Mirroring 2012 v 2013 v 2016 'Croots
I have spreadsheets.
Thought it would be interesting to mirror curent 'croot ranks of the 2016s to the 2 classes most like it in size, 2012 & 2013. Those 2 classes finished #4 and #6 respectively and this year's class is likely to finish just about in the same spot.
Since almost all these hudl films look similar to me outside a few guys like Peppers (everyone looks great) and the OL guys are impossible for me to figure out at all from highlight tapes, this stuff helps ground my expectations a bit...
I split the classes into sub-groups by 247 composite rank
- Top 100
- 101-200
- 201-300
- 301-500
- 500+
Also put in some top 150 guys we are after in this class into the charts.
No analysis -- just data -- since projecting who will be Willie Henry and who will be Derrick Green in advance is a fruitless exercise. But I do expect a higher "hit rate" go forward - we just never know who the hits will be.
All the normal caveats of: every class has washouts - its to be expected, academics, injuries, past means nothing in relation to the future, and last staff tomfoolery v current staff etc.
[Sorry some of this falls off the right edge of the page and runs into the sidebar]
Top 100s (4 in 2012 -- 6 in 2013 -- 4 so far in 2016)
| Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | ||
| OG | Kyle Kalis | 4 | 49 | RB | Derrick Green | 5 | 26 | DL | Rashan Gary | 5 | 1 | ||
| DT | Ondre Pipkins | 4 | 60 | C | Patrick Kugler | 4 | 69 | OL | Ben Bredeson | 4 | 37 | ||
| ILB | Joe Bolden | 4 | 75 | S | Dymonte Thomas | 4 | 72 | RB | Kareem Walker | 4 | 39 | ||
| OT | Erik Magnuson | 4 | 83 | QB | Shane Morris | 4 | 73 | QB | Brandon Peters | 4 | 63 | ||
| OG | Kyle Bosch | 4 | 88 | CB | David Long | 4 | 65 | ||||||
| OG | David Dawson | 4 | 96 | OL | Terrance Davis | 4 | 66 | ||||||
| OL | Jean Delance | 4 | 90 | ||||||||||
| DL | Jordan Elliott | 4 | 95 |
101-200 (6 in 2012 -- 7 in 2013 -- 2 so far in 2016)
| Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | ||
| ILB | James Ross | 4 | 115 | OL | Chris Fox | 4 | 111 | OL | Michael Onwenu | 4 | 104 | ||
| SDE | Chris Wormley | 4 | 128 | CB | Jourdan Lewis | 4 | 116 | WR | Dylan Crawford | 4 | 113 | ||
| OLB | Royce Jenkins-Stone | 4 | 139 | DL | Henry Poggi | 4 | 122 | LB | Dontavious Jackson | 4 | 122 | ||
| CB | Terry Richardson | 4 | 140 | LB | Michael McCray | 4 | 131 | ATH | Ahmir Mitchell | 4 | 132 | ||
| WDE | Tom Strobel | 4 | 179 | DE | Taco Charlton | 4 | 133 | CB | Lavert Hill | 4 | 140 | ||
| ATH | Dennis Norfleet | 4 | 194 | OT | LTT | 4 | 169 | ||||||
| TE | Jake Butt | 4 | 173 |
201-300 (4 in 2012 -- 3 in 2013 -- 4 so far in 2016)
| Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | ||
| WR | Amara Darboh | 4 | 221 | RB | DeVeon Smith | 4 | 210 | OL | Devery Hamilton | 4 | 237 | ||
| S | Jarrod Wilson | 4 | 237 | LB | Ben Gedeon | 4 | 216 | LB | Devin Bush Jr | 4 | 240 | ||
| WDE | Mario Ojedmudia | 4 | 251 | DT | Maurice Hurst | 4 | 259 | WR | Brad Hawkins | 4 | 283 | ||
| TE | Devin Funchess | 4 | 260 | DL | Ron Johnson | 4 | 294 |
301-500 (4 in 2012 -- 5 in 2013 -- 3 so far in 2016)
| Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | ||
| TE | AJ Williams | 4 | 331 | S | Delano Hill | 4 | 300 | OL | Erik Swenson | 4 | 317 | ||
| SDE | Matt Godin | 3 | 373 | FB | Wyatt Shallman | 4 | 301 | DL | Carlo Kemp | 4 | 305 | ||
| ILB | Kaleb Ringer | 3 | 424 | W | Jaron Dukes | 3 | 339 | ATH | Chris Evans | 4 | 327 | ||
| OT | Ben Braden | 3 | 427 | CB | Ross Douglas | 3 | 375 | ||||||
| OG | Dan Samuelson | 3 | 417 |
500+ (7 in 2012 -- 6 in 2013 -- 10 so far in 2016)
| Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | Pos | Name | HS * | Ntl Rnk | ||
| S | Jeremy Clark | 3 | 572 | WR | Csont'e York | 3 | 564 | ATH | Kiante Enis | 3 | 561 | ||
| WR | Jehu Chesson | 3 | 639 | AT | Canning Stribling | 3 | 581 | WR | Nate Johnson | 3 | 679 | ||
| OT | Blake Bars | 3 | 643 | TE | Khalid Hill | 3 | 670 | CB | Sir Patrick Scott | 3 | 686 | ||
| FB | Sione Houma | 3 | 705 | WR | Da'Mario Jones | 3 | 775 | RB | Kingston Davis | 3 | 737 | ||
| ATH | Allen Gant | 3 | 852 | CB | Reon Dawson | 3 | 813 | S / LB | Devin Gil | 3 | >1000 | ||
| RB | Drake Johnson | 3 | 938 | LS | Scott Sypniewski | 2 | >1000 | TE | Sean McKeon | 3 | 859 | ||
| DT | Willie Henry | 3 | 947 | CB | Antwaine Richardson | 3 | >1000 | ||||||
| LB | Dytarious Johnson | 3 | >1000 | ||||||||||
| DT | Rashad Weaver | 3 | >1000 | ||||||||||
| S | Josh Metellus | 3 | >1000 |
December 21st, 2015 at 10:00 PM ^
December 21st, 2015 at 10:14 PM ^
National Championship winning teams typically bring in highly ranked recruiting classes. Of course, you need someone better than Brady Hoke at developing and utilizing that talent, which we now have.
December 22nd, 2015 at 9:06 AM ^
We've had Harbaugh for the better part of 11 months now and Green and Morris still look like busts. Heck our best TB might not even play offense full time and we are hoping to pick up another grad transfer QB.
Kugler, and Dawson haven't even sniffed the field and they guys ahead of them can't get a push in the run game to save their lives. The best player in that group is Dymonte Thomas. Everyone else in that group is a bust.
December 22nd, 2015 at 10:58 AM ^
They have played behind pretty good players up to now. The jury is out on them.
December 22nd, 2015 at 11:19 AM ^
Not being able to see the field over Kalis and Braden means they aren't better than Kalis and Braden. Hopefully they have an awesome 5th year come 2017 because the chances of them seeing the field in 2016 barring injury is pretty low. Cole to Center, JBB to LT.
December 22nd, 2015 at 12:37 PM ^
Grant Newsome is ahead of JBB at OT, judging by playing time.
December 22nd, 2015 at 12:59 PM ^
Good point. Newsome to LT.
Kugler, Bosch, and Dawson are still not starting next season.
December 22nd, 2015 at 1:24 PM ^
Yeah, I think Bosch's chances of ever seeing the field again for us are pretty low at this point.
December 22nd, 2015 at 11:58 AM ^
He forgot to much evaluation. I like Harbaugh > Hoke in that category as well.
December 21st, 2015 at 10:27 PM ^
It's still ok to be excited as a whole - other schools get similar classes and do big things with them. Others not so much. Lets hope we fall back into the former group go forward.
