A Final Look at Big Ten Remaining Schedules

Submitted by GOLBOGM on March 4th, 2013 at 11:44 PM

A fifth and final look at the remaining schedules:

Past Versions:

#1:http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules

#2: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-2

#3: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-3

#4: http://mgoblog.com/diaries/look-big-ten-remaining-schedules-4

Similar Read:

http://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/rooting-interests-btt-seeding

Take a look at joeyb's write-up in the board section about rooting interests- he does a good job at describing potential outcomes.  Seeding will likely be a hot mess...

Current Standings:

TEAM RECORD
INDIANA 13-3
MICHIGAN 11-5
MICHIGAN ST 11-5
OHIO ST 11-5
WISCONSIN 11-5
ILLINOIS 8-8
MINNESOTA 8-8
IOWA 7-9
PURDUE 7-9
NEBRASKA 4-12
NORTHWESTERN 4-12
PENN ST 1-15

Who has the hardest schedule?:

  GAME 17 GAME 18
INDIANA Tue- OSU Sun- @ MICH
MICHIGAN Wed- @ PURD Sun- INDIANA
MICHIGAN ST Th- WISC Sun- NW
OHIO ST Tue- @ INDIANA Sun- ILLINOIS
WISCONSIN Th- @ MSU Sun- @ PSU

In the past I have made scoring systems to rank upcoming schedule etc.- think with two games left that is not necessary.  OSU has the toughest in my mind because @Indiana.  Indiana has a tough schedule as well- but has co-champ locked down.  Wisconsin has two road games, but @MSU and @PSU is easier that Indiana at home and @Purdue in my mind- but I think they will likely lose @MSU.  MSU has the easiest schedule left in my mind- two home games and NW- but they are on a skid...

Thoughts on remaining teams:

Indiana: Already guaranteed at least a split.  They do have two tough games- home against Ohio State and away in Crisler.  Everyone else is rooting for them to lose both- because if not- we have an undisputed champ. OSU will be a tough game, but I don’t think it is probable Indiana loses its last home game.  I think it is still 50-50 against us.  I think they are the better team- but we are very solid at home- and played them well in Indiana.  They have will be playing to wrap up a 1 seed regardless of Big Ten Tournament as well.

Michigan: Well last week was weird… PSU loss really sucks no way around it.  Have to respect PSU playing hard all year- and glad that didn’t go undefeated- but really not glad what it means for a title chance and that the win was against us.  50-50 against Indiana, and at Purdue is looking quite winnable- but with our road struggles it gives me pause.

Michigan State: Let’s see if MSU’s slide continues. Northwestern has fallen apart- and at home that should be an easy W.  I personally hope they beat Wisconsin because I don’t want Wisconsin having a shot a shared title- although I think Indiana has that taken care of (let’s hope I’m wrong).

Ohio State: Last week they looked very out of it- only to have Michigan blow a gimme, MSU go on a big slide, and Indiana give them some semblance of hope.  At Indiana is huge for everybody- and rooting for OSU will be cringe worthy- but my god that would be huge.  If we beat Purdue and OSU pulls the upset Sunday could be one hell of a night.

Wisconsin: At MSU is a tough one and I covered that above.  Let’s hope PSU can get win number 2 (or 3?) as well.  Wish we had Wisconsin at home- don’t think they would keep us too close at home.  If we play them in Big Ten Tournament I would not be too worried… but seriously f*** Wisconsin.

Championship Odds:

  15-3 14-4 13-5 12-6 or Worse
INDIANA 20% 70% 10% N/A
MICHIGAN N/A N/A 45% 55%
MICHIGAN ST N/A N/A 65% 35%
OHIO ST N/A N/A 20% 80%
WISCONSIN N/A N/A 35% 65%

Indiana has wrapped up a split- and is clearly in great shape for it to be a solo champion.  I say only 10% chance they lose to OSU and us with having so much to play for, being so consistent, and having a home game.  And for non-Indiana teams 2 losses is all anyone cares about for the boys from Bloomington.

I say MSU has the best odd at staying with 5-losses.  Wisconsin at home will be tough, but NW should not be.

We have the next best bet because I think we will take care of business at Purdue- but that could be too optomistic given our road struggles of late.

Wisconsin has at PSU, so if they can beat MSU in EL they have a decent shot at stay with 5 L's.

OSU plays at Indiana and will paly Illinois at home- with Illinois wanting to be at 500 and make the tournament- so they have the longest odds. 

Let's hope OSU wins (I know... gross) so Sunday will be interesting!  And let's hope we take care of business on the road at Purdue!

Sometimes it seems like the Big Ten is just so crazy analyzing it is pointless- and I hope this is also one of those times- because that would mean the year ended in crazy fashion- and that is needed for a split-championship!

Comments

michigan24

March 6th, 2013 at 1:58 AM ^

Wow the depth in the Big Ten is unparalleled. 7/12 teams in the league will make the tournament with a possibility of an 8th in Iowa which would mean 2/3 teams in the Big Ten got into the tourney. Wow.