Freshman Production of Composite 5 Star WRs

Submitted by Bones032 on March 28th, 2017 at 1:52 PM

We are all excited about finally getting a big time 5 star WR on campus. One of the things we have not had in a while, and a thing that can dynamically change an offense. I have been wondering what kind of impact DPJ might have his freshman year, seeing as true freshman can sometimes have a hard time making a huge impact. I decided to research the freshman years of all the composite 5 star WRs since the start of composite recruiting rankings, which was the year 2000.

First lets look at the composite 5 Star WRs for 2017.

2017

Donovan Peoples-Jones, Michigan - #1 WR, #11 Composite

Tee Higgins, Clemson - #2 WR, #19 Comp

Jerry Jeudy, Alabama - #3 WR, #21 Comp

Joseph Lewis, USC - #4 WR, #31 Comp

 

Below is a chart of the results for the Freshmen years of the players from 2000-2016.

*Comp is their overall composite ranking in the country

*GS stands for Games Started

Random Thoughts at the bottom

Name

School

Rank

Recs

Rec Yds

Rec TDs

Misc

Awards

2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Demetris Robertson

California

#1 WR, #14 Comp

50

767

7

202 KR Yds

Freshman All American

2015

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Calvin Ridley

Alabama

#1 WR, #11 Comp

89

1045

7

11 GS

Freshman All American

George Campbell

Florida State

#2 WR, #18 Comp

3

42

0

0 GS

 

Deon Cain

Clemson

#3 WR, #19 Comp

34

582

5

0 GS

 

Christian Kirk

Texas A&M

#4 WR, #25 Comp

80

1009

7

11 GS, 726 Return Yds, 2 TDs

Freshman All American

Tyron Johnson

LSU

#5 WR, #27 Comp

9

150

2

0 GS

 

2014

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Speedy Noil

Texas A&M

#1 WR, #8 Comp

 46

 583

 5

5 GS, 825 Return Yds

 

Malachai Dupre

LSU

#2 WR, #17 Comp

14

318

5

2 GS

 

Ermon Lane

FSU

#3 WR, #24 Comp

13

267

1

2 GS

 

KD Cannon

Baylor

#4 WR, #30 Comp

58

1030

8

7 GS

Freshman All American

2013

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Laquon Treadwell

Ole Miss

#1 WR, #14 Comp

72

608

5

12 GS

Freshman All American

Robert Foster

Alabama

#2 WR, #23 Comp

 

 

 

Redshrited

 

Robbie Rhodes

Baylor

#3 WR, #28 Comp

10

157

0

0 GS

 

2012

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Dorial Green-Beckham

Missouri

#1 WR, #1 Comp

28

395

5

Suspended for 2 Games

 

Stefon Diggs

Maryland

#2 WR, #8 Comp

54

848

6

934 Return Yds, 2 TDs

Freshman All American

Thomas Johnson

Texas A&M

#3 WR, #33 Comp

30

339

1

Left Program after 10 Games

 

2011

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

George Farmer

USC

#1 WR, #8 Comp

4

42

0

3 KR, 59 KR Yds

 

Jarvis Landry

LSU

#2 WR, #14 Comp

4

42

0

1 KR, 11 KR Yds, 1 PR, 31 PR Yds

 

Sammy Watkins

Clemson

#3 WR, #19 Comp

82

1219

12

826 KR Yds, 1 TD

Freshman All American

Trey Metoyer

Oklahoma

#4 WR, #21 Comp

 

 

 

Prep School

 

2010

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Kyle Prater

USC

#1 WR, #11 Comp

 

 

 

Redshirted due to Injury

 

Mike Davis

Texas

#2 WR, #13 Comp

47

478

2

5 GS, 46 KR Yds

 

Da’Rick Rogers

Tennessee

#3 WR, #16 Comp

11

167

2

16 Carries, 117 Yds, 298 KR Yds

 

Darius White

Texas

#4 WR, #27 Comp

1

5

0

48 KR Yds

 

2009

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Reuben Randle

LSU

#1 WR, #8 Comp

11

173

2

4 GS

 

Andre Debose

UF

#2 WR, #15 Comp

 

 

 

Redshirted due to Injury

 

Marlon Brown

Georgia

#3 WR, #26 Comp

2

15

0

 

 

2008

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Julio Jones

Alabama

#1 WR, #3 Comp

58

924

4

21 KR Yds

Freshman All American

AJ Green

Georgia

#2 WR, #7 Comp

56

963

8

4 Carries, 61 Yds

Freshman All American

DeAndre Brown

Southern Miss

#3 WR, #12 Comp

67

1117

12

 