For myself it continues to support the idea that most fans need to curtail too much expectation out of freshmen - even the guys who turned into front line players mostly were non factors as freshman outside of a few like ross, funchess and butt. That's 3 guys out of about 50 recruits in the 2 classes combined who were impactful in yr 1. I guess if you want to stretch it could include Green / Smith who did a little as 1st year players but yeah outside of TE and running back little to no contribution from freshmen by and large in 2 classes full of top 300 players.
Cole was a truly rare bird that came along in 2014 in OL.
Football is hard to play right out of high school. Full stop. So outside the 2 EE running backs and maybe Bush in a ross type role (you play early due to need) I am not expecting much except from Gary next year if he signs.... he should be able to contribute like Mone / McDowell did as role players as freshmen.
December 21st, 2015 at 10:30 PM ^
Outside of Walker and Gary (and with our DL even his role may be a bit limited) I don't expect much out of this year's recruiting class because I feel good about the guys we already have. This is good, it gives the players time to learn.
To be fair, RR's personnel management forced us fans to hope for a lot more from the freshmen than we should have had.
December 21st, 2015 at 11:38 PM ^
Was that he ran a simple-to-teach offensive system that could integrate players very quickly, even OL. It was more than 'personnel management' forcing things, it was scheme and development allowing things...at least on offense. Defense was a cluster.
December 22nd, 2015 at 4:05 PM ^
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December 21st, 2015 at 11:29 PM ^
USUALLY freshman contributions are born out of roster need. SOMETIMES, a great talent can make an immediate impact if he's a "can't keep off the field guy". BUT, there are exceptions, where certain positions frequently have instant contributions, even from only-decent players (RB, WR, CB, WDE).
For Michigan next year:
Defense
- LB is obviously wide open. Multiple freshman should play. They probably won't do it very well.
- WDE/RLB is a spot where freshman can traditionally play right away for pass-rushing, if nothing else. That Marshall, Jones, and Shelton didn't should tell you they're far from elite players right now and will probably still be a year or two away from making major impacts. This is a spot where someone like Johnson or Kemp can feasibly make an impact from day 1 as a backup/pass-rush specialist behind Charlton.
- CB is a another spot where freshman can play. Michigan isn't really recruiting a 5-star CB, so this seems unlikely, but if any of the recruits show lock-down skills they could push Stribling, Clark, or Peppers to Safety. Brown reportedly likes Safeties who can cover.
- Gary may be really good but he's going to have to be REALLY really good, like better than McDowell good, to push Hurst, Mone, or Charlton to the bench. Even a guy like Godin (who played at/near Wormley's level at times last year) is going to struggle to find snaps if everyone is healthy. Gary should probably red-shirt, realistically.
Offense
- RB won't be as easy as everyone thinks it is because Smith and Johnson are quality players with experience, but that's a classic position for freshman contributions. They'll get a shot and EE should help.
- FB is wide open, but that's a tough one (nearly impossible) to break into right out of HS.
- WR - pretty dang open if you consider the slot. Perry came in, despite being a lowly rated in-state guy and played right away after a bunch of grad transfer rumors fizzled out late in the summer. If you're wondering why Michigan is still out there offering 35 WRs scholarships, a possible explanation is that they see an immediate opportunity. Nothing prevents Chesson or Darboh from working out of the slot, so noone should be pigeon-holing freshman into WR 'positions' yet. Freshman WR have trouble breaking in if you're running a complicated passing spread offense, but Michigan is not.
- OL - not as open as FB but same story.
- QB should be filled by O'Korn, a grad transfer, and red-shirted backup. Peters would have to be "can't keep off the field level"
- TE - no way, no how - we're too deep and the only vacancy is for a pseudo OL like maybe Wheatley.
