A Look At The Big Ten Remaining Schedules #2

Submitted by GOLBOGM on February 10th, 2013 at 5:50 PM

Part one last weekend: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules

WARNING:

This is long- if you don't like that move on....

First up current standings:

  WON LOST
INDIANA 9 2
MSU 9 2
MICH 8 3
WISC 8 3
OSU 7 4
MINN 5 5
PURD 5 6
IOWA 4 7
NW 4 7
ILL 3 7
NEB 3 8
PSU 0 11

....shakes fist at Wisconsin.....

Next- upcoming schedules, with some scheudle notes:

  INDIANA MICH ST MICHIGAN WISCONSIN OHIO
GAME 12 NEB (3-8) MICH (8-3)  @MSU (9-2) @MINN (5-5) NW (4-7)
GAME 13 PURD (5-6) @NEB (3-8) PSU (0-11) OSU (7-4) @WISC (8-3)
GAME 14 @MSU (9-2) INDIANA (9-2) ILL (3-7) @NW (4-7) MINN (5-5)
GAME 15 @MINN (5-5) @OSU (7-4) @PSU (0-11) NEB (3-8) MSU (9-2)
GAME 16 IOWA (4-7) @MICH (8-3) MSU (9-2) PURD (5-6) @NW (4-7)
GAME 17 OSU (7-4) WISC (8-3) @PURD (5-6) @MSU (9-2)  @IND (9-2)
GAME 18 @MICH (8-3) NW (4-7) IND (9-2) @PSU (0-11) ILL (3-7)
           
HOME 4 4 4 3 4
ROAD 3 3 3 4 3
           
vs. top5 3 5 3 2 3
rd top5 2 2 1 1 2
hm top5 1 3 2 1 1
           
vs. mid5 3 1 2 3 4

You may have noticed from last week I dropped Minnesota.  With 5-losses their odds of competing for a crown have faded too far to include them this time around.

NOTES:

Projected wins and losses are done by better than 50% or worse than 50% to win that game.  After each team’s write-up I will delve into deeper odds (since most teams win/lose unpredictable games obviously- and you can project which games those could be)- so the projected final is if every expected win is a win and every expected loss is a loss...

INDIANA:

Projected Wins: NEB, PURD, @ MINN, IOWA, OSU

Projected Losses: @MSU, @ MICH

Simplified Projected Final: 14-4

Middle of the pack schedule of remaining teams- road games at Michigan and Michigan State are very tough- they win one or both of those their chances of winning the conference shoot up.  Sleeper games- At Minnesota, and OSU and Iowa at home- all are possible L’s- they let any of those games slip their chance at the title could slip with it.

MSU:

Projected Wins: MICH, @ NEB, IND, WISC, NW

Projected Losses: @ OSU, @ UM

Simplified Projected Final: 14-4

Hardest schedule of remaining teams- at least 3 of the 5 games against top 5 are at home- but all three of those home games- Michigan, Indiana, and Wisconsin are all very, very losable.  Road games at Ohio St. and at Michigan are both likely losses.  Their 14-4 projection is a little tenuous.  While they are favored in my opinion in the three top home games my guess is that there is a slightly better than 50-50 chance one of those becomes losses and they end at 13-5.

MICH:

Projected Wins: PSU, ILL, @ PSU, MSU, @ PURD, IND

Projected Losses: @MSU

Simplified Projected Final: 14-4

Bold potentially, but the schedule is Michigan’s friend relative to other top-5 teams.  Splitting against MSU seems likely, and the final home game against Indiana very well could decide the conference.  Sleeper game is at Purdue, maybe home at Illinois fighting for the tournament at-large.  PSU twice is a very pleasant upcoming stretch.

WISC:

Projected Wins: @ NW, NEB, PURD, @ PSU

Projected Losses: @ MINN, OSU, @ MSU

Simplified Projected Final: 12-6

Maybe a little low on Wisconsin because of sheer madness of thinking about the last game but I think they have a tougher chance at winning the conference.  Their projected wins are all safe bets- although home at Purdue could be a sleeper game.  Home at OSU I think they lose because I think OSU is a very good team, and will guard the 3’s better than we did- and I don’t think they have an answer for Thomas- they lost at Ohio State by nine and even though the next game will likely be close I say they lose.  At Minnesota very well could be a win- but I think Minnesota will be playing for a lot in that game and will hold out at home.  At MSU seems very likely to be a loss.

