A Look At The Big Ten Remaining Schedules #3

Submitted by GOLBOGM on February 17th, 2013 at 11:21 PM

Take three of a look at the remaining schedules:

This is long... if that's not for you you will dislike this...

Past Versions:

#1:http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules

#2: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-2

Current Standings:

Team Record
Indiana 11-2
Michigan State 11-2
Wisconsin 9-4
Michigan 9-4
Ohio State 8-5
Minnesota 6-7
Illinois 6-7
Iowa 6-7
Purdue 5-8
Northwestern 4-9
Nebraska 3-10
Penn State 0-13

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html

I may have screwed up the 6-7 order- it is unclear if 2-2 is better than 1-1 given the description- but that is not too important...

Who has the hardest schedule?:

I decided to try something new here and associate a score with each team.  The higher the score the harder the opponent is.  Since there are 12 teams in the Big Ten the top team gets 12 points, and the lowest team gets 1 point.  Any tie ranking all teams get the highest possible rank (both MSU and Indiana are “top team” in this ranking).  Below is that ranking.

Team Score
Indiana 12
Michigan St 12
Wisconsin 10
Michigan 10
Ohio St 8
Minnesota 7
Illinois 7
Iowa 7
Purdue 4
NW 3
Nebraska 2
Penn St 1

Next I determined that a road game should adjust the rankings.  A team’s road score is their regular score +3.  I settled on 3 arbitrarily because it seemed like the best fit.  Michigan and Wisconsin on the road seem barely harder than Indiana or Michigan State at home, while Minnesota/Illinois/Iowa on the road seem to be about the same strength as Wisconsin or Michigan at home.  This is definitely quite subjective choosing three points- but it is simple.  Some teams are much stronger at home and you could argue deserve and even bigger bump than three, while some play at relatively similar strength home or away.  Perhaps Indiana and Michigan State should be +5 on the road because beating a top-10 team on the road is so difficult, while Penn State still is relatively terrible at home…. Anyway, I settled on three!

Below is each of the top-5 teams remaining schedules.  Below each opponent is the regular score and advanced score.  The regular score does not adjust for home/away, while the advanced score adds 3 points for each away game.  If you don’t like the advanced score- disregard it.

  GAME 14 GAME 15 GAME 16 GAME 17 GAME 18 TOTAL
INDIANA @MICHIGAN ST @MINNESOTA IOWA OHIO ST @MICHIGAN  
Regular 12 7 7 8 10 44
Advanced 15 10 7 8 13 53
             
MICHIGAN ST INDIANA @OHIO ST @MICHIGAN WISCONSIN NW  
Regular 12 8 10 10 3 43
Advanced 12 11 13 10 3 49
             
WISCONSIN @NW NEBRASKA PURDUE @MICHIGAN ST @PSU  
Regular 3 2 4 12 1 22
Advanced 6 2 4 15 4 31
             
MICHIGAN ILLINOIS @PSU MICHIGAN ST @PURDUE INDIANA  
Regular 7 1 12 4 12 36
Advanced 7 4 12 7 12 42
             
OHIO ST MINNESOTA MICHIGAN ST @NW @INDIANA ILLINOIS  
Regular 7 12 3 12 7 41
Advanced 7 12 6 15 7 47

To show you a little bit easier I order the schedules from hardest to easiest below:

Team Regular Advanced
Indiana 44 53
Michigan St 43 49
Ohio St 41 47
Michigan 36 42
Wisconsin 22 31

Those numbers seem about right- Wisconsin has it pretty easy, Michigan not too bad, and the rest have it pretty rough...

Next I looked more traditionally at the remaining schedules- looking at: the number of home games compared to road games, the number of games vs top-5 teams (note: all parenthesis show home games, road games), the number of games vs the middle-5 teams, and finally the games vs Nebraska and Penn State.  Perhaps it’s not the best split with 5/5/2- arguments could be made to put the split at several points but that’s what I chose (mostly because the first two versions used those splits).