December 22nd, 2015 at 6:25 AM ^
December 22nd, 2015 at 8:27 AM ^
isn't very good, so freshman compete more.
December 21st, 2015 at 10:26 PM ^
Saw the same thing. All in the same class. Ouch.
Thomas has a chance to shine next year. Other than his IN grade, you have to go down to Jourdain Lewis in that class to find someone that matched their potential. Maaaaybe if Kugler puts it together he can as well, but the tea leaves aren't promising so far.
Yet another harsh condemnation of the Hoke regime.
December 21st, 2015 at 10:39 PM ^
The top of the boards (top 100) both years are total busts to big underachievers (i.e. Kalis types) Some like Thomas may contribute to be a starter in their last year but you expect to get multi yr starters who push for conference honors out of a good amount of those rare top 100 folks. Those are guys only about 15-18 teams in the country ever get access to ...and the top 10 programs prob get 70%+ of.
Now compare that group to the guys in the 201-300 range - every guy in those 2 classes projects be a starter by the time they graduate as a senior. Funny how it worked out.
December 22nd, 2015 at 10:01 AM ^
Also a pretty good hit rate with the 500+ guys from 2012. You get 4-5 good players from that range, which is realistically all you are hoping for, actually maybe better than one could hope.
December 22nd, 2015 at 10:26 AM ^
December 22nd, 2015 at 12:44 AM ^
Yeah, that brought back some memories. I remember when the class was signed, I was thinking, "There's no way we can lose now! Unless our top six recruits fall victim to six separate misfortunes. Three misfortunes, that's possible. Four misfortunes, there's an outside chance. But six misfortunes! I'd like to see that!"
December 21st, 2015 at 10:50 PM ^
We also got hit with the injury bug for quite a few of our top guys - Pipkins, Strobel and Magnuson.
December 22nd, 2015 at 12:39 AM ^
I dont remember Strobel injury - guy just has been buried in depth chart. Pipkins was injured but never flashed even at Mone level in 2 yrs. Magnuson was injured half season but came back same year and it should not affect his play this year...which was ....ok to ok+.
December 22nd, 2015 at 11:27 AM ^
I'm not sure I agree with your assessment of Pipkins. I thought early returns were decent, and I agree with the poster you're responding to that he never had the opportunity to display continuous improvement due to injury.
I also think that if Pipkins contributes at a starting quality level at Texas Tech next year that his "processing" may prove one of Harbaugh's rare mistakes. We really could have used even another C+ level DT this year on the depth chart.
December 22nd, 2015 at 11:40 AM ^
DTs are not easy to judge on production like say a corner or running back but I just never saw it with Pipkins even early in year 2 before injury. Year 1 I am fine with it - he was a freshman, you dont expect too much. Look at McDowell in year 2 - he is probably the 3rd best DT in the conf. Impacts every play. Willie Henry made splash plays as a SO....wasnt consistent but you saw those plays....plays I dont recall Pipkins ever doing.
We'll see next yr but I feel people liked this guy for is Hoke impressions and felt he did more than he did in a Norfleet kind of way due to that star rating.
December 22nd, 2015 at 12:00 PM ^
Upon thinking about this more, you're right. Upvoted.
December 21st, 2015 at 11:19 PM ^
December 22nd, 2015 at 12:35 AM ^
That would be a serious project to complete so when Brian pays me to undertake it I will!
Just a cursory glance at 2012... I ignored all the 5* since UM's guys were 4* at #49-#83 so that takes me to player #36 in country
- 36 - Dante Fowler UF - a superstar at FL
- 37 - Mario Pender FSU - is stuck behind Dalvin Cook
- 38 - Joshua Garnett Stanford - he just won the Outland (I believe UM recruited him)
- 39 - Devin Fuller - 3 yr wr at UCLA, not a star but btw 30-60 catces a year for 3 yrs.