OSU:

Projected Wins: NW, @ WISC, MINN, MSU, @ NW, ILL

Projected Losses: @ IND

Projected Final: 13-5

Another bold predicted finish.  Although I favor them against Wisconsin on the road and MSU at home it is 50-50 or so one will be a loss.  At Indiana will likely be a loss, and home against an Illinois team fighting for the tournament and away at NW could be tough- as could Minnesota.  They have a tough schedule- but are the favorites in most of them.  If they hold onto all of the games I have them favored in they could definitely compete; however, they have a lot of tough games that could be road blocks for them.  Plus, with 4 losses already they are realistically shooting for a split crown most likely.

OVERALL:

 I have a 3 way tie at 14-4 in conference with Indiana, MSU, and Michigan.  But all 14-4 projections are not equal.

One, Indiana and MSU are projected to lose 2 games and UM (OSU also) only 1.  Projecting fewer losses always leaves more room for error.  Even though Wisconsin’s schedule is easier than most of the other top-5’s I do see them falling off. 

MSU has likely the hardest schedule left.  5 games against the top-5, but only two on the road; however, those are the two I see them losing (OSU and Michigan).  I think those are most likely losses, and the chance they lose 1 out of: Michigan at home, Indiana at home, and Wisconsin at home seem decently high.

Indiana also has a tough schedule.  They close at Michigan a distinct disadvantage in that it is the hardest last game of a top-5 (although Michigan home against Indiana obviously is close).  Losing at Michigan and Michigan State seems most likely.  At Minnesota and home against OSU/Iowa/Purdue could all be tricky though.  They could also win one of the games (or both) in the state of Michigan however, so their 14-4 to me seems more likely than MSU’s.

Michigan has perhaps the easiest schedule (Wisconsin could be a bit easier) which is why I have one more loss predcted.  Unfortunately it is the next game- @ MSU.  I have predicted wins at home against MSU and Indiana as well- both of which are hard games.  The rest is easier- 2 games against PSU, and home against Illinois are likely wins, and @ Purdue is hard but winnable.  I actually think Michigan finishing with a loss or less is as likely or better than both MSU and Indiana due to the schedule.

OSU is the other team I said has 1 loss- but they will be hard pressed to do it.  The @ Indiana game is the projected loss; however, the odds of them losing at least one of: @ Wisconsin, Minnesota, MSU, or Illinois seem to be high.  So they have the hardest chances in my opinion to win the conference- particularly outright of any team besides Wisconsin. 

Wisconsin may have the easiest schedule looking at top-5 games (only 2); however, those games (OSU at home and @ MSU) are both games I think they are more likely to lose.  Plus, the next game, @ Minnesota they have likely slightly better than 50% chance of losing.  Although the rest of the schedule: NW home and away, Nebraska t home, Purdue at home, and at PSU seem very likely to be wins- and although they could lose 1- most likely @ NW or home at Purdue they should be able to win all of those- and to win the conference they have to.

OVERALL ODDS:

Note: I give the odds I estimate as well as the most likely outcome to reach that won-lost record.

  14-2 15-3 14-4 13-5 12-6 Worse
INDIANA <1% 15% 35% 45% 4% 1%
  win out lose @UM or @MSU  lose both @UM and @MSU lose @UM and @MSU and 1 of: PURD, Iowa, OSU, and @Minn both big away games and 2 of others both big away games and 3 of others
MSU <1% 10% 40% 45% 4% 1%
  win out lose @UM or @OSU  lose both @UM and @OSU lose @UM and @OSU and 1 of: UM, IND, WISC both big away games and 2 of others both big away games and 3 of others
MICHIGAN N/A 5% 45% 45% 4% 1%
  already has 3 losses win out lose @MSU only lose @MSU and 1 of: MSU, IND, PURD lose @MSU, and 2 of others lose @MSU and 3 of others
OSU N/A N/A 5% 25% 50% 25%
  already has 4 losses already has 4 losses win out lose @IND only lose @IND and 1 of: @WISC, Minn, MSU, and ILL lose @IND and 2 of others
WISCONSIN N/A <1% 5% 30% 60% 5%
  already has 3 losses win out lose only @MSU lose @MSU, and 1 of: @Minn, OSU, @NW, Purdue lose @MSU, and 2 of others lose @MSU and 3 of others
         

In conclustion (if you have read this far):

I see very little chance of MSU or IND winning out- obviously if they do they win the conference.