  Home Games Road Games Vs. Top-5 Vs. Mid-5 Vs. Bot-2
Indiana 2 3 3 (1,2) 2 (1,1) 0
Michigan St 3 2 4 (2,2) 1 (1,0) 0
Wisconsin 2 3 1 (0,1) 2 (1,1) 2 (1,1)
Michigan 3 2 2 (2,0) 2 (1,1) 1 (0,1)
Ohio State 3 2 2 (1,1) 3 (2,1) 0

Enough data/tables… onto opinion:

Indiana:

Indiana has the hardest schedule left.  They play fewer home games than everyone but Wisconsin, and only two of their opponents are not fellow top-5 teams-one team is Iowa, who has been playing very well and has lost several very close games, and the other is at Minnesota.  They have no easy games left and each game is “losable” to some degree.  If you told me Indiana lost any of those games I would not be shocked- and that is not a good way to end the season.  Obviously the most important game is at Michigan State coming up.  MSU gets the edge at home- which means Indiana will have to pull an upset to be number 1.  At Minnesota will be tough, and Iowa at home could be a sleeper game if they get caught looking ahead.  They wrap up at home against OSU which will essentially be a must-win with a road game in Ann Arbor wrapping up the season.  It’s hard to imagine the final game not determining the champion in some fashion.  If Indiana beats MSU that final game could be sole possession of first- if not it will determine who will be champion in some way with Michigan hopefully having a shot for a co-championship in that game.

Michigan State:

The second toughest schedule according to the point systems.  Looking at the traditional details it looks just as hard as Indiana however.  Only one game is not against a top-5 team and that is the final game at home against Northwestern.  That last game could determine the championship as well.  It’s hard to imagine them not losing at least one game.  Indiana at home coming up next is huge (covered above) and then OSU and Michigan on the road will be daunting.  OSU is a little hard to figure out, and they beat down Michigan in EL, so these games may play out to be less challenging than they may appear.   If they lose to Indiana they have to win-out at home and at least split those road games to still feel comfortable- if they beat Indiana a split in the road games becomes easier to swallow- but both of those situations assume a win against Wisconsin which will not be easy either.

Wisconsin:

No matter how you slice it their remaining schedule is incredibly easy.  They play the 4 lowest teams in the conference, and while they play NW and PSU on the road neither of those should be games they should lose.  They play at home against Nebraska and Purdue- and both of those should be wins.  Purdue is probably the only game that will be a serious challenge other than Michigan State.  With 4 losses the MSU game is a must-win (as are all their games).  On the road they are not favored to win, but if they pull it off they have to hope MSU loses at least one other game, and Indiana also loses 2.  If they beat MSU and take care of the games they should it is not too unlikely they have a shot at being co-champs.  (Writing that made me throw-up a little…)

Michigan:

As is the case with Wisconsin Michigan needs to win out.  Indiana on the road was close, and then we fought out a win against OSU, before the two most frustrating games all year in Madison and EL.  Let’s hope more spacing of games and an easier schedule (particularly compared to what we just went through) will allow us to get back to top-form.  A lot of questions remain: were we significantly overrated before?  Will Morgan be at full strength?  Will the freshman be able to step-it-up?  Are Indiana, and particularly Michigan State, a clear step-up from us?  Is this team on the rebound- or are we still slumping?  Have teams played great games against us- or is our defense underperforming and is that just foolish optimism?

The answers to those questions will come in time- that is, unless we lose to Illinois or at Penn State.  Both games should be wins- and if we lose either of those games our chance for a championship erode- and our stock will be sliding fast.  If we get through those games we still likely need to win out.  Last analysis I said I expected a loss at MSU and that we could be said to be favored the rest of the way.  Our play at EL changed that outlook significantly.  MSU in Ann Arbor will be very intense- and if we win we have a good shot- if we lose it’s all over for co-champ talk most likely.  Plus, if we lose, MSU will very possibly go into the last week looking like favorites- a lot will be at stake.  Most fans, and presumably the team, will be looking to show that the game in EL was a terrible hiccup; otherwise that game will possibly be a very low point of the season.  If we do beat MSU, and took care of business against Illinois and PSU we have a sleeper game at Purdue (who last year cost us an outright title by being the only home loss) before closing against Indiana at home.  Worst case, we lost to MSU (and maybe even one of the other three games) and play Indiana with no-chance to win a title- and they show us that they, and MSU, are the class of the conference.  Best-case, we took care of business, righted the ship against MSU, and play at home against Indiana for a chance for being co-champs.  If that is the case we will have only lost at home once in the last two years, have lots of momentum, and have a good chance to beat Indiana- let’s hope that last scenario plays out!

