If I have to put my money - I would bet that Penn State will implode and Michigan will catch fire. OSU will perform as per expectation (which includes one loss in their B10 schedule), Wisc will perform marginally below expectation (lose to OSU, lose one more), Iowa will significantly disappoint and Michigan will beat everybody except Wisc and OSU.

This is just my accumulated impression after past four weeks of game action.

First Tier: OSU - 7-1,

Second Tier: Wisc 6-2, Michigan - 6-2

Third Tier: NW, Iowa, PSU: 3 losses, MSU: 3-4 losses

Fourth Tier: Purdue, Minnesota, Indiana, Illinois - who cares.

Don't have the time to predict the entire Big Ten, but I will provide my thoughts on Michigan.

The only real way to do this is a decision tree-like model:

If we beat Indiana and cover the spread (~14 point favorites = likely chance):

Wins: MSU, Illinois, Purdue, 2 of the 4 "big" games (OSU, Iowa, Wiscy, PSU)

Losses: 2 of the 4 "big" games (OSU, Iowa, Wiscy, PSU)

If we either beat Indiana and don't cover the spread or lose to Indiana:

Wins: Illinois, Purdue, 1 "shocker" (e.g., Wiscy, Iowa, OSU, etc.)

Losses: All the remaining games

My logic on this is if we go on the road and beat Indiana handily = this team is for real and won't collapse like last year's team.  That'd put us at 10-2 for the season.

If we go on the road and lose to Indiana, our record works out to 7-5.  If we beat Indiana but don't cover the spread - 8-4. 

Of course we need our guys to stay healthy and focused and anything can happen - but I'd say a reasonable expectation is somewhere between 8-4 and 10-2. 

Big Ten will be like this:

1. OSU (7-1) (get an upset similar to Purdue game)

2. Wisconsin (6-2)

3. Michigan (6-2) (lose to Wisconsin and OSU)

4. Iowa (5-3)

5. MSU (5-3)

6. NW (4-4)

7. PSU (4-4)

8 - 11. Who cares

There are three unknowns for me in our analysis.

1. One variation is that I see Michigan possibly winning vs. Penn State, but also possibly losing vs. one of the expected wins (Illinois, Indiana, Minnesota, Purdue, MSU, & Iowa.) I am not convinced that Penn State will have a good year, after seeing their performance against Temple. And the next week or two will shake out pretenders and dark horses in the Big Ten.
2. I believe, as stated in numerous other threads, that our defense, being very young, has the potential to improve at a high level over the season. If this, in fact, does occur, and our defense improves from "bad" to "meh,", I believe Michigan will be the clear over-achiever, pushing us to 6 - 2 Big Ten, 10 - 2 overall.
3. Because of our lack of depth in several areas, the secondary and the linebacker corps in particular, Michigan is especially vulnerable to injury. If we lose any two of Mouton, Cam Gordon, or Rogers, let alone Mike Martin or Roh, I believe we would drop to 4 - 4 Big Ten, 8 - 4 overall. This still would be better than the 7 - 5 I predicted at the beginning of the season.

Michigan 8-0

.

.

.

MSU 0-8

OSU 0-8

I like your standings, but after seeing them, I think NW gets moved down. They have not impressed this year.  I still like Iowa better than Penn State, so Iowa 3rd.  I think 4th is a head to head between PSU and Michigan, and since I originally picked that as a loss, I'll stick with it, and have PSU 4th...but it could easily flip-flop.  Likewise, 5th could be the head to head between MSU and Michigan, and since I picked us to win, we'll go M then MSU. Then probably NW...with Indiana not completely sucking, Illinois looking pretty bad, Purdue looking like the worst team in the league except for the fact that Minnesota exists.

First tier: OSU. Only OSU has looked really good so far. I expect them to run the table unless Iowa or Wisconsin plays at a much higher level than they have so far.

(gap)

Second tier: Iowa, Wisconsin. Iowa has a good defense again, but the OL has been very weak. Wisconsin has no glaring weaknesses, but they seem to drift in and out of games and struggle to put weaker opponents away. They'll probably blow at least one game against a team they should beat on paper.

(smaller gap)

Third tier: PSU, MSU, UM in no order. PSU's offense is a train wreck, MSU can't stop the pass, and UM doesn't have the horses on defense. All 3 games among these teams are pure tossups.

(gap)

Fourth tier: NW, Ill. NW has been pretty mediocre across the board. Illinois seems to be improving on defense, but the offense is rebuilding.

(gap?)

Indiana is still a question mark, having played no real games. Their passing game looks ok, but they've struggled enough running the ball and on defense to suggest that these will be major weaknesses.

