A Look At The Big Ten Remaining Schedules #4

Submitted by GOLBOGM on February 24th, 2013 at 11:37 PM

Take four of a look at the remaining schedules:

This is long... if that's not for you you will dislike this...

Past Versions:

#1:http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules

#2: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-2

#3: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-3

Current Standings:

TEAM RECORD
Indiana 12-2
Michigan St 11-4
Michigan 10-4
Wisconsin 10-4
Ohio St 10-5
Illinois 7-8
Minnesota 6-8
Iowa 6-8
Purdue 6-8
Nebraska 4-10
Northwestern 4-11
Penn St 0-14

 

Who has the hardest schedule?:

Below are the remaining schedules:

(Note: Below the game are my predicted odds of a victory)

  GAME 15 GAME 16 GAME 17 GAME 18
INDIANA @ MINNESOTA IOWA OHIO ST @ MICHIGAN
75% 85% 75% 50%
MICHIGAN ST N/A @ MICHIGAN WISCONSIN NORTHWESTERN
  50% 75% 95%
MICHIGAN @ PENN ST MICHIGAN ST @ PURDUE INDIANA
95% 50% 75% 50%
WISCONSIN NEBRASKA PURDUE @ MICHIGAN ST @ PENN ST
95% 85% 25% 95%
OHIO ST N/A @ NORTHWESTERN @ INDIANA ILLINOIS
  95% 25% 75%

 

Last time I started something new by associating a score with each team. The higher the score the harder the opponent is. Since there are 12 teams in the Big Ten the top team gets 12 points, and the lowest team gets 1 point. Any tie ranking all teams get the highest possible rank (both Michigan and Wisconsin are the 3rdhardest team). Below is that ranking.

TEAM PTS
Indiana 12
Michigan St 11
Michigan 10
Wisconsin 10
Ohio St 8
Illinois 7
Minnesota 6
Iowa 6
Purdue 6
Nebraska 3
Northwestern 2
Penn St 1

 

Teams get a bonus three points for playing on the road- so Michigan’s score for an opponent rises by three if the game is in Ann Arbor.  Below are the point rankings for each teams remaining schedule- included is an average ranking since two teams have three games left, and three have four:

  Game 15 Game 16 Game 17 Game 18 Total Average
Indiana 9 6 8 13 36 9.0
Michigan St NA 13 10 2 25 8.33
Michigan 4 11 9 12 36 9.0
Wisconsin 3 6 14 4 27 6.75
Ohio St NA 5 15 6 26 8.67

Wisconsin has the easiest schedule left- but they play at MSU- so I do believe they are very likely to still lose a game.  The rest of the schedules are pretty similar.  And even though Michigan's schedule is tough- that is a good thing since we need to beat the top teams to have a good shot at a championship- and the games are at home- so that is good.

Below is a more traditional look at the remaining schedules:

  RD HM Vs. Top-5 Vs. Mid-4 Vs. Bot-3
INDIANA 2 2 2 2 0
MICHIGAN ST 1 2 2 0 1
MICHIGAN 2 2 2 1 1
WISCONSIN 2 2 1 1 2
OHIO ST 2 1 1 1 1

Northwestern has joined Nebraska and Penn St as bottom teams- it's hard not to feel bad for Northwestern...

Thoughts on remaining teams:

Indiana: Huge win against MSU- now they are very much in the drivers seat.  If they escape in Minnesota they have two home games- which should be wins despite being tough.  If they don't lose before Michigan they win the conference- if they have one loss before Michigan that game become enormous.  If they lose twice before Michigan that game becomes incredibly enormous.  I think they should win all the games before Michigan- but tbeing a favorite in all three games doesn't mean that it is very likely.  I think Minnesota and OSU have a 1/4 chance of winning, and Iowa is a long shot.  Let's hope they lose at least one.

Michigan State: Thank god for that OSU game!  MSU is tied with us in the loss column and play us at home.  If they finish ahead of us they really earned it- but they quickly went from co-favorites to being in a very tough position.  Northwestern should be an easy win, but Wisconsin could also give them trouble.  I may be optomistic giving them 50% chance of winning in AA given their beat-down of us before- but it looks like they will come in on the slide as we are coming in after sorting some issues out.

Michigan: Glad other teams have their tough stretches to end the year.  The two road games, PSU and Purdue are must wins (as are all games) and road must-wins are never easy... The big game is obviously MSU.  Let's hope the game in EL was a low-point, because MSU losses have made it so that we have a great chance to leap-frog our in-state rival coming up.

Wisconsin: Their schedule is very easy compared to the other 4 teams.  Home games against Nebraska and Purdue should be wins (although Purdue could be tough), and at PSU shouldn't be an issue.  The game at MSU is huge.  If they win they should have a decent chance at a co-champ situation, if they lose all hope is likely lost.

Ohio State: Thanks for MSU!  With 5-losses they need a lot of luck, so they have very little chance of getting a co-championship.  Essentially they have to hope Wiscy loses to MSU, and then MSU loses to Michigan, while Michigan beats Indiana, while Indiana also loses two other games.  Seem unlikely?  Well so are their title hopes...

Championship Odds:

    

  16-2 15-3 14-4 13-5 12-6 or Worse
INDIANA 20% 50% 25% 4% 1%
MICHIGAN ST N/A N/A 40% 55% 5%
MICHIGAN N/A N/A 25% 50% 25%
WISCONSIN N/A N/A 15% 65% 20%
OHIO ST N/A N/A N/A 15% 85%

  ff

Michigan still needs some luck!  It is Indiana's title to lose.  At least we have Indiana and MSU at home- if we win both all we need is for Indiana to lose another game (which may not be probable- but is certainly not crazy).  Given our huge loss to MSU they still have an edge over us- so lets hope we protect Crisler!  Wisconsin is in similar shape to us- except playing at MSU they have harder odds despite easier other games.  OSU needs to much luck...

 

Comments

CWoodIsMyBoiii

February 25th, 2013 at 12:12 AM ^

Every time I look a the Big Ten standings, my mind automatically adds one win and takes one loss away from our record because I still can't get over that Wisconsin loss.  Damn you Ben Brust.....damn you.

GOLBOGM

February 25th, 2013 at 9:39 AM ^

I can see the logic in a 69% chance of winning- our home record the last two years is top-notch.  I gave the same odds of beating MSU and Indiana- and we played Indiana reasonably close and got clobbered by MSU- so by saying I think they have equal chances of winning both games I am essentially saying I expect much better against MSU than last time- but after that game it is hard for me to be too confident.

Essentially MSU and Indiana are 50-50 to me.  I say 25% chance we win both, 50% we split, 25% we lose both. 

I thought about giving Pomweray odds instead of my own guesses- maybe that would be a good add for next time (or next year if I do it then too).

Tater

February 25th, 2013 at 10:14 AM ^

Michigan has revenge games at home against Sparty and Indiana.  I definitely like Michigan over Sparty because the Wolverines played so badly up in EL.  Indiana is beatable.  PSU and Purdue should be victories for Michigan.  I think the Wolverines go at least 3-1 for this stretch, and wouldn't be surprised if they took all four.