Ohio State:

With five-losses OSU has almost no-chance.  It is hard to imagine both Indiana and MSU losing three times, and Wisconsin’s schedule looks like they will be at worst a 5-loss team meaning OSU has essentially no chance at being an outright champ- and almost no chance of a co-championship.  Plus, they have to play at Indiana and home against MSU.  Although, if you need to make up ground you want to play the teams you need to lose.  Minnesota at home, their next game, will be a challenge, and at Northwestern could be a sleeper game.  Most likely they end the year a game (or likely more) out- and the last game at Illinois will matter for seeding and if Illinois makes the dance.

OVERALL OUTLOOK:

I think we are looking at co-champs at 14-4.  Who those teams are is very hard to say.  Indiana will likely lose at MSU, and hopefully at Michigan as well.  At Minnesota, Iowa, and OSU will all be a challenge too- so even if they only lose one of the first games mentioned there is still a good shot they lose one of those.

Michigan State I think has the best chance because they play Indiana at home.  I think they are better than OSU and Michigan but will struggle to win both of those games, and may lose both.  After that they should beat Wisconsin and NW.  I think they have the best chance to go 15-3 and be alone on top of the charts.  It really comes down to whether or not we can beat them, in my opinion.

Wisconsin lucked into the easiest schedule to end the year.  Luckily for every other fan-base they should lose to MSU- and it’s hard to see 13-5 cutting it.  If they pull the upset- they have the four bottom teams left- let’s hope they slip up in one of those- because who wants to see Wisconsin win the championsip….

Michigan has long odds.  Granted I projected them losing to MSU and being in good shape last time, the nature of the last few weeks make it tough to be too optimistic at this point.  MSU and Indiana at home are very, very tough.  But if we want to be champs we need them to lose- so it’s good we play them- and good it is at home for both.  Illinois at home could be tough if we play like we have been also.  Let’s hope that we can show up and protect the home-court- because we need to!

Ohio State is too far out…

ODDS:

What I said above in nice simple, very subjective number form:

  16 - 2 15 - 3 14 - 4 13 - 5 12 - 6 or Worse
INDIANA 5% 15% 60% 19% 1%
MICHIGAN ST 10% 25% 60% 4% 1%
WISCONSIN NA NA 25% 60% 15%
MICHIGAN NA NA 20% 50% 30%
OHIO ST NA NA NA 2% 98%

Hope everyone liked it!

Comments

MGoDC

February 18th, 2013 at 2:38 AM ^

Yeah, the @OSU game too. If we start out going down by just 15 instead of 18 which is still a huge hole, we win that game. This team is so close to having only losses @ MSU and @ Ind which would put them in incredibly good shape. Frustrating that losing @WISC and @OSU due to an incredibly unlikely halfcourt shot and an incredibly flat start are going to cost a banner.

GOLBOGM

February 18th, 2013 at 9:43 AM ^

All games count the same.  If we lost to Wisconsin and trailed the whole game and got outplayed it would not be the one game that stuck out.  Last year it was the Purdue at home game that cost us the championship- when any of the other four loses could have meant a championship.

If we had beat Wisconsin obviously we'd be in better shape- plus Wisconsin would be out of it (like OSU)- making it a three team race which would have been very helpful.

It is so hard to beat top teams on the road.  MSU and Indiana have to do that now.  If they can't beat the top teams on the road it means we beat both and could share a title- if they can beat top teams on the road it means we lost one or both of those games and both teams will finish with great records- and deserve a title over us.

Ultimately for the tournament that will matter less since each game is neutral and we won't have to win on the road.  With a young team with six freshman who play that will be a good thing.  I think too many fans expect the top-team to win college games when the reality is road games are very, very hard to win.  The OSU and Wisconsin game are frustrating due to how we lost- but the reality is both are top-20 teams who protect their courts well- neither of them are a "bad loss" it's just frustrating how we lost.  This Michigan team couldn't prove it could win against top teams on the road- teams like that didn't "lose" a championship, they just didn't "earn" one- and that's the spot Michigan is in now.

saveferris

February 18th, 2013 at 8:40 AM ^

It does beat the conversations of a few seasons ago where the speculation was more about how much of a bubble team we were or if we were to make the tourney, where would we be seeded?