Freshman All American

Jonathan Baldwin

Pitt

#4 WR, #13 Comp

18

404

3

3 GS

 

Michael Floyd

Notre Dame

#5 WR, #14 Comp

48

719

7

 

 

2007

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Terrance Toliver

LSU

#1 WR, #8 Comp

10

249

3

2 GS, 3 Carries, 36 Yds

 

Arrelious Benn

Illinois

#2 WR, #12 Comp

54

676

2

32 Carries, 158 Yds, 280 Kr Yds, 1 TD

Big 10 Freshman of the Year

Deonte Thompson

UF

#3 WR, #21 Comp

 

 

 

Redshirted

 

2006

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Percy Harvin

UF

#1 WR, #2 Comp

41

428

3

34 Carries, 427 Yds, 2 TDs

Freshman All American

Vidal Hazelton

USC

#2 WR, #3 Comp

1

8

0

1 Carry, 7 Yds

 

2005

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Patrick Turner

USC

#1 WR, #2 Comp

12

170

2

 

 

Derrick Williams

PSU

#2 WR, #4 Comp

22

289

1

22 Carries, 105 Yds, 3 TDs, 274 KR Yds

 

Fred Rouse

FSU

#3 WR, #5 Comp

6

114

1

204 Return Yds

 

DeSean Jackson

California

#4 WR, #22 Comp

38

601

7

8 Carries, 48 Yards, 1 PR for a 49 Yd TD

 

2004

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Early Doucet

LSU

#1 WR, #5 Comp

18

257

2

1 PR, 16 Yds

Freshman All-SEC

Fred Davis

USC

#2 WR, #14 Comp

4

30

0

 

 

Cameron Colvin

Oregon

#3 WR, #16 Comp

14

191

2

1 GS, 2 Carries, 7 Yds

 

Xavier Carter

LSU

#4 WR, #17 Comp

5

118

2

3 Carries, 7 Yds, 203 KR Yds

 

Calvin Johnson

Georgia Tech

#5 WR, #23 Comp

48

837

7

3 Carries, 10 Yds

Freshman All American

Lance Leggett

Miami

#6 WR, #24 Comp

17

349

4

6 GS

 

Dwayne Jarrett

USC

#7 WR, #35 Comp

55

849

13

8 GS

Freshman All American

2003

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Whitney Lewis

USC

#1 WR, #2 Comp

 

 

 

Redshirted due to Academics

 

Andre Caldwell

UF

#2 WR, #7 Comp

19

174

0

1 Carry, 3 Yds, 454 KR Yds

Freshman All-SEC

Chad Jackson

UF

#3 WR, #23 Comp

3

38

1

2 KR for 47 Yds

 

Robert Meachum

Tennessee

#4 WR, #25 Comp

 

 

 

Redshirted due to Injury

 

2002

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Ryan Moore

Miami

#1 WR, #3 Comp

1

29

0

Redshirted after 3 games

 

DiShon Platt

FSU

#2 WR, #18 Comp

 

 

 

Academic Bust, left school

 

Marquis Johnson

Texas

#3 WR, #24 Comp

 

 

 

Prep School

 

Ben Obomanu

Auburn

#4 WR, #31 Comp

17

224

3

 

 

2001

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Roscoe Crosby

Clemson

#1 WR, #3 Comp

23

296

3

 

 

Reggie Williams

Washington

#2 WR, #4 Comp

55

973

3

 

Freshman All American

Dominic Robinson

FSU

#3 WR, #15 Comp

 

 

 

16 PR, 162 PR Yds

 

Michael Clayton

LSU

#4 WR, #19 Comp

47

754

6

2 Carries, 35 Yds, 1 TD

Freshman All-SEC

Airese Currie

Clemson

#5 WR, #41 Comp

17

315

1

4 Carries, -4 Yds

 

2000

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Charles Rogers

MSU

#1 WR, #3 Comp

 

 

 

Redshirted due to Academics

 

BJ Johnson

Texas

#2 WR, #7 Comp

41

698

3

6 Carries, 29 Yds

 

Roy Wiliams

Texas

 

40

809

8

2 carries, 75 yds, 2 TDs

Big 12 Freshman of the year

Willie Dixon

Miami

#4 WR, #27 Comp

 

 

 

Academic Bust, left school

 

Johnnie Morant

Syracuse

#5 WR, #30 Comp

 

 

 

Played in 3 games, no stats

 

Sloan Thomas

Texas

#6 WR, #35 Comp

9

208

3

 

 

 

Including the 2017 class, there has been a total of 71 Composite 5 Star WRs since 2000.

