M vs O - Some Numbers Against Common Opponents

Submitted by CoachW on November 19th, 2012 at 9:39 PM

Michigan and Ohio have played four common opponents this season:  Michigan State, Nebraska, Purdue, and Illinois.  I got to thinking about how the comparision between the teams via these common opponents might look like so I've thrown some numbers together.


Michigan State:

MIchigan played them at home, won 12-10.

  Michigan Opponent Differential
Rushing Yards 163 112 +51
Passing Yards 163 192 -29
Total Yards 326 304 +22
Turnovers 1 1 0

Ohio played them on the road, won 17-16.

  Ohio Opponent Differential
Rushing Yards 204 34 +170
Passing Yards 179 269


Total Yards 383 303 +80
Turnovers 3 0 -3



Michgan played them on the road, lost 23-9.

  Michigan Opponent Differential
Rushing Yards 95 160 -65
Passing Yards 93 166 -73
Total Yards 188 326 -138
Turnovers 3 2 -1

Ohio played them at home, won 63-38

  Ohio Opponent Differential
Rushing Yards 371 223 +148
Passing Yards 127 214 -87
Total Yards 498 437 +61
Turnovers 1 4 +3



MIchigan played them at home, won 44-13.

  Michigan Opponent Differential
Rushing Yards 304 56 +248
Passing Yards 105 157 -52
Total Yards 409 213 +196
Turnovers 1 4 +3

Ohio played them at home, won 29-22 (OT)

  Ohio Opponent Differential
Rushing Yards 152 117 +35
Passing Yards 190 230 -40
Total Yards 342 347 -5
Turnovers 4 1 -3



Michigan played them at home, won 45-0.

  Michigan Opponent Differential
Rushing Yards 353 105 +248
Passing Yards 174 29 +145
Total Yards 527 134 +393
Turnovers 1 2 +1

Ohio played them at home, won 52-22.

  Ohio Opponent Differential
Rushing Yards 330 74 +256
Passing Yards 237 96 +141
Total Yards 567 170 +397
Turnovers 2 1 -1


Some totals for all four games, Michigan first:

  MIchigan Opponents Differential
Points Scored 110 46 +64
Rushing Yards 915 433 +482
Passing Yards 535 544 -9
Total Yards 1450 977 +473
Turnovers 6 9 +3

And Ohio:

  Ohio Opponents Differential
Points Scored 161 98 +63
Rushing Yards 1057 448 +609
Passing Yards 733 809 -76
Total Yards 1787 1257 +530
Turnovers 10 6 -4


A few things that jump out to me right off the bat are the point differentials and the turnover differentials.  The point differentials are almost identical.  Ohio scores more points than we do but also give up more at about the same rate.  Turnovers, however, are completely opposite.  They have managed to win all four games with a negative differential, while we have been on the positive side and lose a game (yes huge caveats apply to the Nebraska game for obvious reasons, but M was still only -1 in TOs that game).


So, what do all these numbers mean?  Not much, probably.  None of these games take into account the new Devin throwing/Denard running offensive machine.  Gallon and Rountree have both stepped things up in the last 2-3 weeks (I'm sure DG has had something to do with that as well).  Fitz is now out.  A lot has changed on our side since any of the above numbers happened.  I don't know much about what's happened on their side other than what I see on Sportscenter.


OSU seems to be a bit bipolar to me.  They blow out a solid Nebraska team yet have to go to overtime to dispatch Danny Hope's hapless Boilermakers?  Obviously they are a good team, but how good?  Is the new Devin-Denard Fushion Cuisine Offense really as good as it's been, or is it more the result of overmatched foes with poor defenses?  What do you guys think?


EDIT - Sorry I posted before I was done, I didn't know "save" meant "publish". 



November 19th, 2012 at 11:37 PM ^

I think expectation-wise, this might be the most even matchup since 2006. That's what it feels like, though gameday atmosphere can always change that. Last year wasn't expected to be as close as it was.


November 19th, 2012 at 11:43 PM ^

Interesting comparisons.

The Purdue overtime game is a little bit misleading.  Two breakdown plays (83 yard pass and 100 yard kickoff return) make the game look close, but it wasn't.  And the Miller injury, granted he wasn't playing lights out before he went down.

The Illinois game is also a little misleading.  Scheelhause went down with an injury vs. Michigan.  We would have still dismantled them, but with their star quarterback out they had no change of putting up points against us.  They were driving against us early and would have probably put up a touchdown, or at the very least a few field goals.

And dear lord I would have actually liked to see Denard not get injured vs. Nebraska, even if that still meant a loss.  A full stat sheet would have made the litmus test much more clear when breaking down our chances this Saturday.

Taken that into account, like what's been said, it's very comparable.  Ohio seems to play down (or up, in Nebraska's case) to the level of their opponents. 

Blue since birth

November 20th, 2012 at 12:45 AM ^

The Nebraska game wasn't exactly a blowout for Ohio until late in that game. I don't recall all of the specifics, but it was a shootout and a one score game until late in the 3rd quarter IIRC. Sometime after that (and Burkhead getting hurt) Nebraska's offense seemed to stall and Ohio pulled away from them.

I thought the Penn St and Wiscy games were more impressive wins.

... They also squeaked by Indiana and Cal FWIW.


November 20th, 2012 at 2:25 AM ^

Devin has looked good, but I hope he can look as good against Ohio's D. I really think the wildcard for us is Funchess. If we can get him going, it'll be a long day for their defense. On the flip side, if they get Stoneburner going....shit. In this game there will actually be a Devin Smith playing and let's pray to god he doesn't end up wide open on a deep route.