Michigan v Clemson - thoughts on matchup

Submitted by FingerMustache on March 16th, 2009 at 2:12 PM

One of the most glaring statistics to me is the fact that Clemson is ranked 256th out of 330 D1 schools in terms of opponents 3pt%, giving up approx 35.8% of 3pt attempts.
Michigan ranks 31st in terms of opponents 3pt%, 31.4% against.

This is a very important stat, b/c both teams take a lot of 3pters. Michigan is 15th in terms of 3pters made per game, with 8.6. Clemson is 28th, making 8.1 3pters per game.

Unfortunately Clemson also takes significantly less, as they shoot at 37.9%, which is 37th. Michigan only shoots 33.3%, which is 195th.

Both teams have a pretty solid turnover ratios: Clemson is ranked 35th with an avg margin of about +2.9. Michigan is 45th with a margin of +2.5.

Obviously rebounding has been pretty poor for UM throughout the yr. We rank 276th with an avg margin of -3.0. Clemson has been only mediocre with a rank of 126th and a margin of +1.6. Michigan St., who is ranked #1 in reboundding, killed us in this department.

The overall fg% against is pretty close for the two teams. Clemson is 164th, with a 43.2fg% against. Michigan is 193rd, with a 43.7 fg& against.

Clemson runs a lot of full court press which has given our guards some trouble throughout the yr. I personally hope to see grady getting significant playing time, both to breakdown the press, and to give us another 3pt shooter.

For the most part this team has lived and died by the three (althou not in all instances). If we can put up big numbers from beyond the arc, and hopefully get significant contributions from douglass and novak, we should be in decent shape. This was a big problem with Illinois, who ranks 4th overall in terms of opponents 3pt%.

When i look at the big picture, things look pretty close. Turnovers are pretty much a push. They get the advantage in rebounding, but we will probably hit a few more 3pters (althou attempt significantly more).

Ultimately this is going to come down to which versions of Sims and Harris show up. Are we gonna get the Sims that works off of his low post scoring and midrange scoring, or are we gonna get the Sims that takes off balance 15footers and jacks up 3s? Are we gonna get the Manny that slashes to the basket and scores at will, or are we gonna get the frustrated, turnover prone, shoot 3pt fadeaways with a hand in my face Manny Harris?

Comments

bronxblue

March 16th, 2009 at 3:33 PM ^

Concerning what version of Sims and Harris will show up, I think that will be largely based on the type of game the referees call. If it is a typical Big 10 "no autopsy, no foul"-type of game, then UM might be toast. If the refs call it relatively tight, expect UM's shooters to get some nice kickouts and/or Harris going to the line 10+ times.

mhwaldm

March 16th, 2009 at 4:49 PM ^

tru story on the defender comment. however grady's 36.6%3pt is the 3rd best on the team behind eric puls's 75% (which doesnt really count) and david merrit's 38.2%. Just for reference, 4th place is douglass with 35% and 5th is LLP with 34.8%. And considering Merrit only has 34 3pt attempts to Grady's 82, I would consider Grady our best 3pt shooter. (mabe give the slight edge to douglass since hes taken 143 3pt attempts.)

NJWolverine

March 16th, 2009 at 11:39 PM ^

Grady is the best three point shooter on the team other than Merritt, whose low attempt numbers should exclude him from the ranking. He is a huge defensive liability though. However, with the constant pressing, if Lee, Merritt and Douglass can't handle their press, Beilein will have no choice but to insert Grady and hope we win a shootout. It'll be an interesting game, for sure. Win or lose, I'm just glad the wolverines are back in the dance!

mattbern

March 16th, 2009 at 4:25 PM ^

that we get a combination of the scoring at will manny and the manny that takes ridiculous fall away 3's with a hand in his face. I would definitely enjoy that

the_white_tiger

March 16th, 2009 at 5:29 PM ^

DeShawn Sims' matchup against Trevor Booker will be a big determining factor. Sims has been big in all of Michigan's big games this year and he'll need to be to beat Clemson. Booker is their DeShawn Sims-size power forward who is their de facto scorer (think Manny Harris), who also finished second in ACC Defensive POY voting (to be fair Kelvin Grady would be up there too...). Booker vs. Sims down low will play a huge factor in the game.

Grady's defensive performance will also be a huge determinant in the game also.

Manny Harris needs to emerge as an off the dribble scoring threat, and to create his own shots so as to disrupt the press.

Novak, Douglass, or LLP needs to knock down shots to keep the pressure on the Tigers as well.

Michigan-66, Clemson-59
Let's see an ACC team slow it down(!) and play defensive basketball for once.

foreverbluemaize

March 17th, 2009 at 4:43 PM ^

I do not know Bball well so this may be a stupid question but here goes. Manny is the fastest guy on the team and is the best at ball handling (IMO). So in the event of a full court press why don't they let Manny bring it up the court instead of some of the slower guys like Lee. I know that they want Manny getting set up at the other end but if he blows past someone they could end up with a situation where we have numbers on the other guys and get a quick jam. It seems to me that it would at least make them back off of the press a little bit. Please tell me if I'm wrong.

FingerMustache

March 18th, 2009 at 11:33 AM ^

There are a couple of issues here:
1. Manny Harris is not a terrific ball handler. He does have great speed and athleticism that allows him to slash to the basket, but he also has a lot of turnovers. He would struggle bringing the ball up the court and ultimately would get overly frustrated, bringing about his turnover prone tendencies.

The reason why gradys name has been mentioned for this situation is that he has skills that you mentioned. Grady is without doubt the quickest player on the team, and he has great dribbling ability. However his lacking defensive contribution (I also think beliens preference for a distributor at PG rather than somone with gradys score first mentality)that is keeping him out of the game.