Fifth tier: Purdue, Minnesota. Purdue's offense was shaky when healthy and is now a disaster area with all the injuries. The defense has also been awful. Minnesota has been horrible, especially on defense where they are very green. It will be an upset if either of these teams beat anyone but each other or maybe Indiana. 

I'll be happy if the following scenario plays out:

Expected Wins - Indiana, Purdue, & Illinois

Toss-ups - MSU, Iowa, & Penn St.  (expecting to win 1 of the three)

Losses - Wisconsin & Ohio State

I'd like to see convincing wins over the first three, very close games against the toss-ups that end in Michigan's favor, and competitive games against the final two that demonstrate Michigan's ability to play with anyone.

I see the Big Ten endng up like this:

1.  Ohio State
2.  Iowa
3.  Michigan State
4.  Wisconsin (they will choke at least one game away - I know same could be said above)
5.  Michigan
6   Penn State
7.  NW
8-10.  who cares

I'm not sold on Wisconsin either.  They haven't looked very strong against BCS level competition.  I think Miami and ASU would be a toss up game and you see how well OSU played.  I'm not saying that the Badgers are awful, but I don't see any team in the Big 10 that looks exceptionally better than us other than OSU. 

Iowa has played shaky at times against BCS level competition as well, and the only explosive offense in the Big 10 other than Michgian is OSU.  Our run defense wasn't bad this weekend and Denard is a difference maker.  We are #2 in the country running the ball which is amazing.  And all things considered, we could very well go to Columbus undefeated. 

if you think NW,Iowa and PSU are on the same level as MSU and Mich.

RIght now (barring injuries) MSU is ahead of us but it will still be a close. Michigan takes down the other three by 2 TD's at home or 1 TD away.

My predictions

1. Ohio State 7-1

2. Wisconsin 6-2 Their style of play and solid defense will see them grind out a lot of wins.

3. Michigan - Iowa 5-3  I think Iowa takes care of Penn State and MSU at home, and beats Michigan on the road but their offense line will see them self destruct a couple of times.  I think Michigan wins a lot of shoot outs, beats MSU at home and PSU on the road, but comes up short against the conferences top teams.

4. MSU-NW 4-4  I'm not too sold on Northwestern, but avoiding OSU and Michigan will see them put up a decent record.  I think Saprty will struggle on the road.

5. Penn State something bad.  Without a functional O-line and QB I can see this team imploding in conference play.

6 Don't Care, just hope we don't end up in this group again.

Michigan: 8-0

Ohio State: 7-1

Iowa: 6-2

Wisconsin: 5-3

Penn State: 4-4

Indiana: 4-4

MSU: 4-4

Purdue: 3-5

Illinois: 3-5

NW: 2-6

Minnesota: 0-8

b10 standings

1. OSU...has both a good offense and great defense

2. WI...good running offense and a good defense

3. IA...may have a good defense but really not much above the 4 th place teams.

4. PSU- good defense and sub-par offense, UM great offense and sub-par defense. MSU average to good offense, average defense.

5. Northwestern- average offense, average defense

6. IU, MN and IL - fair offense, sub-par defenses.

7.) Purdue - sub-par offense and sub-par defense

UM may be the wild card and they could finish up with WI. In fact the WI game in Ann Arbor is one of my upset specials.  They will have major problems with our spread and if we can control their run game, then we have a good chance to beat WI at home.

as per usual, I see us winning a game many expect us NOT to win, and losing a game we really should win.

IME:

2-1 against IU, Illinois & Purdue (1 bad loss that we shouldn't have)

2-1 in the MSU/Iowa/PSU trilogy (this would be a win, IMO, but I have a feeling we lose in Happy Valley)

1-1 vs Wisc/OSU (one of the teams we'll be underdogs to will get Denarded)

best case, IMO, we don't get that bad loss and wind up at 10-2

predicted case, IMO, as above, 9-3

sad panda case: we win the three easy ones, lose against the top (and middle tiers), heading to a Sad Panda Bowl. :(

worst case, we lose one of the easy ones, and implode against the top half of the B10, finishing 6-6, earning a spot in the Sad Panda Express Bowl in Sasketchewan against a CFL practice squad. this case would require a season-ending or chronically debilitating injury to denard.

we'll be fine.

Michigan 0-9 in the Big Ten

• Iowa: home versus Penn State and Michigan State, at Michigan and Northwestern
• Michigan: home versus Iowa and Michigan State, at Penn State, Northwestern off
• Michigan State: at Iowa, Michigan, Northwestern and Penn State
• Northwestern: home versus Iowa and Michigan State, at Penn State, Michigan off (also OSU off)
• Penn State: home versus Michigan, Michigan State, and Northwestern, at Iowa

PSU @ Iowa:  Iowa by 14 or so.  Claybourn makes haggis out of Bolden's innards.