71 Total WRs

Breakdown by School

LSU – 8

USC – 8

Texas – 6

Clemson – 5

FSU – 5

UF – 5

Alabama – 4

Miami – 3

TAMU – 3

Baylor – 2

Cal – 2

Georgia – 2

Tennessee – 2

1 Each - Auburn, Georgia Tech, Illinois, Maryland, Michigan, Michigan St., Missouri, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Oregon, Pitt, Penn St., Southern Miss, Syracuse, Washington

Breakdown by conference

SEC - 27

ACC - 16

Pac12 - 12

Big12 - 9

Big10 - 5

Other - 2

 

Random Observations

-DPJ will be the first for UM.  

-Insane that LSU has had the most with such anemic passing offenses.

-No BIG 10 School has had more than 1.

-No school north of Tennessee has had more than 1.

-Ohio State has 0.

-14 Freshman All Americans, which is 20% of the total.

-8 players redshirted

-4 players didn’t qualify academically and never attended the school

 

That means 59 players played their freshman years.

21 had over 500 yds Receiving

19 had atleast 5 Receiving Tds

21 did some return duties

Comments

The Maizer

March 28th, 2017 at 2:06 PM ^

This is interesting. I would think DPJ might be at a slight advantage compared to the field here with regards to stat potential because two graduating seniors have departed. Should get lots of playing time.

DrMantisToboggan

March 28th, 2017 at 2:10 PM ^

Well since we know that DPJ has qualified and will not redshirt, you're telling me that there's about a 36% chance that he grabs at least 500yds receiving and a 24% chance that he earns Freshman All American honors. I like his chances there. 

stephenrjking

March 28th, 2017 at 2:21 PM ^

Great rundown, glad to see this.

There are some funny ratings in there (Fred Davis was a higher-ranked prospect than Calvin Johnson, huh). But a lot of these guys were really good. 

I don't know that it's reasonable for us to expect Ridley-level production, as the rest of the offense will not function at the level of Alabama's, but 22 guys exceeded 35 catches (Jehu Chesson's total for last year) and that seems reasonable to expect. With a possibility for a lot more. 

As others have stated, DPJ won't be playing behind another established #1 guy. If picks things up well enough he could have a monster season/career. The names on that list include some disappointments, but it is peppered with guys like Ridley, Julio Jones, AJ Green, Sammy Watkins, even Laquon Treadwell: Guys who made huge contributions as freshman and were dominant for their entire careers.

I would enjoy that.

Ali G Bomaye

March 30th, 2017 at 9:29 AM ^

Ridley's numbers were somewhat inflated by the fact that Lane Kiffin likes to force-feed his top WR the ball. He did it at USC with Robert Woods (111 catches in 2011) and Marqise Lee (118 catches in 2012), and at Alabama with Amari Cooper (124 catches in 2014). Put in that context, Ridley's 89 catches as a freshman in 2015 aren't that surprising, especially since that team didn't have any other established WRs (Ardarius Stewart was the second-leading receiver in 2015, and he had 12 career catches before that year).

UMinSF

March 28th, 2017 at 2:22 PM ^

Thanks for crunching the numbers.

Main takeaway I get is that based on past 5*, it's pretty much as likely we'll get nothing at all from DPJ next year as it is he'll become a frosh AA. Patience.

That said, IMO it's more likely he'll more resemble the successful guys than the washouts:

 - He seems like a great kid and excellent student, so off-field washout is unlikely. 

 - Harbaugh and our coaching staff should find ways to use him, even if he's not fully ready to take a starring role.

- Losing our top receivers to graduation presents opportunity, but we have plenty of young guys competing for snaps/catches.

One other thing to note: Almost all the Frosh AA's went on to become big-time NFL stars. Just shows there are a rare few guys who are just destined for greatness.  Let's hope DPJ is one of them!

stephenrjking

March 28th, 2017 at 3:09 PM ^

By my count, 37 of the 71 listed failed to achieve 20 catches in their freshman seasons, putting them below the 2 catches per game I am arbitrarily setting (with no grounds whatsoever) as a barometer for a significant contribution in a season.

