Michigan Hockey 17-18, Game #6: Michigan 5, Penn State 2

Submitted by NastyIsland on October 29th, 2017 at 6:07 PM

Five point weekend for Ol’ Dex (Patrick Barron)

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

5 4 31%

Second Period

24 10 51%

Third Period

13 5 34%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

42 19 42%

Analysis: Michigan’s offense in this game resembled last season’s offense. Five and 13 attempts in the first and third periods, respectively. Not awesome. They scored goals because Peyton Jones kinda sucks. Also, Penn State had some terrible giveaways. Give Michigan credit, they took advantage of what Penn State gave them. There is a lot to be said for that, but aside from a bluster in the middle of the second period, Michigan was doing more chasing of the puck. They did manage to get quite of a few good looks– 45% of their attempts came from the House, so when they shot the puck, they were generally in quality positions to do so. Some of the lack of shots is probably related to the avalanche of penalty minutes that they had to kill...more on that later.

[Hit THE JUMP for defense, special teams, goaltending, and more]

DEFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

11 4 69%

Second Period

23 6 49%

Third Period

25 11 66%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

59 21 58%

Analysis: Penn State has yet to see a shot they haven’t liked. The Lions literally ripped from everywhere, again. This is not a surprise. They’ve done this for a couple years, now, and last night was no exception. PSU doesn’t seem to have overwhelming individual talent, but they have a lot of continuity in their forwards, know their system, and execute it as well as possible. I thought Michigan did a pretty good job of keeping them out of the slot –and to an extent the House in general- and forcing PSU to bomb away from distance. Michigan did a much better job on Saturday of staying in front of shooters and not hanging Hayden Lavigne out to dry. Even so, that’s still a lot of attempts.

Tony Calderone: the Power Play Sniper (Bill Rapai)

SPECIAL TEAMS

 

PP For

PP Against

PP Corsi For

PP Corsi Against

PP Shots/Min For

PP Shots/Min Against

First Period

0/1 0/2 2 19 .5 1.14

Second Period

1/1 0/2 4 9 1.5 1.25

Third Period

n/a 0/3 n/a 8 n/a .66

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

1/2 0/7 6 36 1 1

Analysis: Whoa. So, Michigan took nine penalties that led to seven penalty kills. Against a supposedly great power play unit. That cannot happen. For some reason, Penn State could not unlock Michigan’s kill, though. They tried 36(!) times, including registering 17 shots! Hayden Lavigne was phenomenal. A majority of Penn State’s man-advantage looks did come from distance, but still…that is just A LOT of attempts on goal. One of Michigan’s penalties was of the five minute variety. So, Penn State spent almost a third of this game on the power play and got nothing for it. I’ll have to look around and see if Michigan is doing anything different (I’m sure there’s at least something) or if they are just getting lucky, but my hunch right now is the latter. Fantastic goaltending, for sure, but that’s just a ton of pucks to the net. On the flip side, Michigan managed to get Tony Calderone free in the slot, and he patiently waited for an opening and took advantage of a poor goaltender giving Michigan a power play goal in one of their two chances, tonight. Not to be a downer, but I think Michigan got very lucky on special teams over the course of the weekend. I hope I am wrong. We will see in a few weeks when Minnesota and Wisconsin come calling.

GOALTENDING

 

Shots Faced

Shots from House Faced

First Period

14 5

Second Period

15 6

Third Period

15 5

Overtime

n/a n/a

TOTAL

44 16

Analysis: I will argue that Lavigne’s performance was just as impressive as JLF’s amazing Friday night showing. While Lavigne didn’t quite get the volume of shots that LaFontaine did, he was basically in front of a firing squad due to spending a third of his evening with one less friend on the ice. He also gave up no bad goals. On the first, he was screened and the puck was deflected at least once. On the second, two Michigan players missed clearing chances and the puck literally went around the net in a full circle before it was batted past him. He also had some point-blank saves. This was not the stand-on-your-head type of performance, but it was one of great positioning and vision. JLF probably has a little more upside, but Lavigne could probably start on almost any team.