MSU @Iowa:  Iowa  hangs on.

Iowa @ UM:  Iowa's RB corps has by this point been reduced to a walk-on border collie named Squiffy.  MM fears no scatback, Denard throws for 350 and UM rolls by 21.

Iowa @NU:  Shootout.  Iowa wins in OT.

MSU @UM:  RR breaks out some new tricks.  This one gets ugly.  56-24 UM.

UM @PSU:  UM, this one's close.

MSU @ NU: Persa's been held back in the OOC, as Fitz sought in vain a functional running back.  The quest will be abandoned, and Persa will launch 45 or 50 passes, completing 45 or 50 of them against that Spartan back 4 that reminds me of that Python sketch called "Upper Class Twit of The Year Contest" except of course on the class front.  NU by 20.

MSU @ PSU: The Twits handle the Haggis;  ugly.

NU @ PSU:  NU by a TD.  The two best LBs in this game wear purple.

Bonus:  Pryor is injured for at least three games, OSU dropping two of these.  Results:

Michigan: 8-0

NU:  7-1

after that

 who cares?



I will be satisfied with shutting IU up about that "interception" at the end of last year's game. Then I can have a clear conscience when I start focusing on Can't Read Can't Write. No predictions for me. Last year caught me with my pants down.

1. OSU 7-1 (loss to wiscy in mad-town) OSU is the clear favorite for the conference right now.

2. Iowa 6-2

2. Wiscy 6-2

4.Mich 5-3

4. PSU 5-3

4. MSu 5-3

Who cares about the rest.

I believe Wiscy, PSU and Iowa are all over-rated, but are still pretty good football teams capable of beating or losing to anyone. I guess you could put us relatively in that same boat as well due to our incredibly explosive offense and just as incredibly suspect defense. 

Our losses will be OSU (damit!) and two of Wisc, Iowa, PSU, MSU (i really hope not)

After reading everything i just typed, this is very futile. IMHO, we don't know enough about Iowa, Wisc, PSU, us and MSU yet, despite the fact that we expect those 5 teams to round out the top half of the conference behind OSU.

But i am not as "scared" as i was at the beginning of the year of Wisconsin. And i've been saying since before the season that Iowa and PSU were overrated.

should make for an awesome season in conference!

Here's to kicking off the revenge tour on the 9th!!! (but not overlooking IU and pasting them in bloomington)

I will be satisfied with shutting IU up about that "interception" at the end of last year's game. Then I can have a clear conscience when I start focusing on Can't Read Can't Write. No predictions for me. Last year caught me with my pants down.

I will be satisfied with shutting IU up about that "interception" at the end of last year's game. Then I can have a clear conscience when I start focusing on Can't Read Can't Write. No predictions for me. Last year caught me with my pants down.

1. Ohio State 8-0.
I have seen nothing to suggest otherwise, sadly.

2a. Wisconsin 6-2.
I think their lack of non-conference opposition will cost them next weekend against little brother. Too bad they don't play Penn State this season.

2b. Penn State 6-2.
JoePa will retire with about 250 more wins than Bobby Bowden. The NCAA will then discover that Paterno actually died prior to the 2014 season, but Penn State's challenge that the wins can't be withdrawn because no one noticed at the time will hold up in court and the record will stand.

4. Michigan 5-3. (win tiebreaker by beating Iowa and MSU)
The schedule works against them: losses at Penn State and Ohio State plus a home loss to Wisconsin almost keep Michigan home on New Year's, except now there are about 70 bowls on January 1.

5. Iowa 5-3. (win tiebreaker based on win over MSU)
Home field isn't everything: losses to Wisconsin and OSU keep Iowa from repeating last season's lucky run. An extra week off won't keep them from being Denarded at Michigan's homecoming.

6. Michigan State 5-3.
Not bad for not playing OSU, and an early win over Wisconsin makes things look good, but the Spartans just aren't good enough to get any higher than this.

7. Northwestern 4-4.
Minnesota, Purdue, Indiana, Illinois. Good thing they miss out on UM and OSU.

8. Illinois 3-5.
A late-season game with Fresno State gives Zook the chance to sneak into a bowl game. A late-season thrashing by the Bulldogs gives Illinois the chance to hire a new coach.

9. Purdue 2-6.
Of course, they'd be one of the worst 4-8 teams in the country. A win over Indiana allows Purdue to keep the Bucket and Hope to keep his job, much to the dismay of many fans.

10a. Indiana 0-8.
Fred Glass immediately begins negotiations with the Big Ten to play all IU's conference games at neutral sites, hoping eventually to swap in weaker teams so that the Hoosiers can sneak into a bowl game.

10b. Minnesota 0-8.
Good thing they built that outdoor stadium. There's nothing like watching bad football in cold weather.