Before the last possession of the 1st half of the Northwestern game, when they took a timeout, I started wondering: “When the opposing team can hold the ball for the final shot of the 1st half, is it better to intentionally foul if they’re only in the 1-and-1?” So I decide to look at the math…
Assuming for this analysis that every team scores 1.1 points per possession on average, if you don’t foul, and the other team executes properly in not letting you get a shot afterwards, they’ll get 1.1 points on average.
If you do foul: (assuming 75% FT percentage)
Opposing Team: (0.25)*0+(0.75)(0.25)*1+(0.75)(0.75)*2 = 0.1875 + 1.125 = 1.3125 pts
Good Guys: 1.1 pts
In the end, you end up net positive almost 0.9 points! To me, that’s well worth someone getting an additional foul (of your choice), especially if you can substitute in a bench warmer before the play when the other coach calls a timeout to setup. You could also use the opposing team’s timeout to setup your offensive possession, which could increase you average PPP for your next possession.
Have no coaches ever thought of this? Or am I missing something?