MSU=0) = .41 (.19) + (.41+.41-.41(.41))(.47) + (1-(.02+.001-(.002(.001))  (.3) + (1-.001) (.04)

=.08 + .31 + .29 + .04  = .72

P(M finishes tied with MSU) =  .41(.19) +.41 (.47)) +.15 (.3) + .002 (.04) =.16

P(M beats MSU or ties MSU)) = .72 + .16 = .88.

So, the chances of MSU beating us is 12%.

Another team could beat both UM and MSU, but that chance is exceedingly small for every team but Wisconsin—which has no greater than a .08 chance of doing so.  That is,

P (Wisconsin finishes higher than UM) = P (W=4) P((M=0 or M=1) + P(W=3) P(M=0) = P(W=4) .2 + (pW=3) (.001)

If we assume the chances of W winning four are no greater than the chances of UM doing so, then

P(W finishes higher than UM) < (or =)  .41(.2) = .08.

So the chance of Wisc beating us is no greater than 8%

That leaves UM with a chance of winning the title vs either MSU or W at least =

(1-P(W>UM or MSU>UM)) = 1- ((.12+.08)-.12(.08)) = .81 or 81%