By The Numbers - Big 10 Ranks

Submitted by The Mathlete on
Big 10 Ranks in key categories. Rush/Pass stats are opponent adjusted, expected points by drive start is not. Sacks are included in these numbers as pass plays. For all numbers, 0 is average across 120 FBS schools against FBS opponents.  Special teams numbers are all per play (totals skew too much based on usage) with exception of kicking, which is given on a per game basis. As always, let me know what else you would like to see on this and I will add to future weeks.

Offense - Season+
Off G Value Yards
Michigan 4 8.80 421
Michigan State 3 6.13 415
Penn State 4 5.12 375
Iowa 3 3.52 354
Purdue 4 0.79 417
Ohio State 4 0.60 369
Northwestern 3 0.42 408
Minnesota 4 -0.23 323
Wisconsin 3 -2.27 428
Indiana 3 -3.84 395
Illinois 2 -9.84 239


Offense - Rush+
Team G Total VPP Yards TD
Michigan 4 5.65 0.16 248 3.00
Iowa 3 2.13 0.07 181 1.67
Purdue 4 1.60 0.05 185 2.25
Michigan State 3 0.70 0.03 104 1.00
Penn State 4 0.61 0.02 132 1.00
Minnesota 4 0.51 0.02 111 1.25
Ohio State 4 -0.56 -0.02 187 1.75
Indiana 3 -1.19 -0.03 192 2.33
Wisconsin 3 -2.67 -0.08 183 2.33
Northwestern 3 -2.89 -0.09 128 1.33
Illinois 2 -5.24 -0.20 114 0.50

Offense - Pass+
Team G Total VPP Yards TD INT
Michigan State 3 5.43 0.16 311 2.67 1.33
Penn State 4 4.51 0.15 243 2.25 1.50
Northwestern 3 3.31 0.08 279 2.00 1.00
Michigan 4 3.15 0.13 173 1.75 1.25
Iowa 3 1.39 0.05 172 1.33 1.67
Ohio State 4 1.17 0.05 182 1.25 1.00
Wisconsin 3 0.40 0.01 245 2.00 0.67
Minnesota 4 -0.73 -0.02 212 1.50 1.25
Purdue 4 -0.81 -0.02 231 2.00 1.50
Indiana 3 -2.65 -0.08 203 0.67 0.67
Illinois 2 -4.60 -0.18 125 0.00 2.00

Defense - Season+
Def G Value Yards
Iowa 3 13.78 278
Ohio State 4 7.05 251
Penn State 5 4.77 186
Wisconsin 3 3.79 408
Michigan 4 3.42 387
Purdue 4 1.17 420
Indiana 3 1.13 311
Minnesota 4 0.30 365
Michigan State 3 -2.25 431
Illinois 2 -2.39 381
Northwestern 3 -9.32 381

Defense - Rush+
Team G Total VPP Yards TD
Wisconsin 3 3.50 0.13 133 0.67
Michigan State 3 2.74 0.09 142 0.67
Penn State 5 2.61 0.14 72 0.20
Iowa 3 2.31 0.09 147 0.00
Indiana 3 1.47 0.05 110 1.67
Ohio State 4 0.84 0.03 116 1.00
Minnesota 4 0.41 0.01 167 1.75
Michigan 4 -0.24 -0.01 151 1.50
Illinois 2 -1.16 -0.04 186 1.50
Purdue 4 -1.47 -0.04 190 2.25
Northwestern 3 -2.93 -0.09 166 2.33

Defense - Pass+
Defense - Pass+
Team G Total VPP Yards TD INT
Iowa 3 11.47 0.44 131 0.67 3.00
Ohio State 4 6.21 0.23 134 0.50 1.50
Michigan 4 3.67 0.11 236 1.00 1.00
Penn State 4 2.71 0.12 142 0.50 1.25
Purdue 4 2.64 0.08 229 1.25 0.75
Wisconsin 3 0.29 0.01 274 2.67 2.00
Minnesota 4 -0.11 0.00 198 1.00 0.50
Indiana 3 -0.35 -0.01 201 1.33 1.67
Illinois 2 -1.23 -0.06 195 2.00 0.00
Michigan State 3 -4.99 -0.13 289 3.33 0.67
Northwestern 3 -6.38 -0.20 215 1.67 1.33


Expected Points - Offense
Off G Expected Points Actual Points Diff
Michigan 4 24.80 35.50 10.71
Michigan State 3 21.27 29.67 8.40
Wisconsin 3 25.35 33.33 7.98
Northwestern 3 20.31 26.33 6.02
Purdue 4 26.15 31.25 5.10
Ohio State 4 22.52 26.00 3.48
Penn State 4 21.85 24.50 2.65
Indiana 3 27.01 28.33 1.32
Minnesota 4 23.52 23.00 -0.52
Iowa 3 24.12 22.67 -1.45
Illinois 2 16.77 5.00 -11.77