This program has come a long way in the past few years.

saveferris

February 18th, 2013 at 8:34 AM ^

let’s hope they slip up in one of those- because who wants to see Wisconsin win the championship

Well, I'd rather share a championship with Wisconsin than come up a game short to Sparty. I think we have to root for the Badgers over MSU because the way Ohio has been playing lately, I don't think we can count on them to beat any of the upper echelon teams.

That said, I want to believe that Michigan has what it takes to run the table, but I was at that Penn State game yesterday, and they do not look good right now. JB has his work cut out for him this week to get these guys back in synch for the stretch run.

GOLBOGM

February 18th, 2013 at 12:14 PM ^

I agree- better to have a title no matter who else is sharing it with you.  My bigger point was it'd be very frustrating to see Wisconsion sharing a title.  I don't mind any other team having the title (or a share of it) but Wisconsin having a share of it rubs me the wrong way this year.  Let's hope they slip up some other way in their easy remaining schedule and take care of MSU!

rmic2

February 18th, 2013 at 10:34 AM ^

We pull for msu right - because they can then lose to osu and us? If IU wins on Tuesday - I don't think anyone catches them. They won't lose at home, and at Minny is not all that tough. They could be up 2 games coming to AA.

MGoKereton

February 18th, 2013 at 1:13 PM ^

IU and MSU are both at 11-2.  We're at 9-4.  We need BOTH IU and MSU to drop two games and for us to win out.

Luckily, we play both of these teams once more.  If we win (quite a big 'if' considering our current play) both of these, we just need IU and MSU to both drop one game.

Even more luckily, MSU and IU play each other.  That means regardless, if we win out, we will be tied with one of these teams if IU/MSU wins every other game they should.  Who to root for tomorrow is the team most likely to drop one of their remaining games not against Michigan.

MSU:

IU

@OSU

@MICH

WISC

NW

IU:

@MSU

@MINN

IOWA

OSU

@MICH

 

Indiana doesn't really have difficult games outside of MSU and MICH.  @MINN could be interesting, but I don't feel comfortable relying on the Gophers.

MSU still has to go to OSU and has a moderately difficult game at home against Wisconsin.  They'll be favored to win both of those games, but I believe it's more probable for them to drop one of those two than Indiana dropping to the Gophers.

Therefore, I'll be hoping Sparty wins the game on Tuesday.  If everything goes according to plan, we'll have a 3-way tie between IU, MSU, and Michigan.  Plus we'll have quite the streak going into the tournament.  Woo.

 

Soulfire21

February 18th, 2013 at 9:30 PM ^

Assuming Michigan hands both of MSU and Indiana losses, we still want State to win over IU because IU probably won't lose against Iowa, Minny, or Ohio State, and we need to get them down to 4 losses.

State is much more likely to drop a game to OSU or Wisconsin IMO.

If we drop any game along the way, we are eliminated from contention for all intents and purposes.

Ideally, we win out and they each drop 3 games to fall behind us, but asking IU to lose two of Iowa, Minnesota, and Ohio State as well as State to lose two of Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Northwestern would be asking the impossible, IMO.

GOLBOGM

February 18th, 2013 at 9:48 PM ^

Not only is it very unlikely both lose three- Wisconsin has a decent chance of wining out (especially in that scenario with them beating MSU so that State has three losses).  Wisconsin is in the same position we are with an easier schedule.  Essentially no way we could be sole champion of the conference.

Jim Delany's C…

February 20th, 2013 at 4:49 PM ^

As crazy as it would be, I think Iowa gives Indiana a run, even in Bloomington. Iowa kept it close when they were at home, and with the way their schedule finishes out, that game will be huge for them if they want to play themselves into the Big Dance, so they'll be fired up. 

There's no question about it that Michigan needs to win out. That Wisconsin loss became much, much worse coupled with the joke of a game we saw at MSU. Luckily the toughest games are at home, but I'm worried about this game against Illinois coming up. They're playing well lately, and Michigan is playing...well, pretty poorly.

Ohio could be a huge player in helping Michigan out, even if they themselves can't really compete for the Big Ten regular season at this point. If they can play as well as they did against Michigan, they have a shot at Indiana and definitely at home against MSU. If those somehow become Ohio victories, Michigan may be in better shape than we all think.

Wisconsin thanking the Big Ten scheduling committee.