Five Games Down, Some Hard Games To Go: Conference Play So Far

Submitted by LSAClassOf2000 on January 22nd, 2014 at 9:38 AM

FIVE GAMES DOWN, SOME HARD GAMES TO GO

We’ve experienced just short of a third of the conference schedule now, and in a trend that I know we would love to see extended, so far we’ve come out unscathed. The highlight so far, at least in my opinion, is a very nice win against Palpatine and his Badgers in a place where we have not won since the days of Brian Ellerbe coaching and LaVell Blanchard MVP-ing, if you will.

Here are the summary averages for the last five games:

 

MICHIGAN

OPPONENT

Field Goal %

53.62%

44.77%

Three Point %

40.23%

30.52%

Effective FG%

60.71%

50.48%

Free Throw %

70.51%

80.62%

Off. Rebound %

22.27%

28.32%

Def. Rebound %

71.68%

77.73%

Assist / Turnover Ratio

1.83

0.99

True Shooting %

63.99%

54.38%

Free Throw Rate

35.36%

24.91%

Possessions

59.68

61.08

Points / Possession

1.22

1.04

Turnover %

13.64%

16.57%

 

There are only so many conclusions you can draw based on five conference games, but the trend in a lot of areas so far has been up or steady against the conference when compared to non-conference average.

For example, we are actually shooting better in the conference so far, averaging 60.71% for an effective field goal percentage, up almost 6% from what we were averaging in the first 12 games of the season. We’re also getting more efficient in conference play, it seems. We maintain a 1.22 points per possession average for the conference games and for the non-conference, but we’re maintaining it with fewer possessions in conference play so far (averaging about 60, as you see above, down from 65 in the non-conference schedule). To date, you will also note that we’ve gotten by on some nice ball handling as well with the assist-to-turnover ratio for Michigan average nearly double that of our conference opponents so far.

I would expect all these numbers to moderate going into the next five or six games too, but so far what we have seen has been pretty good, I would think.

FOUR FACTORS:

This time, we’ll focus on the so-called Four Factors, or stats which have been shown to be pretty indicative of winning (or losing) in basketball. Here they are in convenient graph form - as with the last diary, blue is us, red is not:

 photo FFG-EffectiveFG_zpsaa6657d4.png  photo FFG-OffReb_zps14c10238.png  photo FFG-FreeThrowRate_zpsb078b84f.png  photo FFG-TurnoverPct_zps33bac92c.png

If these tell a story of conference play so far, then what they tell us is that we’re getting by on being a very accurate shooting team. We’ve also been very disciplined with the ball, only exceeding our opponent’s turnover percentage once (Wisconsin), and we’ve gotten to the line a little more than our opponents as well, only losing this battle once as well (Nebraska). Offensive rebounding has been a little more inconsistent, and I suspect it is a battle we will definitely need to win in some of the upcoming games.

SOME OTHER DATA:

Here are a few other metrics (again, we're in blue, of course) –

 photo FFG-ATRatio_zpsa67a7138.png  photo FFG-PointsPoss_zpse02a9ed6.png  photo FFG-TrueShootinh_zpsb2a4e045.png  photo FFG-DefReb_zps5f4fbb72.png

Here again, disciplined ball handling, accurate shooting and as you can see simply being efficient have been the main drivers behind the success so far, and hopefully the momentum continues.

OBLIGATORY:

Comments

ish

January 22nd, 2014 at 3:26 PM ^

the best part of our fast start is that we can go just over .500 for the rest of the year in conference and probably get a 5 seed.

Michigania

January 22nd, 2014 at 11:25 PM ^

Walton and Irvin are rising in a huge way. And Albrecht is so underrated even still. GR3 seems to play better without Burke. And we are gonna miss Morgan next year.
Gotta say it feels scary to think if we also lose mcGary next year with no bigs.

Uncle Rico

January 24th, 2014 at 8:58 AM ^

Likely have Horford backup up by Beilfeldt at C, with Donnal starting at the 4 as a RFr.  

But yes, we'd be very very thin up front, maybe even needing us to play Ricky Doyle as a Tr Fr.

With MMG not seeing the court again this season, I don't see him ultimately projected into the 1st round.  And if that's the case, more than likely he'd return (crossing fingers).

 

SF Wolverine

January 23rd, 2014 at 9:18 AM ^

Nik has exceeded expectations, and may well continue to do so, bu the story so far is how many people have contributed.  The two-headed beast called Morford is as efficient as you can be (radio said they were 1-2 in the B10 in FG%).  And every night, whether it is Walton, Spike or LeVert, one or more of the other guards shows up.  Lots of ways this team can hurt you right now.  Best thing I saw against iowa was improved team D, and focus on the loose balls and glass.  They add those things regularly to the offense and they will be a tough team to beat the rest of the way.

Also, in light of the Minnesota win, we can confirm that road wins in the B10 are good.