I see three teams with a shot at 3 losses (Wisconsin not so much)- in Michigan, Indiana, and Michigan State.  None of these teams are likely to go 15-3 in my opinion- with Michigan a 5% chance, MSU twice that, and Indiana 3 times that.

Most likely the winner (or co-champs) will be 14-4.  All three of Michigan, Indiana, and Michigan State have a 50% chance of going 14-4.  So I have Indiana as a slight favorite, followed closely by Michigan State and Michigan.  OSU with 4-losses already is unlikely to win with a 2 game hole, and Wisconsin I see as falling off a bit, and only having a very outside chance at splitting a championship at 14-4.  There are so many tough games left that it's possible 13-5 may be co-champ worthy again- but with two 9-2 teams, and Michigan's schedule it seems very unlikely- although you never know with the BigTen and looking at all the hard games remaining it is possible we see a lot of upsets ahead.

Hope you all enjoyed- and GO BLUE!!!!  If we win at Michigan State coming up be very very pumped- and if we lose don't be do disheartened- the odds are still good for us if we can split with MSU and hold on at home against Indiana.  Also thank god for playing PSU twice!!!

Comments

UMFan1780

February 10th, 2013 at 6:16 PM ^

If these projections hold, wouldn't that make UM the three seed (like last year)? The tiebreaker goes to the record against the next highest rank (Wisky). We can't win that...damn, that half court shot keeps right on taking, doesn't it? I hate Wisconsin.

GOLBOGM

February 10th, 2013 at 8:32 PM ^

Technically yes- but that would be no fun to do....

http://www.bigten.org/sports/m-baskbl/spec-rel/100606aae.html

Indiana would have the tiebreaker over MSU, and Wisconsin over UM, and Minnesota over Purdue- all in two team ties.  Illinois, Iowa, and NW are all 4-7 now- and against eachother Iowa is 2-0 (both against NW), NW is 1-2 (beat ILL), and ILL is 0-1 so the it'd be Iowa>NW>ILL.

Seeding id season ended today"

1- IND, 2- MSU, 3- WISC, 4- MICH, 5- OSU, 6- MINN, 7- PURD, 8- IOWA, 9-NW, 10- ILL, 11- NEB, and 12- PSU

As it is currently set up MICH is not in a great place.  WOuld play OSU/PSU winner, followed by winenr of IND vs. Iowa/NW.  

Wisconsin in the 3 would get winner of Minn/Neb and then winner of MSU vs. Purd/Ill.

Indiana has it easy with Iowa or NW.  Wisc second easiest with Minn/Neb.  Then MSU with Purd or Illinois, and us hardest with PSU or OSU.  Of course the 4 should have the hardest route- but I would so much rather have Minn/Neb than OSU (unless PSU went nuts).

Obviously this is ver yearly and will change- but it will be very important to keep a look out for seeding in the Big Ten tournament.

GOLBOGM

February 10th, 2013 at 8:41 PM ^

Subjective GOLBOGM agrees

Objective GOLBOGM thinks MSU is playing great basketball right now.  

Looking purely at losses Michigan has a better resume in my opinion:

Michigan big wins: Pitt neutral by 5, K State neutral by 14, NCST by 7 (becoming less impressive), @ Minnesota b 8 (becoming less impressive),  OSU by 2 in OT

Michigan losses- @Indiana by 8, @Wisconsin by 3 in OT, and @OSU by 3

Michigan State big wins: KU neutral by 3 (before they lost to TCU and stopped being good), OSU by 3, @Wisconsin by 2, Minnesota by 11 (becoming less impressive)

Michigan State losses- UConn in Germany by 4, @Miami (YTM) by 8, @Minnesota by 13, and @Indiana by 5.

