By The Numbers - Big 10 Ranks - Week 10

Submitted by The Mathlete on November 12th, 2009 at 6:58 PM
All numbers are points per game vs an average team. They are adjusted for strength of opponent.  No 1AA games or stats are included.  For more detailed questions on how the numbers come about, click here.

Expected Points - Offense

Offense G Exp Pts Act Pts Diff Drives
Wisconsin 8 22.2 26.5 4.3 10.8
Penn State 9 21.2 25.3 4.2 10.7
Michigan State 9 23.5 26.6 3.1 11.8
Purdue 10 23.2 25.4 2.2 11.8
Michigan 9 24.9 26.9 2.0 12.1
Ohio State 10 23.2 24.5 1.4 10.8
Northwestern 9 21.9 20.7 -1.3 11.7
Minnesota 10 21.9 20.6 -1.3 10.9
Iowa 9 24.3 22.6 -1.8 11.7
Indiana 9 25.3 21.9 -3.4 11.7
Illinois 8 19.8 16.0 -3.8 10.8

Wisconsin is playing at a slower pace and therefor not generating all of the opportunities are, but in terms of out-gaining expectations, they are #1 in the Big 10 at +4.3 on the season.  Michigan is still leading in expected points per game, due in large part to their Big 10 leading 12.1 possessions per game.

Expected Points - Defense

Defense G Exp Pts Act Pts Diff Drives
Penn State 9 21.5 9.8 -11.7 10.8
Ohio State 10 20.7 10.1 -10.6 11.3
Iowa 9 21.8 12.6 -9.2 11.3
Wisconsin 8 20.0 20.0 0.0 10.6
Northwestern 9 23.3 23.7 0.4 11.8
Purdue 10 25.3 25.7 0.5 11.9
Michigan State 9 23.1 24.7 1.6 11.6
Michigan 9 26.0 27.9 1.9 12.7
Minnesota 10 21.4 24.6 3.2 10.8
Illinois 8 21.0 25.9 4.8 10.4
Indiana 9 21.1 26.9 5.8 11.0

This is the ugly flip side to the offense's high pace, high drive count strategy.  Lots of points faced by the defense.  Michigan's defense is forcing more points and more drives than any other Big 10 team.  The high expected points number is not solely due to the drive quantity either.  Michigan's defense is killed on field position.  Michigan, on average, faces a drive worth 2.05 points, 4% higher than the Big 10 average and second highest overall.  The difference between Michigan and Ohio State (the lowest per drive average start at 1.83) is worth nearly a field goal a game and almost 35 points over the course of the season.  If Michigan and Ohio State had identical defenses and faced the same number of drives against the same teams, Michigan would give up nearly 35 points more over the course of the season because of the field position difference.

Total Offense

Offense G Value Rush Pass Yards
Penn State 9 5.3 0.8 4.5 388
Wisconsin 8 3.6 3.3 0.3 398
Michigan 9 3.1 2.5 0.6 366
Michigan State 9 3.0 -1.4 4.4 407
Ohio State 10 0.8 1.0 -0.3 377
Minnesota 10 0.7 0.6 0.2 310
Purdue 10 0.5 0.0 0.5 382
Indiana 9 -1.9 -1.7 -0.2 350
Illinois 8 -2.1 0.8 -3.0 346
Northwestern 9 -3.0 -3.6 0.6 367
Iowa 9 -5.0 -2.4 -2.6 354

This weeks matchup pits 2 of the top 3 offenses in the Big 10.  Both teams are led by the clear cut top two rush offenses in the conference while featuring solid but not spectacular (the Big 10's specialty this year) passing games.

Total Defense

Defense G Value Rush Pass Yards
Iowa 9 11.0 2.0 9.0 277
Ohio State 10 10.3 2.2 8.1 251
Penn State 9 9.0 3.7 5.3 272
Wisconsin 8 2.8 3.0 -0.2 319
Purdue 10 0.3 -1.2 1.5 371
Michigan State 9 -0.7 2.1 -2.7 353
Michigan 9 -1.3 -2.4 1.1 414
Minnesota 10 -2.9 0.7 -3.6 398
Northwestern 9 -3.0 1.0 -4.0 358
Illinois 8 -3.6 -2.7 -0.9 395
Indiana 9 -4.4 -2.3 -2.1 416

Wisconsin comes into Saturday's a distant fourth in the Big 10 in total defense while Michigan sits in the middle of the pack.  Iowa, Ohio St and Penn St continue to dominate the overall defense ranks, all three sit in the top 12 nationally.

