MBB Remaining Games: Bonus Edition!

Submitted by mistersuits on April 8th, 2013 at 8:36 AM
I can''t help myself!!!!!

Remaining Games Chart:

Since the last time I've modified the chart a bit so instead of a non-sensical number average, "Difficulty" is now on a log scale of 1 to 10 of the KenPom/RPI average weighted by site of game.

 

Rank Opponent Difficulty KenPom RPI Result
- MICHIGAN - 5 11 -
1 #Louisville 10 1 2 ???
2 @Indiana 9.5 3 9 73-81
3 @Ohio 9.5 6 7 53-56
4 #Florida 9 2 10 79-59
5 Indiana 9 3 9 71-72
6 @MSU 9 10 5 52-75
7 Ohio 9 6 7 76-74OT
8 #Syracuse 9 8 7 61-56
9 #Kansas 9 9 6 87-85OT
10 MSU 9 10 5 58-57
11 @Wisconsin 8 12 29 62-65OT
12 #VCU 8 16 25 78-53
13 #Wisconsin 8 12 29 59-68
14 @Minnesota 7.5 20 28 83-75
15 #Pittsburgh 7 11 44 67-62
16 #Kansas St. 7 33 22 71-57
17 @Illinois 7 39 32 74-60
18 Illinois 6.5 39 32 71-58
19 N.C. State 6.5 38 37 79-72
20 Iowa 6.5 23 61 95-67
21 @Purdue 5 64 124 80-75
22 Arkansas 5 71 89 80-67
23 #South Dakota St. 5 103 75 71-56
24 Purdue 5 64 124 68-53
25 WMU 4 111 118 73-41
26 Nebraska 4 128 104 62-47
27 #WVU 4 125 134 81-66
28 @Northwestern 4 130 164 94-66
29 @Penn State 3.5 140 174 78-84
30 #Penn State 3.5 140 174 67-39
31 Northwestern 3.5 130 164 68-46
32 @Bradley 3.5 164 184 74-66
33 Penn State 3 140 174 79-71
34 Cleveland St. 2 266 196 77-47
35 EMU 2 245 234 93-54
36 CMU 2 238 264 88-73
37 IUPUI 1 336 326 91-54
38 Binghampton 1 343 336 67-39
39 Slippery Rock 1 NR NR 100-62

 

Well, Here We Are

Not surprisingly, the most difficult game by the numbers comes last. Michigan displaced the previous #1 KenPom team convincingly and is rewarded by playing the new #1 for the championship.

The good news is that these rankings and statistics are a formality at this point. The game is a one-off, winner-take-all, who is hot on the right night, who gets the 50/50 call, who can make the shots. Michigan has been in every single game this season except for one and the circumstances leading up to that game are not what we have here tonight.

NCAA Tourney Run vs B1G Gauntlet

If you laid out Michigan’s tournament games from the Sweet 16 to the Championship you would see before you, at least according to KenPom, an unrivaled task of difficulty – four consecutive top 10 opponents, with lots of travel and not much time to prepare.

Michigan, incredibly, has already run an equally challenging gauntlet earlier this year. There are no advanced statistics that can measure what kind of benefit of experience a team takes away from playing the top four teams consecutively (three on the road) in a nine day span; but it is safe to say that these are the kinds of things that either make you or break you. Regardless of outcome Monday night the answer is already clear.

February 2nd – 12th

@Indiana (3)
vsOhio (6)
@Wisconsin (12)
@MSU (10)

March 29th – April 8th

#Kansas (9)
#Florida (2)
#Syracuse (8)
#Louisville (1)

As painful as it was to watch, can you draw up a tougher cluster of regular season games with which to teach and prepare this extremely young Michigan team?

The Team

  • Without Burke, could Michigan have rallied vs Kansas?
  • Without Hardaway pouring in 21 points on 5 of 7 three point shooting in a fifteen point victory, does Michigan have what it takes to beat South Dakota St?
  • Without Stauskas firebombing Florida, do the Gators keep it close and have a shot to win?
  • Without Robinson III's offensive efficiency and offensive rebounding does Michigan sputter in any of its tournament matchups, particularly Syracuse or SDSt?
  • Without McGary becoming a world beater, doesn't Michigan suffer an inevitable "Wisconsin"-style loss to Syracuse or get blown out by Kansas or get upset by VCU?
  • Without Albrecht becoming the most eligible bachelor and putting together a tournament highlight reel all his own, does Burke get worn down to the point Michigan exits early?
  • Without LeVert making two critical three pointers and playing a terrific defensive game, does Michigan have what it takes to outlast Syracuse?
  • Without Jordan Morgan "getting stops", does Michigan make it to the Championship game?

The best part of this run has been every rotation player has made plays crucial to the success of the whole team. As much as I thought the team's success would be utterly reliant on Trey Burke's performance, as went he so would the team's fate. Now vs Kansas this was true. But against South Dakota St and Syracuse in particular this was very much not the case. As a whole, the team has exceeded wildest expectations.

The Path To 32:

At Christmas I had seen this team play three games out in New York, I knew they were special. Now to climb to the top of the mountain we can throw out all the numbers, forget all the statistics, take our own time-out and appreciate how awesome this team is. The most difficult game of the season is the last. There is no tomorrow, but there is no fear.

Go Blue!

(Photo from UMHoops)

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