Expected Points - Defense
Def G Expected Points Actual Points Diff
Iowa 3 17.99 7.00 -10.99
Penn State 5 17.24 6.60 -10.64
Ohio State 4 19.40 10.75 -8.65
Michigan 4 23.39 21.00 -2.39
Indiana 3 22.30 22.00 -0.30
Minnesota 4 22.10 23.00 0.90
Purdue 4 25.81 26.75 0.95
Wisconsin 3 23.26 27.33 4.08
Northwestern 3 26.00 32.00 6.00
Michigan State 3 23.13 34.00 10.87
Illinois 2 19.54 33.50 13.96

ST - All - Per Play
Team Kick KO KR PR Punt
Illinois -0.33 0.07 0.07 -0.18 0.12
Indiana -0.98 -0.18 0.84 0.11 -0.32
Iowa 0.48 -0.11 -0.02 0.17 0.20
Michigan 0.67 -0.08 0.28 0.00 0.15
Michigan State 0.34 -0.25 0.05 0.78 0.01
Minnesota 0.44 -0.18 0.06 0.36 0.13
Northwestern 0.48 -0.25 -0.15 -1.11 -0.07
Ohio State 1.60 0.11 0.02 -0.12 0.11
Penn State -0.79 -0.10 -0.17 -0.06 -0.22
Purdue 0.70 -0.20 -0.06 -0.09 -0.04
Wisconsin 0.29 -0.01 0.04 -0.10 0.16
big 10
By The Numbers

Comments

leftrare

September 29th, 2009 at 4:20 PM ^

Can you explain the difference between what you report in your "ACTUAL POINTS" columns vs. the boxscore actual? You mention in one of your blog explanations that you don't chart "garbage" plays and I assume you don't include ST or interception return touchdowns (i.e, Stonum). Is that what I'm missing or is there more. I like what you've done, BTW. Just curious.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 3213

The Mathlete

September 29th, 2009 at 4:38 PM ^

There are a couple potential reasons for the gaps. 1. Garbage time, as you noted, is either excluded or diminished 2. Defensive and special teams touchdowns are not included 3. All touchdowns are included as 7 points, even if the PAT/2PC is missed or if a 2PC is successful. 4. Safeties count as -2 for the offense, so a touchdown and a safety would mean the offense has produced 5 points. I think these are all the reasons for potential discrepancies.

Joined: 10/01/2008

MGoPoints: 2905

leftrare

September 29th, 2009 at 4:57 PM ^

So, the EMU touchdown in the second half was garbage (7 fewer against the D), Stonum's return TD didn't count (seven fewer for the O) and the 2pt conversion against Indiana actaully counted as 1 (1 fewer for the O). 150 points for the O becomes 142, ergo, 35.5 91 points against the D becomes 84, ergo, 21.0 got it. Did you know the last LC team to score 150 in 4 games was in 2003 and he only did it one other time? Moeller's teams did it a bunch and Bo's did it less than I would have thought. I'm guessing they'll need 45 to beat Sparty, which is not inconceivable.

Joined: 06/30/2008

MGoPoints: 3213

AMazinBlue

September 29th, 2009 at 10:39 PM ^

Michigan has an offense that creates a serious mis-match for every opponent. Not, any one-on-one matchup or even the o-line vs the d-line. We have an offense that other teams haven't been able to slow down, much less stop. We killed four drives against IU on our own. If half of those are TDs we score 50!(theoretically). Other teams must see this as an offense they have to outscore as opposed to stopping. That creates a mis-match in game preparation and a shift in focus. If our defense just limits the big plays, we can become dominant.

Joined: 10/12/2008

MGoPoints: 7197

funkywolve

September 30th, 2009 at 1:53 AM ^

Considering that since 2002 the only OSU defense that has probably come close to giving up 19 pts/game was the 2004 defense, why were they expected to give up 19.4 pts/game this year?

Joined: 10/08/2008

MGoPoints: 20176

The Mathlete

September 30th, 2009 at 11:15 AM ^

The expected points are how many points an average team would give up given the starting field position of the opponent. It is consistent across all teams. In other words, on average, a D1 football team would allow 19.4 pts/game if they faced the same drives OSU did. Good defenses would obviously allow less, bad defenses would allow more. The metric is there to distinguish points allowed between teams that have faced different numbers of drives/game and different starting field position. Giving up a FG when the other team starts with first and goal at the 1 is a huge win for the defense, even though they allowed 3 points. Giving up a FG when the other teams starts at their own 1 is a huge loss for the defense, even though the points allowed are the same. These differences are reflected in the expected points numbers.

Joined: 10/01/2008

MGoPoints: 2905

wooderson

September 30th, 2009 at 10:25 AM ^

You've got Penn State as having played 5 games on defense. Typo or does that mean something?? Good stuff though, very informative. I don't like seeing MSU as the #1 pass offense, that doesn't bode well for this weekend.

Joined: 07/28/2008

MGoPoints: 343