Michigan Hockey ‘17-18, Game #28: Wisconsin 4, Michigan 2

Submitted by NastyIsland on February 3rd, 2018 at 10:56 PM

IMG_7792

Yeah, kinda like that [Eric Upchurch]

OFFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

26 13 62%

Second Period

14 8 54%

Third Period

12 10 67%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

52 31 60%

Analysis: Granted, this was probably score-adjusted, but whoa. After a night where Michigan did not create anything at even strength, this looked like a different offense. Michigan took 31 attempts (60% of their total) from the House (front of the net to the dots and up to the top of the faceoff circles) and came away with no goals. Sports! Before there was any score, Michigan created about four looks that had great chances of producing a goal. So, it wasn’t all situational. If the Wolverines reproduce this, they’ll likely get four or five on the board. Hayton played well, but he had bounces go his way tonight. There were rebounds, trickles, and whiffs all night. Michigan just could not bury anything. There are nights like that, and Michigan got one when they could least afford it. Let’s see if they can reproduce this next weekend. They’ll need to do so.

[After THE JUMP: the defense held up, but the goaltending didn't]

IMG_5669

Slippin’ and slidin’ but I’m not blaming the defense, tonight [Eric Upchurch]

DEFENSE

 

Corsi

House

Possession %

First Period

16 6 38%

Second Period

12 6 46%

Third Period

6 3 33%

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

34 15 40%

Analysis: Michigan’s defense was acceptable tonight. You can argue that the first goal was the result of the defense, but there is also a reason that Trent Frederic is a first-rounder. After the score was a bit out of reach, Wisconsin did not need to press and the third period shot chart is reflective of that. Fair, but Michigan turned a lot of that into offense as well. Michigan cleared away rebounds in front of Lavigne and LaFontaine, and they also limited House chances for the most part. The scoreboard looks to reflect a poor defensive game, but that seems to be a bit misleading.

IMG_8086

These are the kind of passes it takes for Michigan to score on the power play [Eric Upchurch]

SPECIAL TEAMS

 

PP For

PP Against

PP Corsi For

PP Corsi Against

PP Shots/Min For

PP Shots/Min Against

First Period

0/.5 1/1 1 2 1 1

Second Period

0/2.5 1/2 10 4 1(5/5) .4(2/5)

Third Period

1/3 0/2 10 9 .33(2/6) 1.75(7/4)

Overtime

n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

TOTAL

1/6 2/5 21 15 .66 1

Analysis: Michigan created a ton on six power plays, but that puck would go high, wide, or end up under Hayton. The chances were there, but the goals were not. Aside from Marody, there is not an elite goalscorer on the ice…especially with Lockwood out. They’re going to need some garbage goals or nice deflections or intricate passes to get consistent finishes. Michigan did get one on a fantastic look from Norris to Becker with a cross-crease pass and finish.

Once again, Michigan surrendered two more goals on their penalty kill, but I am placing both of those on Lavigne. Neither were good shots and neither were blind. Aside from those, the penalty kill was sufficient. Wisconsin did generate a lot of looks, though. I still think five man-advantages is just too many for Michigan to face right now. PK still needs work.

IMG_5716

Lavigne has had good nights, but tonight was not one of them [Eric Upchurch]

GOALTENDING

 

Shots Faced

Shots from House Faced

First Period

12 5

Second Period

12 6

Third Period

9 5

Overtime

n/a n/a

TOTAL

33 16

Analysis: It’s been a long time since I’ve thought “Everything seems to be clicking well for Michigan…except their goaltending.” In fact, I don’t remember thinking that at all this season. Until tonight. Unfortunately, that’s where the game was lost for Michigan.

I’ll let the first goal slide. A long shot through traffic bounces to a checked Frederic and he finishes. After that, the goals got worse. A poke, slow trickler crawled through the slot, crease, and somehow got behind Lavigne and just inside the post. Unlucky? Maybe…but that cannot go in at that speed from that distance. The third goal was a snapshot but from below the dot with no angle. He needs to be on the post and if he is, with his size, there should be no room. Lastly, the fourth on the power play was from the blue line and it seemed like Lavigne saw it, but it beat him and tucked inside the post. Not good. We’ve seen this from him before, but tonight the rebounds and late reactions all came back to bite him. He’s not a bad goalie, but Michigan has seen the ceiling with Hayden Lavigne. They can be a solid team (with some puck luck), but that might be it. You’re going to get games like this and if you don’t reciprocate the scoring, its easy to lose games that you control. If Michigan is looking for a chance to give JLF one more shot this year, this would be it. He played fine in his half a game, but the score was too out of hand to really get a great assessment.

IMG_5521 (1)

Sometimes, its like that [Eric Upchurch]

ODD-MAN RUSHES

Defense

Rushes

Advs

Escape%

Offense

Rushes

Advs

Scoring%

1st Period

n/a n/a n/a   2 1v0, 3v2 0%

2nd Period

n/a n/a n/a   n/a n/a n/a

3rd Period

n/a n/a n/a   1 2v1 0%

OT

n/a n/a n/a   n/a n/a n/a

Total

n/a n/a n/a   3 1v0, 2v1, 3v2 0%

Analysis: I could have missed things, but once again, I did not see Michigan give up an OMR. I saw a few defensemen jump the play and a forward always rotated back. This is good news.

Michigan created three OMRs and had good looks on all of them. Calderone got in on a breakaway and the puck trickled off of Hayton and wide. Raabe got an excellent look from the slot, but again…Hayton. Norris and Slaker created a 2v1 on a PK late in the game, but Jake’s shot went too high. Michigan had really great chances, it's just that nothing went in tonight.

FINAL CORSI NUMBERS

I had: Michigan 52(31), Wisconsin 34(15)

www.collegehockeynews.com had:  Michigan 54, Wisconsin 33

Comments

steeltownblue

February 5th, 2018 at 10:32 AM ^

Using Jim Dahl's pairwise predictor:

-- if we split every remaining series (Staee, Notre Dame and ASU), we are out of the PWR top 15.  

-- if we sweep Staee, split with ND and ASU, we would likely make PWR 14.  Same if we sweep ASU, split with Staee and split with ND, or sweep ND and split the other two.

-- if we lose any series we have to sweep the other two to reach PWR 14 (series loss to Staee or ND) or 15 (series loss to ASU).

-- if M wins the rest of its games we would reach PWR 8.