ODD-MAN RUSHES

 

Rushes

Advantages

Escape %

First Period

1 2v1 100%

Second Period

n/a n/a n/a

Third Period

1 1v0 100%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

2 2v1, 1v0 100%

Analysis: Michigan’s defense continues to be disciplined and not get caught up ice needlessly. I believe both instances that they did, Michigan was on a power play. Hughes, again, tried to make a play near the boards and Luke Martin got back to diffuse the two-on-one. The second was a great outlet pass that saw Lavigne shut down the PSU attacker who had split the Michigan defenders. The OMRs can happen on special teams because of the nature of different players playing together and positioning on the ice (or just lack of guys on a penalty kill). So, I won’t hammer Michigan for that. It is very encouraging that there are still very few, and they are not happening at even strength.

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS

I had: Penn State 59, Michigan 42

www.collegehockeynews.com had: Penn State 61, Michigan 47

Comments

NastyIsland

October 29th, 2017 at 6:47 PM ^

Both goalies are sophomores.

Also, I know CHN tracks corsi, but I don't think they break it down by zones. I actually track 8 different zones but only talk about House and everything outside of that. It's easier and idk if anything else is relevant. I just like to have as many specifics as I can.

I'm sure programs with Analytics departments track plenty of different things. I'm basically just scratching the surface.

Jfhskhx

October 29th, 2017 at 6:44 PM ^

My first time reading hockey analysis, and it is very interesting. However I have never heard of the House. Is it similar to the slot or completely different?

Scottwood

October 29th, 2017 at 9:07 PM ^

I thought this was a fluke win just glancing at the shot totals but it looks like scoring chances were pretty even, so that bodes well. 

Plus, reinforcement is coming in future years given their insane recruiting under Mel.

NastyIsland

October 30th, 2017 at 9:04 AM ^

Oh for sure. They've definitely been much more sound on the defensive end in terms of positioning and staying in front of guys. My comment about being lucky was referring to the penalty kill. It definitely seems improved, but giving up 30+ attempts on 7 PPs without giving up a goal doesn't seem sustainable, regardless of how good your PK is. At some point, the man advantage will move defenders and the goaltender enough to find the back of the net.

I Bleed Maize N Blue

October 30th, 2017 at 9:38 AM ^

I'm not experienced at reading these charts. So of 38 PSU PP shots, 12 were blocked, 7 were wide, and Lavigne saved the remaining 19. Sure, complete PK success isn't sustainable, but can you really just say "lucky"? Maybe some of it was luck, but also hard work by the PKers and Lavigne being on in this game.

NastyIsland

October 30th, 2017 at 2:18 PM ^

So, PSU had 36 PP shot attempts. I had 7 misses, 12 blocks, and 17 shots. I'm not trying to take anything away from the PK, at all. It was more a comment of not giving up a goal on 36 shot attempts with a man advantage seems like a bit of an outlier. If we count their next 36 shot attempts given up on the PK, I would be very surprised if they do not surrender a goal.

4roses

October 30th, 2017 at 9:35 AM ^

Great update as usual. I am curious about how you track your stats. Do you use a tablet or computer? I have a couple hockey playing sons and have tracked stats in the past but have always doen it the old-fashioned way (i.e. pen and paper). I've always thought that there must be an easier way but haven't spent much time looking for it. 

NastyIsland

October 30th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^

Glad you enjoy the Breakdowns. I track them various ways. Most places will give out shot charts to media, designating what type of attempt each mark was. Some places are better than others about it...and go into more detail. A lot of the times I use the charts because I don't have the time to go back through every single game. However, there are some games that I do go back through and watch and mark my own charts. Some places do not designate special teams attempts. Those I have to go back and at least watch the power plays. I'm sure there are much more advanced ways of doing this -somewhere, but I am mostly just starting out doing most of this. Each of the past couple of years, I've edited/changed some things in my process, etc.

NastyIsland

October 30th, 2017 at 2:26 PM ^

I wasn't a fan of Jones because I thought he was very inconsistent in his rebound control and  in some of the goals he gave up. There were multiple soft goals that he allowed. Also, if you look back at the previous few games for Penn State, they gave up 14 goals in their previous three games. Some of those could obviously be on the defense, for sure, but I saw a few that were not. Perhaps, he just had an off-weekend, but I wasn't overly impressed last year, either.