Those are very very similar in my opinion.  Michigan on paper in many ways has an edge- but this game is at MSU- they have to be the objective pick.  We should win at home later though- a split seems most likely.

I say we have a 40% chance to win @MSU, and they only have a 30% chance to win @MICH since we are a little bit better- but they should win at home.

I hope we win though!  If we do our path becomes much much better!!

Soulfire21

February 10th, 2013 at 7:09 PM ^

If we look anything like we have in the past 3-4 games, it's going to take something divine to win @MSU on Tuesday because Izzo has them playing the best basketball in the conference right now, and this is some of our worst.  May have caught each other at a bad time.

We really, really need GRIII to re-appear.

Don

February 10th, 2013 at 9:52 PM ^

The same applies to Stauskas when we're on the road against good teams.

In the losses at OSU, IU, and Wisconsin, Stauskas has played a total of 96 minutes, and is 5-20 overall and 2-13 from the three. Considering the number of minutes he's gotten, a total of 12 points is horrible, but that's what you get from the vast majority of pure freshman in pressure road environments. All that Game Blouses hype is premature.

funkywolve

February 10th, 2013 at 7:34 PM ^

If there was ever a year to get one of the top 4 seeds, this is it.  I can't see any team winning 4 games in a row to win the tourney this year.  The 5th seed is going to be a pretty solid team and have a major uphill battle to win the tourney.  Not to mention, that 4 vs 5 game is going to be a great game in the quarterfinals.

There's a good chance someone is going to have to play Illinois in the quarterfinals.  Not that Illinois is a great team, but when they decide to show up they've shown they can play with just about any team in the conference.

GOLBOGM

February 10th, 2013 at 9:10 PM ^

I wouldn't mind Wisconsin at a neutral site- OSU is the team I most want to avoid to be honest.  Even if we win agaisnt them they wear us down more than any other team and would make the next game harder than any other opponent would in that first game.  No matter what tournament games will be very hard- I'm not too concerned about hwat will happen with the seeding at this point- I'm mostly focused on winning the regular season.  I'd rather win the regular season and have a somewhat dissapointing big ten tournament than win the touranament but be a game plus out of the regular season championship.

Unless we fall out of the top 4 and have to play a first day game I will be ok no matter what.

funkywolve

February 10th, 2013 at 10:04 PM ^

OSU:  UM just does't seem to match up very well against ohio.  IU was scoring from both inside and outside today.  Michigan doesn't have that inside punch like IU does with Zeller.

I'd rather win the regular season title as well, but the Big Ten tourney is going to be extremely entertaining.  Some of the quarterfinal matchup's are going to be really good.

GOLBOGM

February 10th, 2013 at 9:07 PM ^

That's fair.  I am not as down on UM as many people seem to be.  We lost three road games by a combined 14 points.  OSU matches up well against us and played an amazing game at home to beat us- after we came out flat as can be.  Indiana won by 8 at home- you don't often beat top 5 teams at home, and WISC beat us at home- like they have 4 of the other last 5 times top-5 teams played there- and they needed a crazy half court shot to win- and we missed many layups.

@MSU will be a great test- if we win we are very legit- if we lose though it won't mean much.  It'd be grat if we beat the top BigTen teams on the road- and would mean we are elite- but losing them does not mean we aren't the top team in-conference or a great team.  The games we lost were all a top game by our opponents and all were close- and all were on the road.  Last year we only lost to Purdue at home and we are much improved this year.  Can we lose a home game- yes, but we should be favored in both.  Look at my odds for each win percentage- I do give a decent chacne of losing one of those games anyway.

aiglick

February 10th, 2013 at 9:39 PM ^

Very good analysis.

Don't think the team can afford to take any team lightly after what happened to the Top 5 this week. Even though they are the worst team in the Big Ten PSU could still beat somebody however remote that chance. Agree though if we want anybody twice over this stretch that is the program.

StephenRKass

February 11th, 2013 at 12:41 PM ^

I love reading stuff like this. There are so many variables:

  • Will McGary continue to get better, including better defense?
  • Will Morgan be able to play well 5 - 10 minutes tomorrow?
  • Will GRIII & Stauskas get back to contributing?
  • Will Burke & Hardaway continue to play at the high place they've been?