I didn't count, but a significant number of those, probably a majority, did not play due to redshirts or discipline or injuries.

"Washout" might not be a good word here, because it's possible for a guy to have a nothing first year and achieve later success. Though a lot of the misses in the first year were due to issues that persisted later on. 

But from a raw numbers perspective it's not insane to suggest that there's a 50/50 shot that DPJ doesn't contribute significantly his first season. That leaves out some detail, though, since we consider DPJ failing to play to be unlikely due to his good academics and the lack of older talent ahead of him. If you take out the missed seasons and then recalculate, you can say that a decided majority of the receivers that played significantly contributed significantly as well.

UMinSF

March 28th, 2017 at 3:29 PM ^

of the OP and my comment is freshman production. The word "washout" was poorly chosen.

Based on the chart, ~1/3 of the 5* receivers (23/71) had 5 or fewer catches - zero or tiny production.

Almost 1/2 had fewer than 15 catches - relatively minimal contribution. 

Just over half had more than 15 catches (and sometimes other production from carries or KR)

Heck, most of my post referred to my optimism that DPJ will end up on the productive side of the ledger.

My point is simply that while we all hope DPJ becomes a freshman phenom, it's a good idea to show some patience. 

 

UMfan21

March 28th, 2017 at 2:48 PM ^

curious if there are any trends with the QB throwing to these guys, and whether or not they were the primary WR.

my gut tells me DPJ should get a boost by having an experienced senior QB. But he will probably face a challenge being the #1 WR and drawing the opponents best DB.

Bones032

March 28th, 2017 at 4:37 PM ^

Yeah they must have a hell of a pitch for WRs.

Also its crazy that Clemson has had as many 5 Star WRs as the entire Big 10 since 2000. I know they just won the title, but its not like they have been Alabama for the last decade. 

Cal has had twice as many as any BIg 10 school. Cal.

Only 11 of the 71 have gone to northern schools. I guess this kind of athlete really does like playing in warm weather. Really reminds you how much of a disadvantage it is for Michigan to recruit based on their location, atleast for certain postion groups.

BoFlex

March 28th, 2017 at 9:50 PM ^

I'm a little surprised by Ohio State's lack of 5* WRs.

I know they haven't been a powerhouse for WR talent in the last 2 decades, but I'm surprised not one of Ted Ginn, Santonio Holmes, Antonio Gonzales, Devier Posey, Corey Brown, Devin Smith or Michael Thomas were composite 5*.

UMAmaizinBlue

March 29th, 2017 at 8:53 AM ^

"Looks at all these elite receivers we've missed out on over the last 10 years!" This list would be more painful if it weren't for DPJ, so we've got that going for us...

smwilliams

March 29th, 2017 at 5:02 PM ^

A quick glance seems to indicate that as recruiting coverage got more refined, that players have started to be ranked more appropriately and we're seeing more freshmen contribute. 

Somebody mentioned it above, but I think expecting him to come close to Chesson's production from last season is more than attainable. I know Bill C.'s method considers returning receiving production to be very important, but I think Crawford and DPJ are very solid replacements for Darboh and Chesson. Add in McDoom doing his hybrid slot thing and Perry hopefully coming back and there's a lot of talent at receiver. 

Mongo

March 29th, 2017 at 5:11 PM ^

what is happening with Grant Perry's court case? Usually these HYTA cases get wrapped up quickly. Once granted and his probation is set, can he return to practice?

CHI_BLU

March 29th, 2017 at 10:15 PM ^

WOW! Great info.....I wonder how well the running game was for some of the 5* that did not do well their FR year was, compared to those who had better #'s

BrownJuggernaut

March 30th, 2017 at 6:47 PM ^

Looking forward to The Peoples Jones taking over this year. Some of the catches he made for Cass were beyond ridiculous. I'm glad that Wilton will have a guy that he can just say "whatever, fuck it." Hopefully, not in the Matt Stafford-Calvin Johnson way, but in a I have no other options way. I want Wilt to make good decisions first, which is what I feel separates winning quarterbacks from others. It's good to have a guy that will make plays for you. I think that Michigan has had speed at the WR position and Darboh and Chesson made some plays, but I think that DPJ is on another level. Really excited for what he'll bring to the table.

rob f

March 31st, 2017 at 1:49 AM ^

but not so sure he'll get a lot of balls thrown his way as a freshman. He's got some very talented freshmen wr's coming in alongside him in this recruiting class and is potentially going to have to share playing time with Black and/or Collins and/or Martin.