Special Teams

Team G Total Kick KO KR Punt PR
Ohio State 10 1.4 -0.1 1.1 0.3 0.4 -0.2
Michigan 9 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.4 0.7 -0.7
Minnesota 10 0.9 0.2 -0.6 0.4 0.7 0.1
Michigan State 9 0.6 0.3 -0.3 0.5 -0.1 0.2
Iowa 9 0.3 0.2 0.3 -0.2 0.4 -0.4
Wisconsin 8 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 -0.3 0.6 -0.7
Penn State 9 -0.9 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.9 -0.2
Indiana 9 -1.1 -1.1 -0.2 0.9 -1.0 0.2
Illinois 8 -1.8 -1.1 0.6 -0.3 -0.3 -0.7
Purdue 10 -1.8 0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -1.2 -0.6
Northwestern 9 -2.3 0.6 -0.7 -1.1 -0.5 -0.5

Michigan comes in second just behind Ohio State in the overall special teams ratings.  Michigan continues its strong showing in a number of categories with top 30 rankings in Punt (9), Kick (16) and Punt Return (32).

Turnovers

Team Fum Lost Int Thrown Fum Forced Passes Int Total
Ohio State -12 -25 22 48 32
Indiana -13 -35 33 38 23
Minnesota -27 -36 44 32 14
Northwestern -30 -24 31 33 9
Iowa -14 -58 22 57 7
Michigan State -24 -21 24 21 0
Penn State -11 -20 13 18 -1
Wisconsin -18 -34 17 32 -4
Illinois -22 -27 22 10 -16
Michigan -38 -22 7 28 -24
Purdue -37 -47 37 20 -27

Fumbles. Fumbles. Fumbles.  Michigan is in the middle of the pack on defensive interceptions and one Denard Robinson possession away from leading the Big 10 in fewest interceptions thrown (as measured in value lost).  The turnover problem has nothing to do with interceptions and everything to do with fumbles.  It appears that we have upset the Angry Michigan Hating Fumble God.  There are only two Angry Fumble Gods who hate their teams worse than Michigan this season, Nevada and ironically enough, West Virginia, who never had a fumbling problem when RR was there.  Michigan is 114th and 113th nationally in fumbles and fumbles recovered. 

Conference Rankings

Conf Total Offense Defense ST Pen Yards D Yards
SEC 6.4 2.3 3.9 0.3 -0.2 370 337
Big XII 4.8 1.4 3.0 0.5 -0.2 385 348
PAC 10 3.9 1.7 1.7 0.6 -0.2 379 372
ACC 2.6 1.2 1.7 -0.5 0.3 360 354
Big East 2.5 1.4 1.5 -0.4 -0.1 373 361
Big Ten 1.7 0.3 1.8 -0.3 -0.1 368 350
Mtn West -0.2 -0.8 0.3 0.2 0.2 359 358
WAC -3.3 -1.0 -2.0 -0.3 0.0 397 405
Ind -5.5 0.2 -5.4 -0.9 1.2 354 388
C USA -6.3 -1.5 -4.0 -0.7 -0.2 377 419
MAC -6.9 -2.7 -2.5 -1.7 0.0 346 380
Sun Belt -8.4 -3.3 -4.3 -1.0 0.2 385 413

The Big 10 has established its home at the bottom of the BCS auto qualifiers this year, and its not even close with 5th.  The problems can all be attributed to the offenses, as the Big 10 is almost a full point behind the next lowest Big 6 conference.  The defense looks a bit better as the 1.8 average ratings is good for third behind the two dominant conferences, the SEC and Big XII.

Comments

bigmc6000

November 13th, 2009 at 11:13 AM ^

I know it's all statistical but, man, if you watch the Big 12 (outside of Texas) there's no way in the world you'd think they are better than the big ten in anything. I'd say their offenses are so poor that the D looks good but the numbers show that both a pretty good - does not compute. For me at least this is where things get a little fuzzy (comparing conferences). We can look at all the individual numbers and Big Ten numbers and they all seem to make sense but the conference numbers just don't even out to what we see with our eyes.

I don't mean any of that as an insult to the system or anything I'm just not sure why all the Big Ten numbers seem to pass the eye ball test but when you rank the conferences it doesn't.

Thanks for the hard work!

The Mathlete

November 13th, 2009 at 12:45 PM ^

Looking at the numbers a little more closely and I think the thing the Big XII has done this year is that they've been solid in all three phases. Last year they were an all offense conference but this year they have stepped up the game in the other phases as well, even if their offenses have been average by Big 6 standards. As for the defensive numbers, the Big XII has had a number of very good defensive non-conference games. Oklahoma allowed 13 points to BYU, 21 to Miami and shutout a decent Tulsa team. Texas Tech went on the road and held a very potent Houston team to its lowest total of the season (including 2 other games vs BCS conference schools). A mediocre Missouri team slowed Nevada's rushing attack and Nebraska severely limited Virginia Tech. Overall, the Big XII has only posted 6 non-conference game of -5 or worse on defense, all but one from lower tier teams.