Just skipping around from 40 to 100
- 40 - Shaq Roland S.C. - out of football
- 41 - Reggie Ragland Bama - 2 yr star, All SEC 1st team
- 44 - Eli Harold Virginia - early entry NFL pick (3rd round)
- 45 - Amari Cooper Bama - star
- 47 - Zach Kline Cal - looks like a bust QB who transfered to Indiana State
- 50 - Leonard Williams USC - 6th overall pick in NFL as early entry
- 52 - Kennedy Estelle TX - dismissed from program by Strong
- 54 - DaVonte Neal ND - transferred to AZ, looks like a productive corner.
- 62 - Max Tuerk USC - started as a freshman, made freshman All American
- 64 - Zach Banner USC - 2 yr starter at right tackle , didnt look up how good he is but just declared he wont declare early for NFL so I assume pretty good.
- 65 - Ifeadi Onenigbo NW - mediocre LB
- 67 - Alex Carter Stanford - went to NFL early entry
- 69 - Cayleb Jones TX - transferred to AZ, two 1000 yd seasons in receptions
- 71 - Carlos Watson Clemson - All ACC
- 72 - Avery Young AUB - looks like a bust OT
- 74 - Todd Gurley GA - one of best running backs in nation pre injury
- 77 - Durron Neal OK - Darboh type production in 14 &15 (40-45 catches a yr)
- 80 - Tommy Schutt OSU - multi yr starter for OSU, not a superstar but very good player
- 85 - Bralon Addison Oregon - 2nd team All Pac 12
- 86 - Elijah Shumate ND - ok starter of Jarrod Wilson type it loos like
- 90 - Aaron Burbridge MSU - we know his story
- 93 - Sterling Shepard OK - star wide receiver, productive all 4 years, monster #s last 2 yrs.
- 96 - Briante Dunn OSU - bust
- 100 - Dan Voltz Wisconsin - 2nd team All Big 10 as a junior
I am just picking and choosing names I recognize or picking a few random ones, I am sure there are busts in there too. But these are type of guys you can find btw #40 and #100.
Man looking at this list, USC gets so much talent.
December 22nd, 2015 at 8:14 AM ^
December 22nd, 2015 at 10:21 AM ^
December 22nd, 2015 at 8:01 AM ^
Matt Hinton used to do an annual article on this topic, demonstrating that recruiting stars DO matter - players with better rankings are more likely to become all-Americans, get drafted, etc. Here's one from a couple years ago.
December 22nd, 2015 at 12:15 PM ^
They don't show up in your lists, but I found these composite rankings of some of our QBs interesting:
Wilton Speight .8728 *** #22 Pro QB
John O'Korn .8594 *** #32 Pro QB
Jake Rudock .8560 *** #24 Pro QB
All three stars, but surprisingly Speight was ranked slightly higher coming out of HS.
December 22nd, 2015 at 3:38 PM ^
It is amazing to think that even though the 2014 class was much smaller than the 2013 class, it will probably have more successful players at a higher rate.
Obviously Peppers is better than anyone from 2013 at his position, but there are some other guys that are looking special. Mone may have been a starter this year, and will probably end up being as good if not better at his position than anyone from 2013. Cole has started two years, and has already surpassed all 2013 OL. Harris and Ways have jumped all WRs in the 2013 class in regards to playing time.
As underwhelming as the 2013 class has been up until now, the 2014 class has been pretty solid.
December 22nd, 2015 at 5:38 PM ^
2013 WRs were yet another Hoke disaster. Ways & Harris have barely done anything themselves so it says a lot about the 2013s (1 kicked out of school of course).
With the failure at the top of the class and the lack of gems at the bottom like in 2012, and OL attrition and Kugler looking like not a trusted agent, and failure of all 3 wideouts - it is a flaming mess of a class outside Butt Lewis and a few "solid guys" ala the safeties and Taco. If reranked this prob would be a class nearer to #40 instead of #6. And thats with 28 kids in it!
December 22nd, 2015 at 8:24 PM ^
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